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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
I have the difficult nature of such a breakthrough, complexity, uncertainty, already have sufficient understanding of the full and sober, and I know that I devoted all his life can not be completed entirely the possibility of such a breakthrough there. But I knew that my heart referred to in that direction, is beyond speculation, beyond the transaction, and even beyond the market, and almost near the Road of Life in that direction, regardless of whether the arrival of, at least, I have to adjust the direction of their own , targeting her, and then made my pace.
It is often said a word, in the futures market, discipline and attitude control of anything else. However, I have to bluntly pointed out, all the prerequisite is that you must have a perfect market-tested trading system, otherwise, there is the danger of empty words.
In my own practice, I have the final design and improve their own trading system, the mind naturally more stable, confident, and you are bound to use the most stringent system of discipline to follow your instructions to act signal, as against his will place your very unfavorable position. You and your trading system fully run-in and you can be sure that the success of your trading system, sensitive to cope with most of the changes in the market, you will find that making money through trading, in fact, is a relaxed, happy, natural, ripe things . Everything becomes harmonious, you will eventually stay away from, and bid farewell to a loss, this is my personal experience.
In fact, I have these experiences, for a friend entering the speculative trades, there is no use, or that are empty words. However, I am friends advice is that we must build for your own trading system, whether you're slapping the badly battered by the market, you have to stand up again, and then improve your system. Do not be afraid of complex and cumbersome, because it is your success, the only path away from losses, no other way. Discipline and mentality must be based on scientific and effective system on and, of course, such a system, he can be based on technical analysis, it can be based on fundamental analysis, or others such as the Book of Changes prediction technology. I still think that feeling is not permanent and reliable, the only objective of the system in order to ensure that you have an objective frame of mind.
I know one of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures to do the professional hands, he survived in the index market has been nearly a decade. He mentioned that, when the Hang Seng Index with him to do, and some are diverted, and some went bankrupt, his knowledge with him into this market, and still survive in the market, he is the only one. Time, powerful forces beyond our imagination to see right in 2012, earnings in 2012 is not surprising. Only after experiencing a long period of washing, tempered, and eliminated, we can see that you really can be speculative. And his own design based on a mathematical model created on a computer trading system, until today, he was still improving and amendments. From his body, I saw a "professional trader" who are "professional" of the host. Compared with him, I am just a basketball fan, and he is already the NBA professional athlete in the gallop. I came back to do in the car when it is thought that the time integral and derivative action, in my body, had just appeared.
In fact, for every a professional trader, the heart will understand the importance of trading systems. I recently had an idea, and give their time spent more than five years of experience to establish their own trading system, sorting into text, look forward to the end to all of us the inspiration to build its own system.
The establishment of a genuine test of the maturity of the market are available through the consistency of the system, I think, certainly after two stages.
1. Stacking
I say the so-called accumulation, probably equivalent to the "profound knowledge" and "thick accumulation" process bar. Accumulation at this stage, large reserves of various knowledge, skills, methods, stage, to emphasize that the maximum extent possible, extensive possession, eclectic, and even to promote the "Huluntunzao", "superficial understanding", "Shennong Bianchang hundred herbs" miscellaneous home spirit, you can collect all the material accumulated in your brain for later use.
Accumulation come from? First, of course, books. You must have swept through the financial bookstore mettle of all sizes without the need for targeted too, but there must be widespread, Western simultaneously, reading all kinds of financial and economic books. The best qualified veteran to open a list of books requested, so read up and more targeted, more efficient manner. This is probably to be similar to the ancients described as "familiar with the Tang Dynasty 300" bar. My experience is that of Western classical technical analysis Cong began to start with, first opened a book of about 20 single, a high level of English the best original direct reading, with the most simple serial approach will eliminate one books . The whole process is completely without any opportunistic, a lengthy process that is boring, but it can not be replaced, can not cross. And, for good books to read over and over again, until overripe on the chest up.
The process of accumulation of greater use of intelligence, is a small amount of memory and reasoning. Your first and foremost, bear in mind the book of methods and doctrine does not require you to have too much skepticism and subjective dynamic. Because these two are to be certain you have only involved on the basis of the accumulation. If you can any one outside the standard IQ test, easy to get top two levels of rating, I think, at this stage for you, you may only need 2-3 years, occasionally you have leisure to read more philosophy, methodology similar to the books, play a substantial corroboration, the significance of linking with each other.
In the reading stage, nor belittle me, I think that reading should be minimized in the domestic books, but to do everything possible (eg, web site ordered to go abroad, etc.) to the tireless Cong reading Western classics, especially the technical analysis. In fact, the veteran's study of books in for the novice is the greatest wealth, and can be less let you walk a lot of detours. I myself was almost swept all over the country with almost all of the Zhuang, speculative books only after going round and round a big bend, pointing at a friend's, began to read the classic Western technical analysis, but also read a few of the original small amount of the "Bible "" Confucian "books.
In addition to the accumulation of material from the outside of books, of course, network. You should have swept the majority of the most famous forum for domestic and international determination to modesty, to accommodate all the jars of mind to read the articles and veteran experience. Personal experience is sometimes more direct than the books with more profound. I personally, in other forums to get to know some of the players, for my helpful can be said to be extremely far-reaching.
In addition to these two, I think, you should put all (remember, all) of their time to read the tape, read the disk, double disk! ! !
To read the tape, in fact, just the beginning for it, nothing more than a "layman curious" and fills but this lively, in any case, you bite the bullet, they have to imagine what will happen.
Conditional to see all you can see historical data on market conditions: foreign exchange, commodities, interest rates, futures, stocks and so on. Especially the index, observing, analyzing, forecasting the various market indices cash and futures trend, at least account for all your time to read the tape about 70%. Even in the stock market, my philosophy is, the index finally everything, always looking at the index's tune, absolutely not do a similar rating on the so-called "tape set aside to do individual stocks," the stupid. I do not think he can always catch outperform or mycophenolate Fortunately, independent of the market trend in stocks.
In addition, the course looks at the plate, but also a very good summary, use your knowledge to read a forum and opportunity.
I have read the tape, stare disk in the process of going through such phases:
First, watch the fun stage of
Every day, staring at the first board or table view, eyes only see up, down the curve, and my heart has no feeling.
Second, the initial stage of
Bought a book, know that compared with other technical indicators such as, knowing a comprehensive sort, knowing the-minute rankings, know that capital flows, know the hot plate and syndicated hot spots to see a little time to have a purpose and of screening. Like surfing the Internet, like to know to use search engines to filter out information that they need a.
Third, advanced
Purpose more explicit, with different categories of optional items, plates, from roughly a dozen varieties of the trend can be run to determine the broad market trends, learn the formula for stock selection, create their own indicators, test trading formula (also not to mention trading systems) and other advanced technologies, he began to reject traditional techniques and indicators, thinking into the core of the transaction, was infatuated with the preparation of formula and the so-called "trading system" and use their indicators designed to measure indices and stocks.
4, systematic
Almost all historical data available on the market for a long stare, double disc, especially the United States refers to Yue, economic, and HSI. (This is only my three favorite varieties), however, stare outside the disk, the price was high, all is not commensurate with my age, illness followed, Hehe. I would insist on a long cross-market studies, and finally build their own trading systems. Completely reject all write index, the formula (except I need to use the system's) stuff (now it seems, those who rely on a high, open, low, income, the amount derived by computing the "secret formula or system" are more ridiculous things without comment a mention), return to the most simple and primitive of several technologies (say it, I dare say that these technologies just entering the market may have heard). To read the tape's purpose is to validate the system, improve the system.
5, integration phase
You finally found an effective trading system under the guidance, you can quickly and become familiar with the unfamiliar market experts in the market, it is proved that sentence, "stock price movements that contains all the information." Can you imagine, I really do not understand is almost entirely concerned with natural rubber, soybeans, copper and other fundamental aspects of the premise of supply and demand analysis, it is not perfect in the domestic commodity markets, there are no obstacles on the same profits. I first entered the market at that time, not afraid of you a joke, I do not even know that China is the world's largest plastic power, and the largest rubber producing countries are Thailand, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries. I only went for a week after the simulated trading on margin started with their own trading. I do not know the basic analysis, I also despise those who are not professional analysts pseudo-basic. I only know that an effective system and psychological control, you can guarantee me a profit in any market, it's that simple.
I mentioned above, the fourth stage is very critical. Is that you can finally have the key to suit their trading systems.
This stage, he may just be more time-consuming and arduous, but the time being do not see any effect of the simple tasks. Sometimes, if you suspect that their are doing is senseless, meaningless efforts. But I must say that this stage is insurmountable, and you only stare stare drive to "eliminate right people for the Iraqi haggard belt she does not regret getting wide-end" with it, you be possible to enter to "turn around and suddenly, that person is Bend at the lights, "realm. Do not consider other people's doubt or sneer at, to strengthen their own faith. Now that you have chosen career speculation, then they threw at this stage is your choice, no other way. You have to try to curve in the use of an integrated all your transactions to know technical knowledge, to explain and predict not already occurred.
I can not guarantee everyone out of the stage. I have found that, speculation in this industry, is one of the few of you even pay the effort, hard work and sweat, but may not be successful ascent of several industries. It is absolutely necessary probabilistic, tolerance failure and imperfect industry, destined to ultimate success can only be those that have a hard work, talent and opportunities for a few lucky ones. Therefore, the choice of occupation trader must be very carefully selected to go through, because, sometimes, the return is not a matter of course directly proportional to your pay. Unless you love the speculation from the heart, or even willing to accept the final outcome of nothing, otherwise, I really advise you, please carefully your choice.
I would like to Haight's words, and encourage one another:
First of all, you have to have an effective price forecasting system, is more important is sound financial management and risk control mechanisms. With "fragmented" and "durable" vision treatment transactions, in the speculative market, the probability of long-term possession advantage, rather than the desperate. That is all the financial transactions.
2. Transmutation
If the accumulation stage in front of just a simple, linear accumulation of knowledge, then this stage, you must use your intelligence in such reasoning, synthesis, induction, Lenovo, insight, etc. accumulated on the first phase of the material, do concentration of digestion and absorption, and until they mess knowledge is you chew as a spiritual thing, and infiltration of blood you are thinking.
You have to maximize your skepticism, doubt everything you read, can see things, use your mind to re-interpret, whether this interpretation seems to others, is extremely childish and absurd and even ridiculous. I think this is key to learning, in short, you have taken the pace of your independent thinking, and completely get rid of "parrot" state. Someone else's smart, after all, someone else, you must be thinking, get your own clever. Creation and learning will always be complementary and mutually basis. Learn from others experience and knowledge only a means to learn the contrary, if you lose your creativity, innovation ability, then it deviated from the original intention of learning. Learning, just for you to create the follow-up to provide material and nutrients, but rather the blood into your own process, you need to create to improve.
Learning is linear, while the creation of the non-linear. It is the latter, brought to the world colorful.
In short, mastery, refining, extraction system, trading their own methods.
I have an experience, language is the clue to help you organize, sort out good ideas through. Sublimation The process can not be done overnight, you still have to nationals during this period by some trivial means, for example, insist on writing transaction reads in mind, doing a detailed case analysis. I think it is difficult to use specific words to describe the "evolution" at this stage, I can only say generally, you have to open your thinking muscle activity, stick to one pattern, use your flexible and powerful, full of spiritual nervous system to constantly close to you to explore the nature of things --- the market.
To determine market trends, is essential.
To tell the truth, in order to become a truly professional trader, I almost lost all interest in hobbies, live a lonely, quiet even some boring life. However, the time for which I came to music without having to go to endure. Sometimes, I also doubted that such a life is worth, but also necessary. However, the so-called gains and losses that actually is relative Moreover, in the transaction, I did receive a profit apart from outside of the fun of unspeakable fun.
Trading practice I lost a lot of impulse and passion, had to endure things, and gradually became the enjoyment and indulge them, and even more people to breed out to be narcissistic tendencies. Moment over the weekend that it would be imprisoned and subjected to various control feelings, when released to test the waters. I gradually adapted to tolerate or even two days do not look professional books or charts, while allowing himself to find a place, climb mountain climbing, or listen to music, even if the thinking, allowing him away from the trading and markets. I know if I want to trade the fun as my life and career, I have to train their own feelings, you can at any time in the market and life in the fast-switching roles. After all, a professional trader, he first was with a rich inner world and the conservation people.
Almost all my friends around me, say my life is extremely boring and lacking in color, less so many pleasures of life. Of course, there are very few friends, had a better ranking than those I have Jane out of life. Computer Quotes of the curve, almost became the trajectory of their lives. I always want to compromise, but I know that a compromise to my current experience and wisdom, but also far from enough.
Is the essence of market exchange, in fact, life in not also full of terrible and loss of the transactions? I chose the average person can not tolerate the "boring" life, but I have come to exchange more powerful than others, more self-confidence and a strong ability to think, insight. Moreover, the direct return for the success of the transaction is to obtain a "better life to enjoy the next option"!
So, I want to encourage that we had never met but share the same ideals of young people, in order to obtain the option contract, we work together!
Nicole recently re-read. Nick Leeson's autobiography, feel deeply.
Leeson transaction fails, in my opinion, there are two main reasons:
1. Reverse the market trend for mid-level that they can intervene and beat the market. I would even be able to appreciate the lonely desperate Leeson in SIMEX in a desperate gambler mentality. He tried to unwinding their long positions, it often does not find himself carefully accumulated a 500 bull. Finally, the entire market is only one person that he bought, looking at many, but all around him became his agent, counterparty. When he has accumulated in the February 1995 Yue 6 million copies by the long (10 billion dollars off the contract), he has completely lost traders to be calm and objective, he was no longer able to observe the market, but often I thought I could manipulate the market . In fact, he can often make the market does rebound a 100-200 point and, once lost his buying, the market began to unravel in a Leiruo of weakness. Dow very rightly pointed out very early, long-term trend (PRIMARYTREND) can not be manipulated. The Nick Leeson, the most obvious violation of common-sense knowledge. And he, at the time, was considered a small number of the world's understanding of options and futures markets and principles of transportation do people.
2. Transaction timing errors. In fact, the Yue by the index, when Leeson do more, really, at the end of a certain level of decline. However, the market in many cases, have proved that short (or long) time in the final resistance is also very fierce. Sophisticated traders are always waiting for the party the power to do, when depleted, harvest Fisherman's benefits, a final blow to the recalcitrant. In the side forces still very far away to falter, to rashly engaged is not wise. We must try to avoid the market last counterattack, and strive to make themselves not to be nipped in the pre-dawn darkness. Leeson's bull costs about 18,000 located in the vicinity. In fact, he was in Singapore by the end of February 1995 the police arrested, but reads through the index by the end of June 1995 early in July when the probe to a low of around 14,000, and in the following year began a period of strong single - side rebound, the maximum rebound to 22750 position. Of course, the poor Sen has served time in prison, while his bank in Bahrain, but also can not wait until a bright sunny this moment of.
In short, a clear decline in the market (down near the finishing phase), against the market trend as an attempt to prevent the development of the market decline, development, completed and under such increases exceed the ability of the gamblers lose red-eye in general there is no route of retreat (no stop-loss and the corresponding protection measures. In fact, Leeson JGB varieties in the hedge, the same look at anti-) and dead code, Leeson and Barings Bank is the ultimate sacrifice in the revolutionary war on the eve of victory in the ultimate cause.
In fact, to solve your problem the most fundamental way is to establish their own trading systems. I suggest you read the waves of the trilogy, focusing on read "system transaction method." However, I personally view this book, not to the industry, like others, to give it high marks. In fact, he did not provide a specific point system rules or design ideas on things, he is given more of a philosophical thinking, and how to test and maintenance of a set of trading systems. Although the book is given to establish the general framework of the trading system of steps, but you have to try to find some specific clues, it is absolutely futile, because, after all, is the real commercial secrets. There is no free lunch na.
However, I feel that this book, in your own trading system components are indeed thinking can provide the macro aspects of guidance.
In fact, Steve. Nissen's "Yue The Candlestick Charting Techniques" is essential to my desk, but also one of my favorite books read. And, in my trading system, Candlestick Charting Techniques is the possession of a considerable weight, and I regard him as an important validation of one of the signals. I think that investment in this ancient oriental art, if you can and Western technical analysis tools are each other's authentication, will play a bigger role. In fact, the author of the book I also emphasized in context. After all, all kinds of technology, has his best at the appropriate occasion and the success rate of each other verification, learn from each other, is the key to the proper use of technical analysis.
I bear great risk of leveraged positions in any case, the funds will not exceed 10%. Moreover, the 10% of the risk position in which I will refine into three categories, namely high-risk profile, and then divided into low, middle and high third gear, in order to better rationalize the planning, distribution and control of the risk position in the degree of risk. However, and most of the practice of foreign hedge fund managers do not like is that I never hedge risk, do not do arbitrage. In the real market opportunities, I leave the scheme in the design of a good basis, I operate many types of derivative products, all in the same direction! For example, I would even designed to use futures to protect me CALL. Oh, I think it would be difficult to understand their foreign counterparts and to agree with my strange way. In fact, to put it bluntly, the real core, is that you have NB trading system that can break down and understand the current market trends, this is the focus here. As for those who use options, futures arbitrage strategy to design a variety of combinations, in my opinion, if you have an effective trading system, which means that everything is not worth mentioning. I want to do is not to lock the risks, but in the same direction, and then Zoom Zoom Zoom!
Words sum up his own trading system in the process of establishing some experience, experience, and explain the course and a few inevitable stage of Qi can look slightly like-minded inspiration and resonance. As for the specific technical details and implementation process, I think that is a professional speculators, must go through the end only by the insistence of your own time, accumulate, summarize, sum plus a little bit of luck, will it be possible achieve our goals. If you choose speculation for their own career, do not get do not need fantasy to ready-made results. In other words, there is no hard work and sweat, even if the system has been excellent, it is impossible to play his true skill, because the system proper use of the premise is the need for users in all aspects of tradition and accomplishment of the accumulation. Therefore, I can only say sorry to your request.
In fact, forecasting system is only a small part of the trading system. Moreover, the size of the earnings and forecasts are not always proportional to the right or wrong. I sometimes do not make enough of the right to see committed errors, homeopathy is the key. I have a friend, he was almost never predictable, but follow the trend, always in the right deal, and I won a few years, the average interest rate is currently not as good as him, which proved that there is no magic forecasts, as can be the big winner .
