|
|||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||
Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: ZHANG Guang-wen, Guangzhou Securities
The past six months A-share market in China since the emergence of a more obvious feature is the increasingly speculative nature. Turnover and earnings from the situation, the price-earnings ratio is a clear overestimate, higher than the rest of the world stock markets, reaching an average of 40 times. Turnover, even if is based on the total flow of capital rather than equity, then it is also more than twice as high as the major stock markets. The world's major capital markets such as Britain, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, Hong Kong, India, in general maintain an annual turnover of about 100-150% level, in which more mature stock markets such as the United States, Europe, basically have an annual turnover of about 100%, while the Chinese A-share market turnover this year, up to 235%. To know that the Chinese A shares, there are more of the equity is not in circulation, such as the calculation of the actual flow of capital stock, A stock turnover has reached 800%, far more than other securities market.
On the other hand, now the daily turnover of A shares or even more than the sum of the entire Asian market, which is unthinkable. At present, Japan + India + Hong Kong + Singapore, the total turnover of A shares is still not great. In fact, if now the volume analysis, A-share market in the near future is not just a zero-sum game, perhaps even negative-sum game. If such a volume under the current year to the Government's stamp duty on the investors, coupled to the broker's commission, the sum exceeds the profits of all listed companies, dividends, this state is incredible, such a volume and speculative analysis, is impossible to continue.
The recent fall in market sentiment from the point of view, also greatly diminished the enthusiasm of investors enter the market, A-share accounts at the number of days of down there. According to China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, June 4 new A-share accounts at only 19.7 million, this year the first time since April 11 fell below 200,000 per day. The B shares of the accounts at only 2656, with five mid-day peak of more than 50,000 households a far cry.
Of course, from the current A-share market valuation analysis, the blue chips are still relatively cheap and safe. Blue-chip earnings accounted for about 65% of the market, but the market value of only about 45% of the market compared with trash stocks considered in terms of relatively inexpensive, but from a rational point of view is still relatively high valuation. According to the data, the entire A-share market in less than 30 times the price-earnings ratio of stocks, there are still about 200, representing the market value is still high, which means there is plenty of selection space. The price-earnings ratio is higher than 100 times the stock as high as 100 or more surprisingly, garbage stocks bubbling phenomenon is obvious. Therefore, the structural differentiation of future market conditions expected to be quite obvious that high price-earnings ratio of garbage stocks need both squeezed too much foam, in the blue-chip low price-earnings ratio will also have a new long-term investment funds. Judging from the index, after all A-share index has risen four-fold significant increase in the near future expect to continue to desire to clearly not realistic in the next phase of the adjustment may take longer time and the rate would be wider, restructuring and investment in variety of positions combination with blue-chip-based, to avoid trash species to prevent the investment risk is likely to increase gradually become mainstream.
In this context, the recent hot market, is shifting some blue-chip blue-chip and fund holding, proposes a focus on hot plates are as follows:
Zhongtian Technology (600,522): The company recently won the bid to move 27 thousand kilometers of the largest 10,000 kilometers Central Purchasing orders for radio frequency cables. Sinopec and CNOOC in the submarine optical cable tender also been nearly 100 km of optical cable orders. Is close to issuing stock prices, the company issued in May 26 directed issuance of notice of the previous 20 trading day average share price 90% of the arithmetic to calculate additional value of about 9.81 yuan, an additional issue price of shares continued to fall risk has been locked, it is recommended attention.
Tongdu Copper (000630): The company as a copper smelting enterprises, being the upstream and downstream expansion, is expected to 09-2010 years will form a complete industrial chain of copper. Namely, a substantial increase in the level of copper concentrate self-sufficiency, copper and deep-processed products shape. Currently copper smelting assets, mainly Jinchang smelting, copper, and this year would be issued Zhangjiagang into Jinlong Copper. 2007 Total capacity of 600,000 tons, is expected to grow 10% next 2 years. Is expected to post additional 50,000 tons of copper concentrate production capacity. Increase from the smelting of copper concentrate production capacity to expand and increase in production. 09-2010 year is expected to be completed with the expansion of the industrial chain, will enter a new stage of development. EPS0.84 the next two years, and 0.99 yuan, the medium-term concern.
Citroen Logistics (600,125): The company announced the issuance of not exceeding 8 million A shares, raising 700 million, the funds raised for the financing of sand threadfin Line Capacity Expansion (3 million) and purchase of 10002 thousand special containers (3.96 million) and support for the container transportation business. In view of the business prospects of a better real estate and container will be 07-08 years, raised its profit forecast 22-23% ,07-09 earnings per share increased to 0.45,0.58,0.67 yuan, a considerable 52% increase in 2007, 07 -- 31% compound growth in 2009. In addition to outside the additional dilution of the stock dividend in 2006 plans to expand equity, it is recommended.
[1] [2] Next Page
Weifu Hi-tech (000,581): the company expects the recent introduction of energy-saving environmental protection "program" to develop energy-saving emission targets will promote the national EU II emission standards for the transition to the European III emission standards, the company's three operating configuration support: RBCD formally put into production in 2008 EU III pump than expected sales growth is expected to significantly enhance the investment returns on the 07 and 2008 earnings estimates have confidence in PE valuation of 30 times, corresponding to 2008 and reasonable price of 24.6 yuan forecast EPS, stock prices kept undervalued, the proposed long-term focus concern.
Open Coal Mining (002,128): The company is the one of the five open coal mine, the main products are high-quality lignite. Group assets into the future development of major support, the controlling shareholder of CLP Huomei has promised will be listed on the 2nd open pit, open pit mine on the 3rd采矿权转让to the company, reserves of 8.2793 million tons and 1.376 billion tons, all the construction in 2005 2010, full production is forecast to 07-09 years, earnings per share 0.77,0.89 and 0.97 yuan, the proposed long-term concern.
China's Sinopec (600028): In this year's oil pricing mechanism will open up, oil refining industry will be under the full realization of profits, Sinopec in 2006 operational data better than expected. Where natural gas production, retail sales volume of refined oil products, ethylene and synthetic resin production to 13 percent faster than growth, slightly higher than expected. Company A Unit is currently the latest P / B and P / E, respectively 14.88 times and 3.26 times, compared with international peers, the valuation level is very. Considering the current A-share market bull market environment, the company's valuation is still an advantage. The current international crude oil prices relatively stable, the company's production and operation will be beneficial. Company's refining business, increasingly profitable, it will be an important guarantee for the growth of this year's performance. Income tax rate "two tax merger" is a potential good, reasonable pricing in the range between 7.80 ~ 10.80 yuan, static P / E of 13-18 times. The company A share price of investment opportunities to reproduce, recently there are signs of money involved, in the context of stock index futures, big heavyweight market value should be of concern.
Baiyun Airport (600004): At present, only 15 billion in market value is the Shenzhen Airport, 70% of its business nearly 60% higher than the latter, obviously underestimated. The potential earnings growth force the release of the next two years. Full-load pricing of the domestic airport, 30 times the basic PE, reflecting the market's saturated airport expansion is expected to welcome a good growth cycle, according to full capacity in 2010, after 20-23 times PE pricing, with 8% discount rate discount and reasonable price of 17.6-20.3 yuan, it is recommended the medium-term focus.
Yantian (000,088) Yantian Port, recently issued a public notice, the company agreed in principle to the mouth of Hutchison Whampoa Yantian Port Investment Co., Ltd. held by the transfer of Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Limited's 23.33% stake. Share transfer is completed, Hutchison's stake increased to 65%, becoming the controlling shareholder, and the company holding the proportion dropped to 35%. Hutchison Whampoa Yantian International 12 itself holds 73% stake in Yantian International 3, and three extended 65% stake. The share transfer is completed, the Shenzhen Yantian Port Area will be in absolute control of Hutchison Whampoa. After controlling access to the West Port will be conducive to the Hutchison Whampoa Yantian Port Area as a whole the implementation of integrated operation is conducive to Yantian District, route allocation, the amount of the distribution box, uniform rates throughout the port area, large-scale effects will be fully expression. West Port Terminals in 2006 to achieve throughput of 568.9 thousand TEU, operating income of 142.47 million, single-box revenue was only 250 yuan, while Yantian International single-box revenue of up to 700. Yantian international integration into the business in the West Port of the level of tariffs, operational efficiency and revenue profitability are expected to be significantly improved. Yantian District, all terminals from the existing shareholding structure, except salt 12 and yellow 73% stake, the other terminals are for the allocation of equity ratio and yellow 65%, 35% of Yantian Port Group, or companies. Therefore, in order to maintain the relative balance of equity, does not rule out the transfer of the future and the yellow to the company's stake in Yantian International 12, so that the proportion of company ownership, and other terminals to achieve the same 35% of the equity ratio possible. If the company can successfully holdings of Yantian International 12 8% stake, then the profit level will be significantly improved. In addition, there are assets of the company's future integration of the possibility of listed companies, currently belongs to the port, one of the most expensive, long-term concern.
CITIC Securities (600030): the stock market is expected to adjust the stamp duty will not make average daily trading volume fell to 150 billion below the average daily volume of transactions, such as by a conservative calculation of 150 billion, CITIC Securities 2007 net profit of 6.5 billion is expected to ultra-share profit is expected to ultra 2.3 yuan, the current dynamic city, less than 25 times earnings, the next three years should exceed 30% compound annual growth rate, 30 times the dynamic PE more appropriate, and the stock index futures, direct investment and business, margin trading, earnings ultra-high-speed growth, are a potential catalyst for stock price, target price of 70 yuan, medium-term concern.
Shanghai Airport (60009): Shanghai Airport Authority objective is to develop into a major aviation hub in Asia-Pacific region airports, build a hub route network and flight-wave, with two inputs and extension of the progressive implementation of the plan, a huge space for development. The future integration of listed companies within the group through the air main business and assets. With the end of stock reform and capital market assets injection and the overall market becomes stronger, there has been no concrete action program and timetable. Another group has not yet restructured during the year listed as a whole less likely, and perhaps advance into viable assets. 07-08 years is expected to EPS0.87 and 0.97 yuan, dynamic PE value of 37 times and 33 times, concerns.
Previous [1] [2]
