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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Moving average is the essence of the theory of the cost of market trends, while the stock market cost of the Change has always been around, so the cost of the average representative of the actual copy in the importance of doing.
Under normal circumstances, shares are along the direction of fluctuations in average, while the average cycle length is a very crucial factor in the average short period of high sensitivity, but the relatively low accuracy, while the low sensitivity and long-term moving averages, However, the relatively high stability and accuracy, for example, 3-day moving average sensitivity to 5-day moving average, 240-day moving average than the 120-day moving average of the cycle is long, but the 240 days represented by the trend line of the direction of more accurate the longer the average period more important.
Average departure from the phenomenon of copying to do in practice is often able to experience it for short-term opportunity to be helpful to grasp the so-called average departure refers to two situations:
1, when the stock bottomed out after the fall, from the bottom of the rose, this time the direction of long-term moving averages are generally downward, when the stock price after the break through a moving average, the direction of the stock with the breakthrough in the direction of the moving average "cross - "and On the contrary, this is the average departure.
2, another is that when stock prices peaked up, the rapid decline in the process, at this time the direction of long-term moving average is still up, when the stock price after the rapid breakdown a long-term moving average, this time the direction of stock prices Under the breakdown of the moving average was indeed an upward direction, and the average price being the direction of the breakdown was also "cross" and the opposite, which is average departure from the phenomenon.
Average departure from the phenomenon generally occurs in boom or a slump, he was very helpful in judging both top and bottom, stock prices have driven forces on the average, while average stock price is also attractive force, the share price and the average departure from the direction of cross - This is a not a normal market condition, are short-term behavior, because of the attractiveness of average, would lead to this phenomenon be amended. At the same time due to a large extent, represents the average direction of the trend, while the formation of a trend the result of various factors, so the trend deviation of the stock will be revised to rebound, or callbacks, this method for judging the short-term bottom and top of the very effective.
For example, in the current round of Quotes, the broader market from April 9 after the index stocks, driven by rapid pull-up, and quickly broke through the line of years. Such movements are generally big bang, this time, although the broader market was up a strong effort, but was a breakthrough year index of the direction of the line is still down, the annual index of the line direction and the opposite direction, this time took place on average for the direction of cross-departure, this time there once the broader market high shock, and below the short-term 10-day moving average, then suggesting the broad market short-term peak. Index needs to break through the moving average of its callback, which is an objective law of the market itself. In the previous four month of broader market peaked around where I was in a post and everyone said, the post title is "concerned about the Quotes lifeline" inside out the 10-day moving average is the lifeblood of Quotes. Its theoretical basis is the average cross-departure.
For another example, 97 May - 7 months, due to broader market twists and turns, it had been several instances of cross-departure from the average and produce a rebound, 97-year share price plummeted in mid-May to quickly puncture on the 30th line, but at this time on the 30th line is still up, while the index of average breakdown down, this time is the average cross-departure, and rebound. 97 years in mid-June the broader market for 60 days breakdown lane, the 60-day line is still up, index and cross-deviated from the average recurrence and rebound. 97 years early in July, when the broader market breakdown when the antenna 120, but also cross-index and average departure from there, but later rebounded.
Departure from the intersection with the average price is a very common phenomenon, this approach is technically a reference indicator is not absolute, but it as a reference indicator, or great application value. We have deviated from the use of averages should be attention to a few questions:
1, the stock of the K line and the average cross-cutting must occur, and in the opposite direction, if the stock price did not happen with the average cross, even if the time between the two in the opposite direction, does not belong to deviate from average.
2, after departure from the average to determine the short-term bottom and top, it should pay attention: stock must be present turbulent circumstances and reliable. If the average departure took place after there has been no dramatic price shocks, but there a strong resistance to consolidation, or drop the case, indicating that the market does not care about average departure from the original status will continue to rise or fall. For example, 000002, China Vanke early March of this year to break through 120-day MA, shares with the 120-day moving average crossing departure took place, but this time his stock at a high level into Kongpan state, the small yin-yang way to a small upward shocks, stock prices deviate from the average circumstances, is not dramatic shocks, therefore, deviated from the average at this time is no longer applicable, because the share price after entering Kongpan "super state", this time the phenomenon occurred in the state belong to another MA ----- "SMA to reverse." On the "moving average reverse" problem, and later discussion. For another example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks in 2001, when the big top 7-8 Powei month later, at that time appeared a short time the "average departure from the" phenomenon, but it later emerged that the broader market in the moving average to drop below the average departure from the resistance to repair , at this time that market access "very weak state", when the case, we can not depart from the use of MA technology, at this time also belong to the state average, "average reverse" in a situation.
3, average departure from the technique is only applicable to the general state of the market, when markets enter "extremely" or "very weak" state, should use "moving averages to reverse the" theory to determine the trend. Market conditions at this time there are two cases:
A, strong market. This was a massive breakthrough in continuous release deviated from the MA and MA occurred, breaking the stock price at a high level after finishing a strong refusal to callback to determine the key factors of this phenomenon is the "continuous" release massive volume of "continuous" is very important .
B, a very weak market. Yindiepowei at this time is a continuous decline occurred after the immeasurable resistance, stock inability to rebound, even if the starting price being stable, can not approach rebound, as stock averages in the hillside wait passively for the next pressure, are averages of passive restoration , once the pressure of the top of the moving average, stock prices will fall Powei.
