Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-24
Gao Hua Securities detailed analysis of the negative factors facing the Shanghai Airport Authority In a March 14 report, Gao Hua Securities (the actual for the Goldman Sachs by Holdings) to give an analyst BingChao Cao Shanghai Airport "synchronous big city / neutral" rating, and a more detailed analysis of the company's face bad factor.
The analysts believe the Shanghai Airport in the most ominous domestic counterparts, face a major uncertainty, such as the huge depreciation costs, shrinking investment income and so on. Because do not see any specific stimulation, the analyst believes the stock is unlikely that the short-term rebound. The analysts give the stock ratings of major cities simultaneously, based on discounted cash flow valuation of the 12-month target price of 11.80 yuan, which means that 2% of the potential drop.
The analysts believe that the company's major risks, including regional economic slowdown, the potential asset reorganization, Development and Reform Commission's price reform (the first half of 2006 may affect the Shanghai Airport Authority, in its stake in subsidiary oil company), convertible bonds issued by the quantity and timing of the Pudong International Airport (all listed companies) and the Hong Qiao Airport (parent Airport Group all) of the long-term competitiveness, etc., and feel the market is also more cautious on these issues.
The analysts expect the company's earnings per share growth is likely to lag behind the growth in traffic is expected to Shanghai Pudong International Airport 06 and in 2007 passenger traffic growth rates were 22% and 14%, while the corresponding growth rate in earnings per share growth may be only 15% and 9%, while the market consensus forecast of 05-07 year earnings per share compound annual growth rate of 17%. Projected 2008 earnings per share will decrease by 11%, mainly due to two stages of expansion brought about the financial costs and depreciation charges. Moreover, I believe that once the expansion of Hongqiao Airport, Pudong International Airport will reduce passenger traffic, so the expected earnings per share for 2008-2010 Shanghai Airport will decline.
The analyst in Shanghai between the airport and its parent company's assets are not optimistic about the prospects for reorganization. Management has said it would not seek to Hongqiao Airport of its assets in overseas listing. The analysts believe that the parent company to Hongqiao Airport of assets into the listed company is unlikely, but may do as the parent company of Shenzhen Airport, and the listed company to do a small-scale asset replacement.
(Securities pass Hint: Deutsche Bank report on March 8 raised its rating to buy the airports in Shanghai, is mainly based on the status of the parent company to maintain its holding could be injected into high-quality assets, as well as the World Expo, the Olympics, magnetic levitation and other good, but also suggests the rationalization program, poor performance and the risk of avian influenza. this from a different point of view to analyze the Shanghai airport, more emphasis on the bearish factor. Although the conclusions of both reports are not totally consistent, but the process is complementary, not contradictory. suggested a merging of Germany bank's comparative reading of the report.) (Securities-pass)
