Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-22
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: With the broader market gradually moved toward a final climax, leading to the market turning two key factors will play a role, the market face a major adjustment of the pattern, investors should be wary of this at any time and to the structural risk ......
In our view, as the market gradually moving towards a final climax, the market's pattern will face a major correction in the market turn to two key factors will play a role, investors should be wary of this at any time and to the structural risk.
1, at present stage is the climax of the final phase of the market
In our previous article, has repeatedly emphasized, the ICBC listing will provoke a bull market in the last wave of madness, this wave of bull market is to achieve management's most important goal (ICBC IPO) and the use of policy tools to build out, the real on the distortion of the market are supposed to be running track, manipulation policy is bound to have stronger city of adjustment to correct the rising bubbles accumulated in the course.
The bull market run in the final round of the process, banks can pull Taiwan's index, but also for the ICBC to create a vibrant atmosphere of the stocks listed on a large extent, act as the main force in the market upside, this point also, and our projections do not seek the together. But investors to fully enjoy this last crazy at the same time, we should not be calling for a market confused by the sound of cattle, nor an index deceived by the appearance of a red light hanging, the market risk in the process of madness are step by step approach.
Of course, we believe the market will remain in the final frenzied phase of the operation of the process of twists and turns continue for some time, from the short term still has operational value.
Second, the market will lead to a turning point of the two key factors
In the future market, causing a key factor in turning the market where this is discussed in this section has been a major problem. What is a small non-lifting of the ban, issuing new shares, or expansion of the central bank's monetary policy? In fact, fundamentally speaking, the two will ultimately determine the market direction:
1, the SFC's goals into
The main objective of this year, the Commission continued to adjust in order to escort stock reform dominated the first half, but after July should be amended to escort stock reform and the expansion of both, on the eve of the bank issuing the policy is to support the market also reflects the expansion of this goal head. Upon completion of the above two objectives will require a sustained bull market match, so this bull market is in such a context has a solid basis of a policy.
However, the following personnel changes with the start of the SFC policy is bound to the emergence of a corresponding period of the neutral gear, the SFC and other departments of the market manipulation and the ability to adjust to a certain extent, being undermined. In addition, the SFC personnel changes in this process, strengthening the power distribution sector, which also implies a management team will continue to increase the intensity of policy signals expansion, which is what the market is probably not a good thing, not least because the bank issued and given policy of cake can only be regarded as a special case, the impact of expansion of the market itself bound or bad in nature.
2, significant changes in the pattern of macroeconomic
Apparent effect of macro-control and industry laws governing the operation cycle of the pattern of significant changes in macroeconomic fundamental reason.
By the central government in macro-control policy-oriented macro-control posted to direct changes in personnel changes, will make the effect of macro-control gradually revealed. "Chen Incident" fully demonstrate a principle, policy and personnel are closely related, but also the so-called "People, do regardless," rely on people to do things, people according to the needs of things to arrange, to some extent to understand the "people's whereabouts," it will generally aware of the "context matter."
This event can actually be seen as macro-control of a new beginning, that is "only talk and no action" to "not only the rain thunder," because of a variety of regulatory policies of local government inconsistent and difficult to implement the actual situation will be completely improved macro-control effects of the current actually start to appear.
Running from the industrial cycle, the laws of speaking, and the investment in fixed assets is closely related to a cyclical industry that is already running high, their long-term trend will be down, which will lead to groups of related stocks continued to take the bear.
In general, the pattern of macroeconomic significant changes will occur, and all this will be reflected in the stock market.
3, the stock market face a major adjustment of the pattern of
Based on the above two points, we believe that market is the advent of the last high tide, it should also consider the strategic investors should start when the retreat.
Meanwhile, the current round of downward adjustment in the market will be structural in nature. Subject to the impact of macro-control, and fixed assets investment in closely related industries and individual stocks will be the focus of this round of adjustment. Macro and global economic growth may slow down the backdrop, this part of the performance of listed companies growth rate will slow down.
In accordance with the laws of economic development in the past, in which case the frequent occurrence of intra-industry consolidation, industry merger and reorganization will be the future economic development of a major trend. That the main trend of economic development, determination of asset classes into the subject matter is bound to be financial institutions the focus of the future surgeon. In addition, consumption and technological innovation and also because it is the main trends in future economic development and become a market capitalization of the focus of attention.
Therefore, we recommend that investors started to consider response to the onset of systemic risk, while focusing on avoiding and fixed assets investment in stocks closely related to the same time, strengthen the future economic development in line with the prevailing trend - the concept of asset injection, consumption upgrading and independent innovation themes such as the depth of excavation.
