Category: Money tips Release Date: 2005-12-24
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: In the context of RMB appreciation, we are still faced with the demographic changes in growth, and capital from the relatively limited to a relative excess of even such a process is very relaxed. In this context, the appreciation of the process industries will be more complex and adjustment of industrial structure from labor-intensive industries to capital-and technology-intensive industry, transformation, the proportion of tertiary industry will greatly enhance the ......
In the context of appreciation of the renminbi, is still faced with the demographic changes in growth, and capital from the relatively limited to a relative excess of even such a process is very relaxed. In this context, the appreciation of the process industries will be more complex and adjustment of industrial structure from labor-intensive industries to capital-and technology-intensive industry, transformation, the proportion of tertiary industry will be greatly improved, high-end consumer goods, transportation and other industries will be an unprecedented space for development.
1, the demographic aging
As the population trends in an aging society became increasingly obvious that the total is still growing in the circumstances, the new labor force is in substantial reductions in the population. Can be seen in the coming period of time, this trend will become increasingly apparent, the larger the gap will form a labor shortage.
This means two things: First, as labor gradually shortages, rising labor costs, rising wages will become a long-term trends, the cost of labor-intensive industries will continue to increase; Second, society as a whole due to an aging population increase, basic security, such as community medical and public health demand is growing.
Second, the supply of capital will be more comfortable
The structure of a country's industrial upgrading is often upgraded from labor-intensive to capital-intensive, followed by capital-intensive to technology-intensive industries. In fact, China's current conditions more suitable for upgrade to the capital-intensive industries.
1, the capital off from the relatively well-off into an absolute
China's savings rate and foreign exchange reserves in the world's major economies is top of the list, and has nearly 16 trillion of savings and foreign exchange reserves to one trillion U.S. dollars in China's capital has been well-off by a relatively well-off toward the absolute. Up to 50% of the savings rate and the savings and loan poor has reached 10 trillion (over 98 years ago the total money supply in any year), capital surplus position is clear enough.
2, excess liquidity will change the industry structure
Excess liquidity, will not only impact on real estate, financial markets, and other fields will promote capital-intensive, technology-intensive industries. Such as the upgrading of our manufacturing industries to comply with this principle will be clear from the past, mainly labor-intensive products to low-grade to high-end products mainly to adjust.
3, the third industry development
In the capital surplus and industrial upgrading in the process of the tertiary industry will increase its proportion in the national economy. First of all, the tertiary industry in China's share of the entire national economy in the development of a low proportion of tertiary industry in China is 40%, 70% in developed countries is not only far lower than the proportion is also lower than the proportion of developing countries in general 50% ; Second, capital surplus and industrial upgrading, promote domestic demand, the process is conducive to promoting the development of tertiary industry. Such as education, public services and other industries under the guidance of the demand in the market to absorb a large number of social funds, to gain rapid development. Finally, the service industry can effectively stimulate economic growth, industrial structure adjustment process to fill the other caused the slow development of related industries slowing trend in economic growth.
Third, the currency appreciation to force the process of industrial upgrading
Finally, the part that the pace of currency appreciation will force the process of industrial upgrading, which is cause for concern.
If the yuan to appreciate faster, then the labor-intensive industries industries in labor costs and export the dual pressures of increased costs, will accelerate the decline. In the other hand, in order to maintain sustained economic development and the progress of the consumer to upgrade industry and high value-added export industries in the various types of resource flows to the next larger room for growth.
Fourth, industry analysis
This column believes that structural changes in the population, capital, the absolute excess of the appreciation of the currency against the backdrop of China's current model of economic growth is bound to bring about a transformation of the industrial structure adjustment and upgrade, that is, labor-intensive industries to capital-and technology-intensive industries adjustment.
In this process, the proportion of tertiary industry will gradually be increased. From the industry, high-end consumer goods, machinery and equipment, transportation, tourism and other industries more room for growth.
