Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-07-07
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: As the steady stream of funds into the market to promote the two cities continue to move up. Hu Zhi, the market perception of the key psychological level of 3500 points are easy to break. Shen Chengzhi, the nine so far has come out with a strong pattern of Yang Wan-point mark just around the corner. Looking ahead, the long-short game between the forces will be more complex.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) To promote the market of rising several major factors: the continuous flow of the market due to funding and promoting the two cities continue to move up. Hu Zhi, the market perception of the key psychological level of 3500 points are easy to break. Shen Chengzhi regard, as is now out of nine with a strong pattern of Yang Wan-point mark just around the corner.
The two cities in the early three-fold increase of cases, is still able to maintain such a strong, there is no reason we can not say. OK there is a saying that money is the direct driving force propelling the stock, as long as the continuous influx of outside capital, the stock will be able to continue to hit a new high. It can be said that the current market conditions is the case, the data shows that the new Development Fund for the purchase remains a hot situation, the first three months of this year alone, a new fund for the market supply additional funds more than 150 billion yuan. In addition, savings diversion of funds, QFII, the proportion of social security funds and other stock market has continued to increase, and even insurance funds have changed investment rules, allowing investors to double jump in stocks.
In other words, the influx of funds continue to push up stock prices, while the rising price trend has made the market to improve proactive or passive manner expected. As a broker pointed out, is currently impossible to predict when the reach the peak, due to a high degree of excess liquidity to promote the blue-chip index rose further to accelerate upward, the stock market you want to adjust bad if it tried.
In addition, the large blue-chip or not the characteristics of the elimination of the long worries. China CITIC Bank in accordance with the initial offer price range: from 4.66 to 6.1 yuan, equivalent to 2007 for 2.8 times book value. Taking into account the first day of gains after the listing, the Unit is expected to reach 3.3 times book value would be about. Bank of China, ICBC is much larger than the size of China's seventh of the CITIC Bank, therefore, Bank of China, ICBC premium slightly higher than CITIC Bank should be reasonable. In other words, the increase was small, valuation is not high in large blue-chip has been locked in a sense of space down the big city, and has played a stabilizing role Dinghaishenzhen.
2) increase the process of mines that may exist in the policy: from the disk of view, the market appears twice in the rush after the 3400 sharp intraday adjustments, and in 3500 near the repeated shocks, but because of buying rather positive, each of the adjustments are there are a lot of money bargain-hunting in order to maintain a strong pattern of a large city.
Generally speaking, the market trend, once established, a short time would be difficult to reverse, in particular the trend. Clearly, the current market short squeeze momentum has been established, although the market there are still few people who watch and caution about the psychological, but to do more of the forces have occupied the market mainstream. Therefore, if there is no policy intervention, the bull market would be difficult to bow their heads.
So, what policies might be kind of mine it should be said that the general interest rate, or raise the reserve ratio has been very difficult to play a regulatory role in this column that the solution-maker who choose the introduction of stock index futures, believe that we can control the market madness; however, management in the short term are not likely shot does not conform to introduce the concept of sound.
To sum up, in addition to policy interventions, the market can be difficult in the short term a strong pattern, but we are also difficult to predict what management would put the policy, select any particular time, so investors can take ownership to wait strategy.
B) the main financial Game:
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of defensive configuration varieties, but the overall position has declined relatively early stage. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken to look look, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger, even in the heavyweight competition, the same is not deep wading.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: is expected to be repeated tomorrow shock slightly.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: It is recommended attention to the relatively low price-earnings ratio of defense plate.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions.
