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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Li Zheng-chao Liu Tai Long Jun Sun Qiang Chengdu Daily
Spike investors at a loss
Market trend this week, frightening, rose Monday to 42 points, reaching a record high, investors have not had time pleased with broader market Tuesday under heavy volume hit 267 points, the biggest decline in nearly 10 years, give vent to market risk, Wednesday to Friday up one or two to recover 60 points, closed the week 167 points out of a large Yin Xian. Tuesday and Thursday at the drop process, the disk selling rush out of Tuesday unilateral Shanghai stock market turnover reached 131.6 billion yuan history, the amount of days. Such a massive shock, so that many investors panic, confusion, how it will run into next week's broad market focus. Edition interviewed brokers, funds and other institutions and professional analysts, listen to them next week how to analyze the market trend --
Agencies to see afternoon
Within a narrow range next week to tape will become the main keynote
Year of the Pig in the first week the face of soaring broader market plunge in the trend, most analysts said the market outlook, cautious that the shock adjustment will become the tape next week's primary operating mode. While a lot of opportunities for individual stocks, but the risk of participation has gradually increased.
Mainly within a narrow range
Agreed rate: 60%
"Next week tape has the potential to run the 2800 point axis, in the up and down dozens of room to shock, rose drop is not easy to follow." Hangzhou New Hope, said: "Two factors will determine the balance: First, the policy hidden surface effects, which is mainly reflected in the forthcoming two sessions this factor, it makes the need for stability in the market into a broader market fall sharply the space has been blocked; Second, the market side factors, mainly short-term adjustment did not significantly lower market valuation levels, the overall valuation level is still high, the market demand as large, therefore the internal adjustment indices rose. a comprehensive look at the broader market will maintain balance. "
Hong Kong and Macao News said: "The index had an initial climb to stabilize and that the stock market remained volatile Friday adjust the pattern, but the amplitudes have been narrowed, indicating that investor confidence has stabilized. The two sessions will consider the draft law on corporate income tax, once the two tax bills considered and adopted the merger generally according to the current income tax rate of 33% in terms of the core of blue-chip is no doubt a major positive. "Southwest Securities, Guangzhou, Hironobu, also agree that watching the current market sentiment increased, the index volatility, would narrow the point of view.
Will continue to be down
Agreed rate: 20%
"This week tape put a huge amount of weeks in the Yin has formed a dark cloud cover trend, while two to Thursday this week, two yin yang clip a day K-line also formed the prototype combination of short guns, short-term inertia to adjust the pattern has been the establishment. "Galaxy Securities that.
On Friday some heavyweight arrested, Department of Finance is analyzed, "Friday indexes rebound, heavyweight started Qi Wen. But since 2006 has earned a lot, even if it does not make money in the spring of 2007 is no big deal, so At present the main measures taken in response is the main part of the breakthrough in the first, and then showed their withdrawal, the last mass escape. "
United Securities view is more cautious: "The current high valuation is the fundamental factor in the 2006 bull market, most have been overdrawn in 2007, company performance, and there are many overdrawn mainstream varieties have begun the performance in 2008 is expected to The Shanghai Composite Index fell to below the post-2500 will be gradually stabilized. "
Rebound trend
Agreed rate: 20%
"There is clearly indicated to re-up!" Guangzhou Bandung that the "big city, after the second bottom, there are signs of upward again. Yesterday with the hot new pattern of non-ferrous metal plates, steel plates there are signs of low tide. But the military-industrial section , science and technology section, the rise of the real estate section. from the disk to see the trend, the market has to re-sign up. "
Ningbo Shun said: "From the trend point of view, index appears in the Tuesday after the giant Yinxian around the 20 day MA launched repeated shocks, the market is still no continuity sell into kinetic energy, the mentality of investors began to steady. If next week's did not continue the inertia of the early fall, you may be further opportunities to rebound. "
Action: Note position advantage of the opportunity for
Shenyin suggest that investors may be concerned with these types of stocks: First, the performance exceeded expectations, sending transfer program-than-expected species; the second is to look for a relatively small growth or second and third line stocks, such as electricity, coal, energy and other varieties. The third is a good turning point to the fundamentals of major listed companies, in particular, the asset injection, the overall listing investment proposition. Concrete may be concerned about the Huaneng Power International, Hengyuan Coal, Xishan Coal and Electricity, Hua Yi electrical, Maanshan Iron and Steel shares.
Pairs of short-term investors are concerned, the Joint Security proposes a focus on the opportunities offered by the two organizations to the industry, such as agricultural plates Dunhuang Seed Co., Denghai kinds of industries are being pulled in advance is expected to be repeated later speculation involved when the need to control technology rhythm. However, the specific operation, the agencies have recommended a good position to control and improve risk awareness.
Fund Manager View
Short notes do not change the pattern of long bull
As a major force in the largest market - fund managers of today to see how the market is it? At present, they played what role does, the market outlook, views on how bearish bullish And what what?
Department of Tianfu aspiring Focus Growth Fund Manager: Yuan Jianjun
"Daochun Han," not affect the "golden years"
The focus of upcoming growth sinks Tianfu Yuan Jianjun aspiring fund managers that can be used "Daochun Han," not affect the "golden years" to sum up but now the market.
The recent market spread, the levy of capital gains tax to investigate into the illegal market funds, the management strictly controls the stock market bubble, institutions significantly lighten up the overall market, such as a huge shock of the rumors is the fuse, have their roots in China's A shares currently exists clear bubble basic judgments. However, according to the latest data estimates, A shares in 2006 and 2007 earnings growth is expected to greatly exceed the end of 2006 when the widely expected value, the current A shares 2007,2008 Dynamic PE of only 24.59 years and 19.92 times, completely in a healthy and reasonable valuation of level. Institutional change to bring about fundamental changes in the texture of us is a very substantially improved the market for more than a basis for the establishment of various rumors did not exist.
In the more sensitive points, spaces and times, reflecting the huge shock more focused on the same body position adjustments caused by short-term impact on the market, to market trends will not cause fundamental change. In the high-than-expected earnings to maintain growth, ample liquidity, RMB appreciation, the system continued to change change the tone of several major cases, the pattern is still a bull market, we are convinced of the "golden years" of the judge, and long-term optimistic and determined.
Adjusted low of 2540 points, the last round of first-line management policy is likely that the bottom line of this round of adjustment is expected to become an important support level of the adjustment is limited. Short-term adjustment will once again welcome the opportunity to buy crush quality varieties. Recently, promising Meidianyouyun its industry chain, is also optimistic about resource-based real estate, 3G, has a unique business model innovation and business investment value.
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Tenji Core Growth Fund Manager: Wu Peng
The main shock is the keynote of this year's
For the week, the characteristics of market operation, the core growth fund managers Tenji Wu Peng acknowledged that because of the accumulated pre-or too large, resulting in a shock, and vibration will be running this year, the main tone Quotes. Short-term market volatility will continue to maintain the pattern.
First, the current market as a whole is too large accumulated gains, in itself a certain valuation bubble, and now the market does not have the attractiveness of like last year; Secondly, the huge profits plate, bringing to sell space, is now quite ample capital in the market, fell down there funds dare brave to take over, leading the market up and down big bang; again, but now the market agencies have diversified, investment style is also very diversified, market volatility is normal.
Wu Peng suggested investors may be concerned about at this stage, coal, electricity, iron and steel, automobile and other undervalued species, to avoid pre-aggregate or large banks, real estate, liquor stocks. In addition, the overall listing or military machinery industry stocks may cause for concern. And Industry for National Defense issued a circular yesterday to encourage the participation of military products for civilian use non-public economy, encouraging military industrial enterprises, the overall market, assets, etc. right into a huge military-industrial complex constitutes a positive, optimistic about their long-term there is an overall listing of the industry or assets into stocks.
Depth analysis
Is no reason for a declining market in the end how the
Year of the Pig of the stock market when everyone is full of hope when the first trading week Year of the Pig yew investors, the risk of a profound education: the market fell from above 3,000 points, one is 200 points down. Zhe Xiake to everyone frightened, and markets everywhere are full of explanations on the broad market decline, but the stock market's future trend for some time, most people think the stock market has already peaked phase, we quickly ran from voting really so.
Puzzled the market fell Weina Ban
Year of the Pig began trading on the broader market suffered setback in the short-lived fad to everyone scared unbearable. Indeed, after this shot up to 3049 points, the broader market on the waterfall drop in one day on the slid nearly 9 percent a decade of epic proportions, naturally we all have to inquire about this or law everywhere reasons. However, the East West inquiries inquiries, do not have a precise statement, is hearsay news, while the market is down hard only. Naturally everyone would not care so much, and the first fruits of victory to save to save the strength to bear loss or less, a throwing leave.
To tell the truth, even if the stocks for many years the old shareholders have not met such a strange drop-off - that the reasons are not, the market crash on the thin-mile fell down. Previously, any day the stock market suffered a decline more than 5% behind the bad news that there are genuine. Which led to sharp falls in the stock market after several major news sources have proven to be false, but the stock market is still indifferent, continued to decline. So this trend, we can only show that the stock market does have a problem.
The depth of water down a number of terrorist
Just this week one, the stock market usher in Year of the Pig grand opening, investors everybody smile. But in the face of the decline was no reason why most people are throwing votes made by air it? The problem was no reason for the decline in the stock market. This is no reason for the decline, making most investors can not predict precisely where the problem occurs? Their risk in the end be?
Since there is no reason, so they took down before the market point of view to analyze the differences between the two sides look at bar. Decline in the stock market before, either to see more or do they just empty, without exception believe that the stock market is still in bull market, that is, by now, this view had not changed. So that the stock market fall at this stage to believe that the stock market rise time and amplitude are in a relatively high point, the stock market the necessary adjustments in order to go higher more stable. As for the adjustment of space and time, is generally believed that 20% to 30%, lasted two to three months. The more who see that the market valuation is still in the range of reasonableness, the market upward momentum is still very adequate.
Sure enough, at this stage the market dropped, the natural person to see an empty upper hand. And to not fall for any reason, they just assume that the reasons given by those who see empty is the current market correction of the underlying reasons, then the market this week, the biggest decline in more than 10%, and is rapidly falling down according to this method, using not last long, the market fell to bits on the.
Adjustment is not history repeats itself
Open the stock market in May 2006 to August trend can be found now that they have striking similarities. They are not only morphologically similar to, but there are inherent similarities reasons. In the last year, May to August, the stock market in 1500 points to 1700 points, an adjustment phase so that a considerable majority of investors as well after missing the end of the stock market up 1,000 points. And now once again faced with the market to adjust, of course, reasons and the market correction in May last year, can not be completely identical, but the essence was very similar - both considered to be the next bull market adjustments. Beware of the previous market, but is a lack of funds, and now is worried that excess liquidity-induced bubble burst.
However, according to the theory of technology to send, no matter what the reason, in May 2006 market adjustment and the decline in the market today, the results have only one - to a large market Huanchou ultimately makes the cost to reach the same height of the market: the previous is carried to the market cost of 1500 points to 1700 points, this is to take cost-carried to the vicinity of 2800 points. Because we all agree that this market is still bullish, then the future will rise even higher, there is a higher point and occurs, then the fall is the best opportunity for Xi Pan is no admission to a seemingly cheap money Admission to the opportunity. Since we all agree that this bull market, funds are those who want to try to cheaper stock prices, but in fact, this idea was difficult to truly realize, because most people does not meet the market recognized point and time, long ago it was the first admission ticket . Hence, the decline in the market space may not reach the current market most people think of the 2300 - 2400 points in the vicinity, perhaps up and down in the 2600 point, that is February 6 this year, the point position - 2600 to come to a halt at about the .
Analysts point of view
Concerned about the opportunity to organize individual stocks stock shocks
Reporter yesterday interviewed several securities analysts that the market adjustment of the pattern has been basically established, but investors can focus on the opportunity to seize the stocks.
Broader market is still expected to hit 3,000 points
Guangzhou Boxin Peng Dexian, general manager of R & D department, said 3000 would become a quarter of the high points of the insurmountable. According to his analysis, said: "From yesterday's rally, the market showed a decline on heavy volume, rising then Suliang situation, it is clear that a weak rebound. Therefore, exercise caution investors to be better, do not blindly chase sell into. "
Securities Finance R & D department Chuan Liu Jie, general manager also believes that through the continuous adjustment, the basic trend of the market plunge will not be re-emerged. "Next week may be erased situation, short-term impact may even be 3,000 points again. However, even this adjustment does not alter the overall market trend. From the current situation, the market has been basically established access to the largest since the current round of Quotes The adjustment cycle of. "
"Vibration cleaning some of the market bubble, once again is unlikely that the deep-down." Fortunately, Sansei SG Securities, after the broad market potential for a more optimistic look, he continued to have analyzed "in a continuous sharp Xi Pan, the market float chips were basically cleansed, which will benefit organizations to re-layout, especially the new funds Jiancang. plunge is not so terrible afternoon will be expected to rise again within the short-term impact of 3000 points, worth the wait. "
Subject matter will become the trend in active shares
While the adjustment of the trend has been established, but analysts are agreed that, in the target unit was unable to continue to lead the broader market up the situation, some subjects will be repeated active stocks.
Fortunately, Sansei suggest that investors continue to focus on the concept of individual stocks listed as a whole, his analysis, said: "This theme will run throughout the year, even if the broader market adjustment, these stocks will remain active again." Yin Fei, Guangzhou Securities, said: "Investors are may wish to look locked plates in agriculture, especially those who benefited from industrial policy support in agriculture stocks will benefit, "two sessions" held in the agricultural section will be frequent dark horse. "
Guangzhou Boxin believes that investors should focus on the recent trend of broader market heavyweights, because only these stocks stabilized, the market will initially stabilized. In operation, the short-term increase in individual stocks may be too large rallies to trim, while relying on and the performance of individual stocks may be bargains or not.
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