Category: Money Tips Date: 2005-12-28
Abstract: In the market, the emerging pattern of a major turning point in the context of any strategic look at the empty A-share market investment strategies are outdated. Short-term factors even in the medium term, the current Anchaoyongdong the end of the year has also implies a huge opportunity for spring sowing. From the future market trend, in December to around January next year, will become the mainstream investors to another important initiative Jiancang time period, the current market has actually emerged undercurrent surging, with the passage of time will gradually come spring. Market Trends: A-share market to build a long-term bottom
From a historical point of view, the current A-share market, whether from the technical side, the fundamentals still look at the system plane, have entered a period of time to build a long-term bottom, but this period is also involved in long-term investors to collect the bottom of the chip The golden age. First of all, a continued decline in more than four years has basically been eliminated since 1999, A-share market bubble in 2001, has been one of the most brutal fall of the C wave decline has entered the end, most indices have been entered during the period 1992-1998 to build a solid box support, continue down the space has been substantially blocked. Secondly, A-share market valuation has been completely into line with the mature markets and emerging markets in Asia has become the lowest in the valuation of one of the few stock markets, China's macro-control is further compressed the performance of listed companies the cyclical nature of water, solidified the fundamentals of long-term basis for valuation. Third, the long-troubled A-share market's tradable shares issue will be completed next year, the market up or down to full circulation and physical performance of the economy and the performance of listed companies is more closely related to the lifting of the system brought about by the fetters of a listed company "proceeds release" process will produce a strong wealth effect, which is already enough to resist the cyclical performance of listed companies in 2006 the downward trend, A-share market continued to decline in the momentum would also be there. Thus, in all, I believe that starting in 2006, A-share market has actually entered a crucial period for building a long-term bottom, which is involved in a number of investors to reconsider the golden age of A-share market.
But as a whole experienced a bear market investors, most of them have been transformed into a short-term holdings, band operation transactional speculators. Construction of a long-term at the bottom of the market often needs to undergo a repeated confirmation process, so I would expect that even in 2006, the market is still a relatively consistent with the survival of investors trading the soil. Run trend from the market point of view, the restoration of capital-driven market, the process is expected to continue to create in 2006 a quarter of the market opportunity for prosperity, but followed the old and new classified section, refinancing, performance decline, and the full circulation the fear will soon take the upper hand, the market there is a large number of transactional speculators panic throws, it might make A-share market to re-look at the bottom. However, with the fear gradually subsided, full circulation is not brought about "full dump", but listed companies to dramatically "performance release" a large number of listed companies are trying to raise stock prices to increase business value, at the same time, IPO began to attract a large number of large long-term funds allowed, including QFII yuan revaluation effects and effects began to enlarge rapidly, A-share market in the second half of 2006 will most likely unexpected soaring market, so that all those who are accustomed to bear to do the transaction band Type speculators collectively Ta Kong. Thus, in all, I suggest that investors can be considered the beginning of the end of the year and gradually chip bargain-hunting, perhaps before and after the first quarter of next year there is an opportunity-band operation. However, the long-term investors, shareholders may be discarded after the bear market mentality in the second half and establish an important way to the bull market strategy.
Hot Market: From dual structure into the multi-release
In a sense, the pre-weakening market leading blue chip companies, small-cap stocks firmer, in addition to A-share market factors, the style of wheel movement, another an extremely important factor is the A-share market investment is the main structure of subtle changes: A-share market is moving from a bear market into a fund-led unipolar market, and gradually entered a bear market end of institutional change during the increasingly wide range of multi-level capital market, this multi-level market, the main features will With the gradual Qudan bear market atmosphere while becoming increasingly clear, and gradually constitute a complete chain of ecological structure A-share market. Judging from the current situation, multi-level market, the main chain has been included in funds, insurance funds, QFII funds, listed companies, funds, brokerage funds, all kinds of hot money, small and medium investors in funds, one covering the institutions and individual investors, funds and virtual real economy economic capital, domestic and foreign investment is accelerating the formation of multiple investors. It is conceivable that the next A-share market dominated by different investors diversified investment boom will lead to endless hot A-share market. "Stood out is not a spring", A-share market to really get out of a bear market into the stock market in the spring, the need flourishing process.
For investors, the market structure constitutes a deduction to determine its implementation an important basis for future investment strategy. I believe that: Focus on the order of multi-agency approach of funds, impact strength, will be accurate A-share market to determine hot spots of the key stages. First, hot money due to the operation of the community is most rapid in the first quarter of next year will still be hot money, was expected to lead the market. The stock-picking ideas from the hot money terms, concepts, themes and low-cost are indispensable. Thus, including new energy, digital television, cable networks, 3G, appreciation of the renminbi under the influence of financial and real estate stocks, which are most likely to become the market concentration of the hot spots. Secondly, QFII and the insurance funds from the Perspective of A-share market will also have effect, such as steel, transportation, energy and other basic strategic industries, will also be gradually stabilized stabilized. Third, in the second half after the protagonist of the market-listed companies are likely to become extremely large shareholders, the majority of incentives in place for listed companies are likely to arise a stunning performance of the release process, a large number of major shareholders and listed companies to buy tradable shares, 2 Grade merger begins to appear, they are likely to create a wave of magnificent rally. By then, including closed-end fund discounts from high to low and even the portion of premium discounts are made possible, in order to fundamentals-driven institutional investors beginning to think that the Chinese economy is about to begin a new round of recovery, including insurance, QFII and so began to increase funding to buy into the lines, while the small and medium investors in the wealth effect of a huge influx of A-share market began to market gradually being strengthened into a new cycle.
From an investment perspective, the end of the year the beginning of A-share market again, although there is still likely to bottom in 2006, markets are likely to become even more complicated situation. However, the pattern emerging in the market against the backdrop of a major turning point, any strategic look at the empty A-share market investment strategies are outdated. Short-term factors even in the medium term, the current Anchaoyongdong the end of the year has also implies a huge opportunity for spring sowing. Thus, for the vast majority of investors, the current phase should be able to gradually take into account is a time for bargain-hunting buying the stock.
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