Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-07-27
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: For several days the signs of weakness of the large blue-chip, once again become a major force in the market decline, the market was once an atmosphere of panic, pre-sell into strength varieties have joined the ranks. Can be seen, the recent turn in the market is large, then changed the main why a short pre-optimistic attitude and backhand it. . .
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) management moves hit the main weak points: In the new fund issue on the SFC has not made a lot of opinions, but in the industry who indicated that the approval of China Securities Regulatory Commission has postponed the release of a few mutual funds, apparently the management of this move was a reaction to recent market madness come. From the end of last year to early this year, the two cities in the new funding under the impetus of increased noticeably accelerated pace, showing a certain degree of rationality, although the management had suggested that investors need to remain rational, and even modified index calculation rules, but achieved little effect.
As the saying goes, the luminous meteor that moment is beautiful, but it is quite short-lived. The bull market of course, with the majority of investors, the management is willing to see a profit, but the management is more willing to see the long-term stable and healthy development of the market, rather than the pleasure you want to short-term window-dressing. Therefore, controlling the market rhythm becomes more important. This column has mentioned before, awash with liquidity is the main force of the courage to do more powerful weapon, in fact, it is the soft underbelly of the main lies; management to stop the issue of new funds, to a certain extent, the main deterrent to do more of vigor. In addition, the central bank take the initiative to tighten the liquidity of the hard-line stance, but also posed a certain threat to the main.
It is worth noting that the stock index futures will likely launch in March, the value of discovery will realize the value of the stock market return. Slight bubble in the current market circumstances, the stock index futures is very likely to be down incentives. The introduction of stock index futures from overseas experience, most of them in the market will appear before the launch of 10% to 30% decline.
From the control flow of funds into the market, to the upcoming launch of stock index futures, constitute a market adjustment pressures. However, investors do not have to be too pessimistic, medium and long term, management did not stifle the market, but is beneficial to the market's long-term bullish. At the same time, the value of yuan in the coming period of rapid appreciation of the situation has not changed, the profitability of listed companies is still good, after the implementation of new accounting standards is expected to greatly enhance performance.
2) The main battle will be re-formulated plan: Although the initial part of the funds have fled, but the main player involved in large blue-chip level is still very deep, and I believe will not be the main line of exit. First, the introduction of stock index futures, with the rapid growth of the size and capital to make large blue-chip has become a scarce strategic resource. Secondly, a longer period of time in the future, industrial upgrading and restructuring of central enterprises is still an important market, the main line, while the large blue-chip is one of the biggest beneficiaries. Such as the recent Baosteel Group will inject 3.0 billion pairs of eight steel restructuring, that is, iron and steel industry mergers and acquisitions of assets will trigger a storm was best reflected in electricity, transport facilities and other industries, similar situations are occurring one after another.
However, in 2007 the new situation, a high-profile operation of large blue-chip has not realistic and easier to provoke dissatisfaction with the management; only by taking a relatively moderate approach in the long run by the market and management's endorsement. Demonstrated by the recent market sell into the big blue-chip initiative is a concrete manifestation of the main force of the new scheme. On the one hand, take the initiative the way down callback index, you can suppress the enthusiasm of the market sought after second and third line stocks, the market focus has returned to large blue chips. On the other hand, the market has already accumulated in the main, the contradiction between management and the market will need to pass a callback to resolve a certain extent, so that in the interest of Quotes of the further development.
B) the main financial Game:
Recent major differences in significantly increased funding, the most obvious example is China Life, the valuation at between 20-90 yuan, a big gap between the valuation range, in fact, the first day of listing of China Life up to 50% turnover, turnover of up to 12 billion the amount of funds is sufficient to explain the large differences. However, from the capital flow out of the situation, realized the scale of departure is not large, indicating the mainstream funds still agree with the broad market adjustment, the limited point of view, but in choosing investment targets appeared on a certain division, part of the funds in 2007 Market expectations were limited, began to select plates little could be expected to outperform blue-chip index of growth stocks. In addition, the index is inseparable from the large blue-chip bullish boost, and combined with its financial capacity, also has fundamental support, large blue-chip priority in the selection of funds is still great variety.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Note that large blue-chip stocks and growth may arise between the rhythm of switching, it is recommended to focus on the texture of a better investment fund holding, or second-line blue-chip low price-earnings ratio. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: Big City, is expected next week, is expected to rebound from.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: It is recommended to maintain a certain caution, reduce operational.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: It is recommended rallies to trim, proper control positions.
