Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-09-22
As we all know, the ship sailing in the water, there are two states: one moves and the boats sailing downstream.
When one moves to overcome the impact of water flow, this time a very tough boat to go, also need the engine to provide sufficient momentum to overcome the resistance to flow, in such circumstances, the ship is generally very difficult to fast-moving. But slightly less than the engine power, then, the ship will be of water will to downstream. By contrast, when the downstream when the boats sailing on the boat in the water under the impact of traveling will be very easy.
In actual combat, the stock price is equivalent to ships, while the average for the equivalent of water and a long-term average stock price direction and the same direction, the market will appear two kinds of situation in which the average arrangement of long and short arrangement. Whether up or down when the bull when the arrangement of short order, belong to the boats sailing downstream, because at this time the direction of price movement in the same direction with the moving average, usually meaning the tendency of the so-called lies. As the boats sailing at this time is so smooth, so stock up when the bull arranged very hot, short-arranged time, they fell is very fierce. This is because the boat down the river when the exercise of ease.
When the average stock price direction and the opposite direction, then are sailing against the current. For example: when the share price rose back to the normal block, as well as the way the share price fell by a rebound appeared to resist belong to sail against the current. When the stock is in an upward trend, because of the direction of average upward, held out in the following stock prices go up at this time if there is price correction, then the downward direction and upward moving average price in the opposite direction. At this point, when the callback is in place in the average price of natural re-up the promotion. By the same token, when the stock is in decline, if the rebound, then, once the stock rebounded after experiencing downward pressure moving average, it will surely meet with resistance, re-dropped.
MA of this principle is very simple, but can really understand it is not easy, but can be handy to use in actual combat it more difficult, and this requires us to have a deep technical analysis of the understanding and control of both the nature of technical analysis of Cai Xing.
In technical analysis, my favorite is the moving average, but I average as the main analytical tools.
Many people think that MA is a very simple thing, is not worth learning. But I have to tell you: "Your such a view is wrong! You did not understand the nature of technical analysis." In technical analysis, the more simple things are often more reliable, because the classical methods of analysis have existed for a long time, and in actual combat for many years been a wide range of authentication, if this method is useless, then it will not spread so far . If you use the wrong words, it can only show you the depth of the use and understanding of problems, the reason for error is caused because you did not really understand it, but did not really grasp it.
In reality, many people like to use some odd years old method of technical analysis, they even think that these things are the real martial arts Cheats. However, I must tell you, martial arts legend in the stories are fairy tales, in fact, is fictitious. If we allow the East is Red and the legendary boxing champion Mike Tyson contest, then I can certainly tell you that Tyson would blow the East is Red beat up somebody. Because the East is Red is a fiction, but Tyson is realistic.
Moving average of this "flow theory" in the meaning of actual combat is very large. In the past I have mentioned, averages often the direction of the problem, and to look at the direction of long-term moving average is very important because it is. We have to do the copy should choose long-term moving average and the stock price in the same direction, and were up a "long arrangement," the stock, because at this time of price rises downstream boats sailing, I have copied the central line in the current round of Shigekura stock is doing Shenyang Machine Tool (000.41 thousand quotes, information, advice, more), last year when the Shenyang Machine Tool (000.41 thousand quotes, information, advice, and more) in the 7 yuan for some time, I have the Internet to everyone's analysis, was in 158 Hairong forum I have talked about this many times and the User unit, I was clear to netizens, the unit should be held to the midline of the annual report in March 2004 before and after, in the middle do not have to care about short-term Change. Now, we come back to look at the Shenyang Machine Tool (000.41 thousand quotes, information, advice, more) of the shares and the relation between the long-term moving averages to know the truth, and because such shares are boats sailing downstream, stock prices and long-term MA are long array. Conclusion: We should try to choose the actual stock-picking stock boats sailing downstream as far as possible not vote for sailing against the current stock. I have in the past to the User introduced many of the stocks fall into this category, such as: Yangzi Petrochemical (000,866 market, information, advice, more), the sea is Pharmaceutical (600,267 market, information, advice, more ), BOCO (600,289 market, information, advice, more), copper is copper (000.63 thousand market, information, advice, more) and so on.
A few days ago there was discussion of Financial Street of the User and I have a stock Yun Technology (600,181 market, information, advice, more). I had told him that the reason why the trend of the stock is not ideal because of his bad state average, so that the stock even if the short-term ascribed to the words, but also very limited space. We take a look at Yun Technology (600,181 market, information, advice, and more) in the direction of long-term average and state is very clear, long-term average downward direction, in such circumstances, the stock price rise in order, then it is equivalent to sail against the current, of course, is very tough.
In actual combat, or drop the vast majority of the stock movement has not been satisfactory. But there are exceptions. For example: in early 2002 Shenshen Fang (000029 market, information, advice, more) in early 2003 of the Shanghai Science and Technology (600,608 market, information, advice, more), and round in Shanghai Maling (600,073 market, information, consultation and more). These stocks have all the medium and long term averages, "under pressure" has happened short squeeze-style boom, but it does not mean average analysis of the error, which is a moving average MA ----" another phenomenon to reverse. " Such cases are a small probability events, are not universal. After all, not even one percent probability of stocks that are lower than in the more than 1,000 stocks every year there are a few just normal, this is not a universal phenomenon. We now come back to look at these in the "sailing against the current" situation, there short squeeze stocks soaring volume status is very clear. These shares have higher turnover when a common -----" the amount of continuous burst. " If we compared the average water price comparing to the ship, then the volume is the ship's engine output power. Boat sailing against the current circumstances if you want to travel very fast, then it must satisfy an important prerequisite, namely: the ship's engine output power should be enough, only the engine power output is large to overcome the resistance of upstream flow , stock prices go up volume to emit a continuous "violent quantity", the only way to produce short squeeze-style boom. Such a high stock rushed after the heavy volume once the volume shrinkage or stagnation of the shock, then an indication the ship's engine is now insufficient, and at this time will be peaked.
At this point, we can find another perspective: If you are not "against the current," but in the "boats sailing downstream" conditions, if the ship's engine power output strong enough, then this is it not better Mody?
So, I have always, and the forum said: "average with the stock price in the same direction," long arrangement "circumstances, the volume of" continuous active "stock is a very good stocks of concern."
"Sailing against the current" and "downstream boats sailing on" the trend in the share price movement is very
