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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
According to wave theory, the arguments, the price volatility from the "bull" to "bear market" and complete the cycle, including an increase of five waves and three down waves. At the same time, the main wave 5 wave can be divided into 21 small wave, adjust the wave can be divided into three waves l3 small waves. In 34 small waves in the main wave 21 can be divided into 89 small waves micro waves, adjust the wave l3 small waves can be divided into 55 micro-wave, this constitutes a micro-wave group from the l44 a great cycle of the complete RV .
Quotes are usually a composition by the five big waves, the wave characteristics are as follows:
The first wave usually appears in the stock market bottomed out areas. It is the beginning of eight wave cycle, due to the rise in this Quotes appear in the bear market decline after the reversal. The buyer power is not strong, coupled with the continued existence of short selling, so the first wave of growth is usually a wave 5 the shortest of the stock market.
is not over yet. When the Quotes fell near the bottom of the (up points from the first wave, began Xishou psychological), when the volume is gradually shrinking. Until the end of the first two waves adjustments.
The third wave of the rally may be the biggest, most explosive, and rip up the first of three waves is the most common phenomenon, it can assist in the first three waves confirmation. At this point the market to restore the confidence of investors, trading volume increased significantly, but also confirmed the first three waves can be used as a reliable basis for another. L, especially in breaking the first wave of a high point, is the best buy signal.
Several waves of the first rule is that the first wave to be longer than the first three waves l waves and 5. 3rd Wave is usually the first wave of 1.618 times the l may also be climbing up 2.618 times the magic number, or other multiples. When the confirmation of the current market on the first three waves, any sale should be for the advantage of the opportunity. Buying, rather than short times of adversity.
The fourth wave is a sharp rise sharply after the adjustment Quotes waves, usually in the more complex patterns emerged, and often tilt the trend of the triangle. The waves often higher than the lowest point in the first wave point l. The end of the following three possibilities:
(1) adjusting the first three waves of 38.2%; (2) taking to the sub-level within the first four waves; (3) If the "flat type" or "zigzag" appearance, the first wave with the first four two waves will be the same length.
Several waves of the second rule is that the end of the first four waves can not be less than the first wave of top-l. No. 4 wave near the end, the power indicator would normally have been serious sell-off situation. When a group of five waves up market after the completion of the characteristics of waves under paragraph 4, the group of five waves of the first four waves, usually constitute the next adjustment of the target market may be bottoming out.
5th wave up waves in the bull market, often the longest wave, and often an "extension of waves." In the stocks of the stock market, the fifth wave rally is typically less than the first three waves. If its high point of no more than the first three waves, there will be pairs of flat top bull market failure, in which the waves in the second and third line stocks are usually the leading force in the market, the increase was often greater than the first-line segment, the market sentiment rather optimistic. Of course, there are also failures, that is, or may not be very large, investors should just leave the appropriate
Adjust the wave consists of two or three big waves constitute a liter, respectively, with A, B, C indicated that the wave characteristics are as follows:
No. A wave: In this wave of investors has not yet reversed the majority of that increase Quotes at this time is only a temporary correction adjustment. In fact, A wave decline, in the first five waves usually have warning signals, such as: volume and price deviation from or a departure from the technical indicators generated. However, at this time the market is still relatively optimistic about the state of mind, A wave occasional sideways or "zigzag" trend.
No. B waves: Usually volume is not, in general, is a long line of escape. However, its pattern of rising, it is easy for investors to mistakenly believe that another band of the rally, resulting in a "bull trap", so many investors stuck in this tragic.
No. C wave: is to adjust the end of the wave, usually a strong decline. With the first three waves of similar characteristics, "decline in large, lasted long, but there is also a comprehensive down the situation. When the A, B, C wave with" zigzag "run-time, A and C waves would tend to the same wave length , C wave will naturally be lower than the low end of A wave waves.
Wave theory, basic principles:
(1). Alternation principle: "that adjust the wave" pattern is to alternate modalities. If the first two waves are "single-type" adjustment waves; then in section 4 is a composite wave will adjust the wave.
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(2). To adjust the pattern of consolidation wave can be used to predict the strength of the market outlook Quotes.
(3). Based on Eliot's "natural law", the first four waves can not be less than the low of the first wave of a high point; the first three waves of volatility is often the longest, but by no means the shortest one of the driving waves, so can the number of waves correctly.
(4). Waves the principle of equal magnitude: In the first wave 3 1,3,5 push waves, where at most one wave will appear to extend the wave, while the other two were slightly promote the waves are equal, will still be the golden ratio 0.618 emergence of such relations.
(5). Tracks trends: Elliott that "the theory of wave movements, should be within two parallel tracks."
Application of wave theory:
When investors know how to run a large cycle of the whole process, can predict the right trend. First of all, investors must be clear trend at present position, and then wave theory can be specified according to the number of a variety of waves to determine the next step to be taken. For example: when investors already know that a certain stock has been increased by the end of five waves, then the current will soon be faced with the advent of the three waves down, so the whole operation must be thinking to bear market rallies to trim the main way .
Classic examples:
Mudanjiang weeks since listing with K chart as an example: an increase in the first wave was May 21, 1999 -9 period of 16 months, its share price rose by 5.03 yuan to 9.28 yuan Fang Cai peaked down, or up to 80%; Article 2 adjust the wave is September 17 -12 on 30, its stock price dropped to 9.18 yuan from 6.55 yuan Fang Cai adjustments in place, the first two wave length of 2.63 million; the stock fell nearly 30% after another in 2000, a month period until February 18 to launch with the explosive rise in the first three waves, its shares rose by 6.48 yuan to 14.14 yuan Fang Cai peaked down, or up to 117%; because the unit's third rise in fast wave You Meng, so The fourth adjustment waves from February 21, 2000 --- February 21, 2001 It had taken a year's time in the 8.9-11.5 yuan within a narrow range sideways to digest profit chips, Xipanzhencang, During the first 4 wave length of 2.59 yuan and the length of the first two waves are similar to direct stock investors to confirm the adjusted support spaces; until February 22, 2001 the unit was once again the old main launch a new round of upside Quotes, from 9.69 yuan started after a steady drive up to 17 Yuan, Fang finished fifth in the successful operation of the rising waves, or as high as 76%. As the unit has successfully operated for the full five up waves, the bull market cycle has been completed, so the remaining time will be the main consideration to the question of how to send goods. Judging from the current main unit is in operation the first A wave down wave point of view, is still one of the investors can wait for the operation of the unit when the first wave B rally rallies to trim.
Wave theory of defects:
(1). Wave theory of what constitutes a full wave, there is no clear definition of the actual movements in the stock market rise or fall, often do not follow three or five liters of this mechanical model of the emergence of competing study how the number of waves entirely by individual determined by the subjective. Each wave theorists, including Eliot himself, often would be such a problems: that is, a wave has been completed and started another wave then? Judgments of different waves to determine the trend of the market outlook will be a big difference, whereby the risk of operation is quite big.
(2). Wave theory, there are waves and waves can be infinitely extended up, Shenglang can include all rally, and even a giant wave, a hundred years can be, but fell waves as well. And, regardless of Shenglang or tumbles in a variety of mutations are recurrent patterns, which makes the division of waves rather complex and difficult to grasp, and this has made it difficult to carry out the practical application of wave theory, or to determine the probability of error increases.
(3). Wave theory is often used for the general trend of judging, but the election can not be applied to individual stocks is, therefore have limitations.
(4). Wave theory of magic number as the basis of its legitimacy has not been demonstrated, and thus eyes of the beholder, the wise see wisdom, it is difficult to find convincing scientific basis.
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