Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-12-04
Historical retrospective: from scratch "In this time last year I was very much the nerve to say the stock market will usher in a major bull market, and now I also think this a bull market will continue." Witnessed over the history in order to understand the stock market where the problem lies in what can be precise to predict the stock market's direction. "Securities Market Weekly" Fang, deputy director of China's stock market is divided into seven stages of development and noted that the stock market has existed its inherent logic, which is just witnessed the seven stages from the newly established China's stock market to gradually mature difficult process.
The first stage of reform and the beginning of 1981 to 1986 of the embryonic period. Although the national stock exchange that is handed over, with those of the establishment is still a decade later, this time there have been some or name or the actual stock. The first name of the stock in 1981, Sichuan Sichuan are building the company issued shares to its staff members. Although the said shares, but have a fixed interest, dividends and to allow redemption, so more like a bond. The first branch in the strict sense of the shares was born in Shanghai Feile Audio-Visual's stock for the first time public offering and was Deng Xiaoping as a gift in 1986, presented to the NYSE chief executive Er-lin.
Shares as financial products, their functions have two, financing and resource allocation optimization. At this stage there is no stock market trading mechanism, it can only provide enterprises with the financing channels for optimum allocation of resources will need to wait after the formation of the open trading market. And because most of the issuer or Subdistrict collective enterprises are small enterprises and the economy at the fringe of the national economy and not much impact.
From 1986 to 1990 the founding stage of the stock market. In August 1986, Shenyang Trust began to conduct treasury bonds listed transactions, then the Shanghai branch of ICBC will soon start publicly traded an old eight-legged essay in Shanghai, Shenzhen, appeared at the same time, the openness of the stock market, even though the stock traded only three, but the due to active trading, the price has begun to constant fluctuation, and directly led to the spread arbitrage behavior the first time. A single spark can start a prairie fire, early in 1990 with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Shanghai Stock Exchange have been established, the stock market officially announced the establishment of centralized, China's stock market and therefore for the first time with a resource allocation function.
1990 to 1992, 1992 and 1997, the stock market, and the pilot phase of the symbolic. At this point China's stock market is in a period of time to cross the river by feeling the stones, the stock market regulatory mechanism began to take shape, and provides for restrictions on trading volume rose and fell. However, in the southern tour, before the stock market can continue to be long-standing problem of ownership constraints, Capitalist or Socialist, thus affecting the survival of the most important topic of the stock market. Deng Xiaoping's southern tour in his speech that "the stock market to be a pilot, the pilot off they do not succeed, or the left tail off, or do not stay in the tail of the customs," a word to protect the stock market, and the Chinese stock market in May 1996 ushered in the the first great bull market. Regulatory mechanism is not yet mature in the context of the rapid development of the stock market immediately had a problem: a proliferation of black market behavior. The pressure the stock market has thus become the next one of the elements of macro-control.
1997 to 2001 is the practical stage of the stock market. 15 Grand for the first time from the constitutional level to recognize the "joint-stock system is a special form of public ownership," At this point, the formal establishment of the status of the stock market. In 1999 the stock market started the second period, this growth has continued into 2001. Too hot out of the stock market has seriously fundamentals support, high price-earnings ratio, a large number of irregularities is being constantly exposed, Guangxia, Lam Tin and other events was a microcosm of the stock market chaos. At the same time the role of the stock market has been defined as "state-owned enterprises turnaround" in a way, a large number of state-owned enterprises into the stock market looking for money, quality varies.
From 2001 to 2005, is the stock market during the transition period, the new Securities and Futures Commission started to improve the regulatory regime. However, in the equity issue is not completely resolved under the premise, the state is both a judge athletes, the reform did not receive the expected results. During this period have been strictly underestimate the value of the stock price even lower than the face value once the stock market not only failed to optimal allocation of resources one that even the most basic fund-raising function can not be achieved.
"In May 2005 the share has changed, China's stock market to reinvent the wheel of a process, Phoenix Nirvana." Split share structure reform, the stock market directly Miaoxiang the most fundamental problem, Mr. Fang thus asserted, "China's rise from the ashes will usher in the stock market is their golden years. "
Stock value: Opportunities and Challenges Professor of Management, Fudan University, Xie Hyakuzo that China's stock market will usher in "the biggest bull market for 5,000 years," the existence of the stock market depends on its value, the bull market is dependent on the value of the stock market has been increasing. The value of the stock market factor is divided into three levels, namely, the value of the discovery of the revaluation and the creation.
Found that the support the stock value of the development of favorable factors. Despite the many variables affecting the stock market, but the immediate impact of the stock market variables are favorable factors. First, macroeconomic stability and development for the stock market provided a guarantee. Prior to 20 years of rapid economic growth has not reflected in the stock market is because most of the stock market industry, the edge of the main enterprise, but truly reflects the development of the industry trend of most of the leading companies listed abroad, with the blue chip companies into the domestic stock market and macro-economic relevance will continue to improve. Secondly, the modern enterprise system will continue to enhance and further improve the average quality of listed companies in order to ensure the sound development of the stock market. On the one hand, management incentives and other mechanisms which would allow listed companies began to market value as the goal, on the other hand, diminishing the possibility of false behavior, the stock market order can be guaranteed. Third, the RMB appreciation will have to promote the role of the stock market. According to experience in Japan and South Korea and other countries, currency values and the stock market showed a strong positive correlation. At present the real purchasing power of the yuan against the U.S. dollar is 1:5, which means that there is 50% of the appreciation of the yuan space, which the stock market is a very powerful support. Fourth, the macroeconomic impact of the demographic dividend will be refracted into the stock market. 1.3 billion of the population on the one hand makes the low labor costs, and high savings rates while reducing the cost of capital, on the other hand, consumption of escalating macroeconomic stimulus provided a guarantee for a more positive the stock market. Fifth, the upgrading of industrial structure is also strong support for macro-economic. Sixth, the ongoing institutional change is conducive to the improvement of the stock market, such as stock index futures, private equity funds into the open, the listed company system enhancements.
Revaluation can be illustrated in two ways. First, the new accounting system implementation. The new accounting system highlights the status of fair value, making the company the value of the book has been greatly improved. For example, the initial purchase price to the valuation of the land is now priced at fair value, there will be many times the value of growth. Similarly, the stock records of costs and benefits of the system change also makes the company's book value to better reflect the company's actual situation. Secondly, the introduction of international standards. In 2005, Belgium, InBev acquired Fujian Sedrin, the net asset value of only 6 billion yuan brewery close to the final bid of 6.0 billion, nearly 10 times the purchase price higher than the net. Not long ago, in its acquisition of Fujian Yanjing Brewery beer Huiquan another one when the transaction price higher than the net assets of only 20%. With the international standard constantly being introduced, the assessment of the value of listed companies will be more scientific, which is beneficial to the stock market long-term development.
Value creation aimed at the situation in terms of the assets of listed companies. First, the share reform, the original of the listed companies in the new incentives will be more constraints tend to be high-quality assets, the stock exchange; Secondly, the domestic companies in various industries concentration is very low, very few sectors which have the absolute leader, but As the stock markets mature, more and more companies will choose to continue to expand the enterprise scale mergers and acquisitions to gain market power to increase corporate profitability. Most of the previous restructuring in order to protect the shell are different, the new M & A market restructuring more benign. Once again, foreign acquisitions in enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises and thus the expansion of domestic market share or even to enter the international market is very favorable. These factors together will significantly improve the listed company's operating performance, and thus indirectly affect the value of the stock market, and thus affect the stock market.
Turning to the stock market value, to talk about price-earnings ratio. Nowadays more popular support for the overheated stock market point of view is that the overall price-earnings ratio is still too high last year, an average of 40 times earnings, far higher than the mature 15 to 20 times the stock's price-earnings ratio. Does this mean that the real value of the company stock price seriously out of line? In Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, for example, including major companies such as PetroChina, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and other company's overall earnings higher, while the higher price-earnings ratio of these companies in part because of its ability to monopolize the business has not been fully played out, space is still very profitable Great, all these factors, the dynamic price-earnings ratio could be reduced to 22 times, and then remove the recent institutional investors favor large-cap stocks and other factors, the stock market, and there is no sign of overheating.
Investment Strategy: Shou is surprisingly "Stock market is essentially a speculative market, is a monetary phenomenon, uncertainty is its greatest feature." Strategy of investing in stocks, and investment concepts of investment in long-term investments and trends in the corresponding operation methods should be long-term and short-term distinction. Regardless of the length of the period, the risk is bound to exist.
Trends in long-term investments and investment difference is that one pay more attention to the company's actual value, while the other pay more attention to stock price changes brought about by the possibility of arbitrage. So for long-term investment, how to determine a company's value is more important. As noted above, the company's value discovery, including price-earnings ratio, the main business profitability, industry position, etc.; revaluation include changes in the system before and after changes in the value; and value creation is the company in the market may be taken or restructuring strategy has been adopted. Value found to be the easiest, followed by reassessment, coupled with the creation of almost impossible to be observed, because the corporate strategy are not public information. By contrast, trends in investment or speculation, and by the short-term trend changes in stock prices were to buy space to achieve the benefits of short selling. Its run, the various kinds of price changes may affect the message is the most important.
And the corresponding investment philosophy, methods of operation in accordance with the length of a long-term short-term and mid-term risks of different and can not be avoided. Long-term investments can be avoided in the short term price fluctuations can not guarantee long-term benefits, the cost of higher short-term investments, and higher risk, medium-term in between. A single investment risk is too large, the effective combination of risk diversification and effective approach. Honesty and integrity that is surprisingly's strategy to ensure certainty in the case of earnings, with the energy to win the risky return on investment.
Against the question of when to buy when to sell, in general, the stock price-earnings ratio is too high or too low are not normal, the value of a certain period of time there will be greater volatility, however, be able to find out price-earnings ratio as long as the abnormal the reasons behind the trend of stock prices can basically have a more accurate forecast. Of course, this strategy is not a panacea, because the low price-earnings ratio of stocks to avoid the company is not operating properly, too much company stock can not rule out the possibility of the growth prospects for good and so on.
