Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-08-24
Source: Eastern Wisdom
Following the launch of bad macroeconomic policies, the market understood as "advantage of this opportunity, Zaishangtaijie." Just four trading days index will be recouped. Most, however, returns to investors before the district did not return to the level of 5.30, looking back at good-bye 4300 points, the market missing subtle changes have taken place. Market's ability to drive straight back to the first half of the trend? This should be the day for investors to seriously consider!
Severe liquidity into the market, market trends can make the slope becomes more steep. First half of 2007, the market is expected to make money effect and the bull market is extremely popular. Stock indexes continued to record high, creating a boiling point, trading volume and turnover are making the Great Leap Forward-style growth. The sudden policy by the end of May the event also made in a high valuation of the market to panic, and the emergence of huge volatility. Now face is whether the stock return to the 4300 points, represents the adjustment of the end? And to determine the trend of the market outlook, we believe that the supply of funds and also from the same point of view of operation of the market trends, outlook in the second half, with the disturbance and policy factors on the flow of pursuit and interception in the second half would be much better than the first half of liquidity ample , especially in the current low stock market value is no longer under the conditions of operation of the market can determine the slope would be greatly reduced. However, if the release of the second half of liquidity has become more orderly, it will be positive on the market a long time. Commercial banks in the "early benefit from lending as early as" driven by this year the first 5 months, credit has accumulated 70% of annual plan, in the second half was forced to shrink delivery is expected in the event, which is macro-level considerations .
Referring again to the concept of respect, we think we can consider the market within the capital and outside the capital two aspects. First, the 5.30 adjustment of stamp duty can be said to investors on a risk-solid education classes, small investors eager to invest significantly suffered heavy losses, there are clear signs of outflow. The venue is the main capital funds, this part of the current position of institutional investors heavier, activities, limited in scope. Then I was pinned high hopes on the sidelines of funds approach, from a rational point of view, the market plunged 5.30 straight after the four fund companies to obtain approval at the same time, this is stopped for a long period of time the concentration of open - gate turn on the water, but for such a review of the new funds, or increase the amount of the insurance funds, QFII and many other contemporary face a very real problem is that it can not macro-control effects, and has a variety of valuation advantage of fewer and fewer growing stock picking was not easy. Hence, whether inside or outside the capital adequacy to be weaker than the surface of the first half of the slope will be slow to run stock.
The combination of the specific to the market level, the China Ocean issuing price-earnings ratio hit a new high after the listing is a continuous strong, premium space for growing, exactly a premium level of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Vietnam after the listing of the shadow of the bigger blow. So what exactly causes this phenomenon? We think it is mainly in the use of management's more of a multi-layer financial market system to establish a means to divert, that is, by increasing market supply to ease the process of the bubble. Current investors in the second half is also very sensitive to a large expansion, this market is very favorable. Because if there is no serious investor thought the market would continue to rise. However, a more worrying is the high premium red chips issued A shares, so the increase in IPO bubble in the bubble bigger than the market had on the market is very negative. Therefore, the slope of the future changes in the market depends on the bubble elimination process. It is difficult to estimate the level of static, but it is certain is that the only sound is the best run trends in the movement of twists and turns will have serious consequences on the stock market, and therefore speeding the day of broad market rebound in the process, investors should maintain sufficient reason.
