Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-20
Regular issuance of central bank open market operations 3-year notes, the impact on the market is gradually brought into play, so clearly demonstrated the medium-term bond yields rise, yields began to move up the bottom of the medium-term bond yields to a certain degree of uplift is bound to transfer to a longer maturity period, but the short-term bond yields remained relatively stable. Funds currently on the market is still adequate, short-term debt is still a haven for funds. This indicates that a steeper yield curve will increase, due to inflationary pressures will gradually increase, with the gradual and long-term bonds, the future rise in rates of return to the longer duration of transmission, resulting in yield curve shape change, by steep rate will could accelerate.
The open market this week due to injecting capital 280 billion yuan, taking into account a number of new shares will be issued only to, in particular the issue next week, Ping An Insurance, while commercial banks need to invest large sums of cash, money market funds have diverted a large pressure. In view of new shares issued before the holiday are more likely to face financial instability, it is necessary to retain a certain degree of liquidity in order to seize the investment opportunities in undervalued markets, while short-term types of investments mainly to avoid long-term risk of rising interest rates.
Since January, the RMB appreciation against the U.S. dollar exchange rate showed the trend to accelerate, the first time yesterday, U.S. Dollar 7.75 to 7.7496. Accelerate the pace of RMB appreciation reflects the management hopes to improve the trade balance, structure, and to ease liquidity pressures, major changes in the interest rate policy difficult circumstances, through the regulation of exchange-rate policy to prevent the emergence of domestic investment in overheating and defuse the inflationary pressures. On the other hand, it may indicate that in January's trade surplus is still at a higher level.
National Development and Reform Commission released data show that in 2006 China's industrial profits up 31%, an increase of 3 percentage points increase over the first half, 8.4 percentage points over the previous year. Additional profits are too concentrated in the upstream industry, the situation improved significantly. Among them, coal, petrochemical, metallurgy, nonferrous metals, building materials accounted for five additional profits upstream sector Industrial Estate 51.1% increase in profits, down 16 percentage points, mainly because the profitability of manufacturing enterprises in 2006 has increased, dilution of the resource to increase the proportion of product profitability. China's industrial enterprises on sales of 6.09%, up by 0.27 percentage points, at a high level in recent years. Among them, textile and light industry sales record margin the highest level since 2002. The upstream part of the resource due to the recent price declines and the downstream product prices, combined with rapid growth in consumption enable enterprises to further improve profitability and have the inner motivation to expand production, driving up the possibility of increasing investment rebound.
Liquidity to maintain loose structure and corporate strong demand for loans under the influence in January yuan of credit may be a significant increase in the market expect the central bank will be introduced austerity policies. However, since last year's Spring Festival in January, the base period price levels are higher in January of this year's price increases may slow down. January wholesale price index of agricultural products fell 0.4%, chain rose by 1.4%, as growth has slowed down agricultural prices are expected to rise in January CPI will be less than 2%, to a certain extent, ease the upward pressure on bond yields. In addition, in order to maintain the stability of the surface before the Spring Festival of funds, the central bank regulatory policies issued before the holiday are also less likely.
