Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-03-11
Investment Points
â—?Annual Report of the performance of listed companies landslides, Pre-losing company's increase in this year's annual performance of wave may be only partial advantage to start in the industry and individual stocks;
â—?non-ferrous and mineral resources, real estate, medicine, coal, chemical fertilizer into the pre-growing companies report the largest number of the top five major industries, and will become the mainstream of institutional funds and other blue chips, the main battlefield of the Nuggets Annual Report;
â—?to improve the operating conditions, access to non-operating income and substantial assets, reorganization and other low-cost losses and shares in favor of hot money hot money markets, the existence of intermittent investment opportunities;
â—?Annual Report of the performance of local blue-chip blue-chip share reform to support the market forces of waves and the joint action, will be the end of 2005 to early 2006, an important force for stability in stock and grasp the "three principles" has become run-off 2005 Annual Report of the performance of local wave the key.
December 19, 2005, China's stock market will spend her 15th birthday. During the year, the young Chinese stock market since the stock market suffered a downturn since its inception an unprecedented period: 1000 points, the Shanghai index recognized by the market "policy at the end", "technology at the end" on June 6 was down broken. However, when towards the end, a surge led by blue-chip stock index puts the power to do more tenaciously to pull up the half line, trading stocks gradually active volume have begun to slowly enlarge.
From the overall market environment, if the speculation in the stock subject to change when cooled to new investment themes emerged, then, A-share market may be out of the current "tasteless Quotes" situation, and finally blooming passion for new investment. Shares from the attributes of the recent strength, there is a common feature, that is: performance generally good, optimistic about future growth expectations. Main funds in the current start these blue-chip blue-chip, most likely to make the market think of is that the annual results ahead of launching waves Quotes. So, the market performance could usher in a wave do?
From a historical perspective, China's stock market since its inception, there have been a real sense of the performance of two waves: the first round of the 1996 to 1997, from blue-chip stocks, Sichuan Changhong, Shenzhen Development originator, to point, and triggered a vigorous multi-year blue-chip stock market, and promote the emergence of a new high two cities of the bull market, of which the Shanghai index rose 550 points, 1,500 points; the second round was in 2003 and 2004, from automobiles, steel, petrochemical and other "five Golden Flowers ", led by industry section, in the industry economy greatly enhance the degree of the context of the two triggered a bear market bounce back. 2003 wave of start-up time performance in early January, running until April 16 that the annual end of the period came to an end; 2004 performance wave start-up time in the 2003 November 13, on April 7, 2004 is over, the Quotes in this round, there has been increase of more than 500 points, the trend up to 1783 points. In addition to these two performance waves, other years the market for performance wave of expectations that the market can only be a product of inertia of thinking, that almost every year in its annual report, semi-annual or even quarterly disclosure stage, market participants are given a wave of performance high expectations, but the market usually fail to materialize people's wishes.
Well, the end of this year's overall rise in blue-chip blue-chip is a performance wave of another "wonderful performance", or reproduce the "thunder rain and little" in an awkward situation? We believe that this will depend on three factors: First, the overall performance of listed companies, whether there will be growth; second, the current market environment, ability to meet the performance conditions to promote Quotes; third growth industry in individual stock price performance has been fully speculation .
First of all, after the first two years of rapid growth, the annual reports of listed companies this year, the growth rate significantly dropped drastically slowing corporate earnings growth trend is becoming a reality. Statistics show that as of early December, about 421 stocks published the annual results notice, including the 2005 Annual Report Yejiyuzeng, losses, Pre-losing, pre-listed companies were reduced 97, 55, 177, 80 , representing the proportion of notice of the company were 23.04%, 13.06%, 42.04%, 19%; while the pre-2004 annual report increasing losses, Pre-losing, pre-reduction were 262, 111, 166, 91, accounting for notice to the company ratios were 41.52%, 17.59%, 16.31%, 14.42%. Compared with the 2004 Annual Report 2005 Annual Report of the pre-increase, the proportion of losses and other good news, the company dropped by almost half, while the pre-cut Pre-losing companies such as the proportion of reporting only bad news has doubled, suggesting that listed companies to the industry downturn of the economy peaked trend is clearly .
Second, the current depressed market transactions, the amount can gradually shrinking, while the volume is whether the formation of large-scale wave of speculation in the performance a prerequisite, the recent turnover of the two cities about the amount of billions of dollars do not have the basic prerequisites for the formation of the performance waves. At the same time, a number of stocks with low price-earnings ratio is not very resilient, such as steel, automobiles, ports and so on, because of its recent gains due to technical oversold, some good stock performance has not been imagined in the hype, and even appeared a little of the decline.
Finally, because the general has taken notice of annual performance of the system performance of listed companies suspense greatly reduced, performance good, stable growth stocks in the vast majority have been able to advance in their movements reflect market speculation rather be able to inspire enthusiasm that only those unexpected, performance larger growth stocks, that is, a number of significant changes in the performance of the industry and listed companies to better reflect the performance of stock price changes in the presence of speculation Quotes, although this will lead to the market performance of hot spots is difficult to form a continuity of the relative concentration of speculation.
Overall, this year, speculation is more likely to report results for the manifestation of the formation of local hot spots, large areas of speculation on the performance of the pattern of individual stocks does not appear. However, despite the overall annual results of listed companies may not hold much hope for waves, but the partial plate and stocks are still expected to launch an annual report is published with strong upside market, we can be defined as the partial results of this wave Quotes. Some real growth of listed companies with its trend to the good can be expected, while the annual performance growth will be contributed to the listed company's share price rose to a fulcrum. Therefore, those with a performance increase of the theme "good stocks" is expected by the market in pursuit of hot money, which has the potential to become a leader in year-end rally. At the same time, the market continued to fall through, the majority of listed company's share price had then drop beyond recognition, some results are expected to grow, or is expected to by virtue of the substantive restructuring of brand new shares are to follow down, making these stocks share price and intrinsic value of investments acquired at a relatively low resonance , which is expected to generate price inflection point. Believe that the market over this period of repeated thoughts, will be the investment value of such stocks to make new judgments, afternoon return to the value of these varieties will embark on the road, and this serious departure from the fundamentals and stock price phenomenon, just Such shares will be the future of an important opportunity to take off.
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