Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-05-02
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
In February 3000, former big city, is still below the hovering, when the market quite a huge difference, but the city still stand on the 4,000 points from the bold prediction (Liu Qiqian point) is a step closer. So, the market will go up, as always, do, in May will become Quotes of the inflection point?
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
A) May assume the evolution of large city: in February 3000, former big city, is still below the hovering, when the market quite a huge difference, but the city still stand on the 4,000 points from the bold prediction (Liu Qiqian point) is so close in step. So, the market will go up, as always, do, in May will become Quotes of the inflection point?
We made a rough statistics, since 2001, except in May 2002 occurred after the famous "624" stock market, in May 2001, May 2003, in May 2004 is basically a new round of downward adjustment Quotes of the beginning; in the recent two years, in May 2005 is the share reform launched, A shares in history to reach the end of the end of five years of a bear market; in May 2006 new from the old, is finishing a half-way stage of the bull market; while in 2001 Previously, in May also bears little more than cattle. Of course, entirely with historical trends to determine the current market, there are many irrational factors, after all, is now the market has undergone great changes. However, we can still believe that May will be an important development window of time Quotes.
In addition to the historical trends, the column that the policy factors, and capital factors will be decided in May Quotes of the key points. From the financial perspective, the institutional money is ambitious, but their attitude towards the market outlook is quite cautious, more a passive to do more, which agency should be the Quote of the swing man.
According to the data show that the inflow of capital markets in recent months, of which two-thirds of non-sector funds (mostly retail), so that retail investors will directly affect the situation of capital inflows Quotes. In this regard, the people had to make an estimate: the number of accounts in accordance with the mature markets accounted for 25% of the total population to calculate the Chinese accounts, up to 130 million, while the A-share market is currently a total of about 90 million accounts, there are still about 3000 ~ 40 million of the potential number of households. With daily average of about 150,000 to calculate the progress of the stock market, accounts tide will last until the eve of the Olympic Games in 2008. Taking into account the market value is increasing, and promote the funding needed to increase the index was up factors can be binary this time, that is, in October of this year, before the wave of incremental funding accounts can still support the broad market higher.
From a policy factor, the central bank reported that 2007 quarter, the capital market boom brought about by such factors as the wealth effect will help to strengthen consumer confidence, should be co-ordination of direct financing and indirect financing of the size and structure, to promote the healthy development of capital markets. From which we can easily see, the management of the current market should be more positive elements. In fact, A shares are only localized overheating overheating, large blue-chip blue-chip performance with the second line remains essentially rational.
A unit should be said that at present there is no need for regulation, but does not rule out the management of head start and introduce policy control to prevent the amplification of the bubble. Column that the management may take would be walking and-see attitude, as long as large blue-chip and second-line blue-chip non-crazy speculation, it is estimated will not be forced to suppress the management of the bull market.
2) The main line of the evolution of investment afternoon guess: in a bull market inside, only to seize the lead plates to obtain higher profits. Generally speaking, leading not only in the valuation on the plate has a solid support, but also a huge room for imagination. For example, pre-crazy non-ferrous metal plate, price-earnings ratio is low, non-ferrous metal futures prices continued to rise.
Column that do not change as long as the pattern of the bull market, brokerage concept will be one of the most popular sections. Because the massive turnover brought about by brokerage revenue, continued with the IPO brought additional investment banking revenue, to support the growth in the performance of securities companies several times.
Secondly, market-based assets into the overall theme of the recent mediocre, but I believe the main line will run through the year 2007, in which iron and steel, electricity, coal industry's most worthy of attention.
B) the main financial Game: taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of configuration varieties of higher margin of safety, but the Overall pre-position relative has also declined. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken while walking to see, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger, even in the heavyweight competition, the same is not deep wading.
3) between the medium and small retail game: It is recommended to invest in a better focus on the texture of M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: a small increase is expected next Monday to maintain the high shock pattern.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: I suggest a relatively high margin of safety concerns varieties, such as the concept of the new accounting standards and assets into the plate.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions
