Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-03-09
In the actual market operation, the analysis of basic economic factors, all through the collection, collation and analysis of national economic development, reflected in all aspects of economic indicators (economic statistics) to make the. In today's world, the U.S. dollar remains the country's foreign exchange reserves of the major currencies, the United States economic data the greatest impact on the market, international investors are concerned about the U.S. economy figures to seize investment opportunities.
The U.S. government released economic data can be divided into: leading indicators, coincident indicators and lagging indicators. These include:
1. Leading indicators (Leading Indicator)
Leading indicator of future economic development impact of the economic indicators statistics. Market analysts often refer to these indicators analysis of future economic growth and its effect on the future direction of the impact of exchange-rate developments.
2. Coincident indicators and lagging indicators (Concurrent Indicator and Lagging Indicator)
Synchronous changes in indicators of the time and basically the same as the general economic situation, changes in the timing of lagging indicators tend to lag behind changes in general economic conditions. These two types of indicators can show the general trend of economic development and to establish or to negative leading indicator of economic trends indicate, but they can also be seen through the depth of economic change. The more important index of coincident indicators and lagging indicators are:
(1) gross domestic product (GDP)
Gross national product is a country in a given period (year, quarter) of all money that the aggregate value of goods and services. It is the summary of the entire national economy is to fully reflect a country's economic strength and level of economic development of a comprehensive index system. Usually higher GDP means that United States economic development, the better, rising interest rates, the dollar sign of strength.
(2) the unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate)
Unemployment is also on behalf of economic development, good or bad sign. The rise in unemployment, means that the economic disruption; lower unemployment rate, it means that the momentum of economic development, enhanced.
(3) retail sales index (Retail Sales Index)
Retail Index is a cash purchase on credit and credit indicators, which reflects the situation of social spending and overall economic activity. Higher retail sales index showed that the full social consumption, economic development potential, rising interest rates, the dollar exchange rate when rising.
(4) personal consumption expenditures (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Personal consumption expenditures, including personal purchase of both goods and services spending is a measure of an important indicator of consumer spending.
(5) Industrial Production Index (Industrial Production)
Industrial production indices reflect the total U.S. production and manufacturing production, usually in line with national economic development. The higher the level of industrial production, economic development momentum of the better, more capital investment, thus boosting the U.S. dollar exchange rate.
(6) The National Association of Purchasing Managers index (NAPM)
NAPM index is generally the first Monday of each month announced that the manufacturing sector reflect the level of activity, often revealing much earlier than the unemployment rate last month, the seeds of development and changes in economic activity. A reading above 50 percent is considered the expansion of the manufacturing sector, below 50% would mean the economy is shrinking.
(7) business inventories (Business Inventory)
Business inventories to reflect the commercial sector of the short-term credit needs. Business inventories increased, may give rise to short-term interest rates, so that the economic slowdown that the economy may enter a standstill, may indicate a serious recession began.
(8) plant operating rate (Housing Starts)
Used to measure the existing situation of idle plant and equipment. Capacity utilization rose, indicating the beginning of economic expansion. Typically 80% of the operating rate of the equipment is considered a normal idle plant and equipment, 83% -85% or more means that the economy is facing inflationary pressure, the pressure of rising interest rates also larger.
(9) Factory Orders (Factory Order)
Factory orders reflect the consumers, companies or government of the future output demand.
(10) housing starts (Housing Starts)
The rate of housing starts is a measure of the level of activity indicators for the construction industry, while the construction industry has often changes in the economic cycle in the leading industry. The rate of housing starts increased, suggesting the economy tends to expand.
(11) Consumer Price Index (Consumer Price Index, CPI)
Consumer Price Index reflects the consumers have to pay the price of goods or services change, that is, changes in the level of inflation. If the CPI increased significantly, from the short term, contribute to rising interest rates, thereby supporting the exchange rate strong; from a long-term perspective, in essence, the currency devaluation.
Consumer Price Index published monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor. It has two different kinds of consumer price index: one is the staff and workers in the consumer price index, referred to as CPIW; the other is the urban consumer price index, referred to as CPIU. As CPIU index statistics CPIW twice the range, which reflects the nature of higher consumer prices, reference, and thus received by the market at large.
(12) PPI (Producer Price Index, PPI)
Producer price index reflects the cost of production of goods last month, showing status of raw material price changes, which could then expect the future trend of change in consumer prices. Rise in the index means that inflationary pressures. Of course, the fact that the indicators are not included in all commodities discounts, so sometimes exaggerate the speed of price increases.
