Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-08-27
1, our overall view of the macroeconomic
2006 China's economy is expected to "moderate slowdown", but will continue to maintain relatively fast growth. Investment in China's economic growth is still the first driving force. The Chinese government's principle is "not only to prevent the blind expansion of investment, but also to maintain a reasonable scale of investment." Expected 2006 growth rate of fixed asset investment of around 22% compared with 05 the year was slightly lower.
Consumption is expected to maintain a slow growth in 2006. Short to medium term expectations of a large-scale consumer launch of China's economic growth a rapid increase in the contribution of not realistic. The key is to start rural consumption market, solve the "three rural" issue, to raise farm income levels and spending power, becoming the next few years the Chinese government a top priority.
2005 China's foreign trade surplus reached 100 billion U.S. dollars, compared with the previous year an additional 700 billion dollars. Foreign trade surplus for the year 2005 the contribution of China's economic growth rate of 35%, second only to investment in fixed assets. If you do not consider the trade surplus, China's GDP growth rate in 2005 slightly more than 6%.
2005 the formation of a huge Chinese trade surplus, there are many reasons. The fundamental reason is that the world economic situation good, strong external demand, China's manufacturing cost advantage into full play; a direct result of yuan appreciation is expected, resulting in a lot of exports in 2005 to advance the realization of many of its import delayed to beyond 2005 to achieve. Therefore, we believe that in 2005 foreign trade surplus of high growth is not sustainable. 2006 export and import growth is expected to slow somewhat, but will continue to maintain relatively fast growth. 2006 trade surplus will rise, but look forward to 2005, 70 billion U.S. dollars of incremental, not realistic. Optimistic estimate of the annual trade surplus in 2006, an increase over the previous year 300-500 million. To be sure, the trade surplus for the year 2006 the contribution of China's economic growth will decline.
2. We view the stock market as a whole
2006 China's stock market will continue to promote reform and institution building. Split share structure reform of listed companies in 2006 will enter a crucial stage, and a large number of junk stocks will also enter the share reform program. With the blue chips are different underperformance of the shares of listed companies will not help to change the intrinsic value and investment attractiveness of upgrading underperformance to complete share reform of listed companies to achieve tradable after the expansion will form a real pressure. We believe that the underperformance of the share reform of listed companies will have a negative impact on the market.
The current A-share market valuations are relatively reasonable, but the lack of a sufficiently large margin of safety, so there is no appeal outside the incremental funding. Consider the level of profitability of listed companies in 2006 will decline, A-share market valuation levels will be an upward trend. Downward trend earnings of listed companies in mid-2005 has begun to emerge. 2006 performance of listed companies is expected to decline will accelerate. A study, mainly due to share-based listed companies to state-owned enterprises, in the era of macro-economic slowdown, declining performance of state-owned holding listed companies will be faster.
2006 A-share market will start issuing new shares and refinancing of listed companies. Expansion of the market worried about problems, we think we need not fear too. Market expansion is not terrible, the key is to have a good listing of resources, and sold to investors at a reasonable price. If a combination of both, incremental funding will attract high-volume market, thus boosting the overall market activity. Therefore, how the system of the 2006 IPO changes affect the A-share market will become an important factor.
To sum up, 2006 A-share market do not yet have the formation of the bull market conditions and environment. 2006 will be more active balance of city, the trend does not have a large investment opportunities, but the share reform of listed companies with asset restructuring, refinancing and the issuance of new shares will be relatively large number of local and short-term investment opportunities.
Therefore, the first half of 2006 we will continue to take a defensive investment strategy, while actively explore the partial and short-term investment opportunities.
3,2006 thought the first half of Asset Allocation
For the cyclical industry, we see the need by category, and take the appropriate investment strategy.
The first petrochemical, steel, automotive and shipping industries, represented by the boom cycle has peaked, but still far away from the cycle trough. The industry as a whole does not have investment opportunities, factors other than only from cycle to seek investment opportunities in individual stocks.
The second category to building materials, aluminum, engineering machinery and other industries represented by these industries take the lead in the year 2004 the impact of macroeconomic regulation and control, and therefore the first to reach the bottom of the cycle. 2006 is expected to trough cycles in these industries will be a slow recovery. The recovery phase in the industry, leading enterprises to benefit first. For these industries, we have chosen to leading enterprises and enterprises to be configured.
The third type of coal, nonferrous metals, electrical equipment and real estate industries as representatives of these industries are still in the top of the boom cycle is expected to continue for some time. For these industries, we continue to be configured properly configured to reduce the proportion of stocks within the industry and the structure of optimal adjustment.
For the defense industry, first half of 2006 we will be the focal point for configuration, but also by category and take the appropriate investment strategy.
First class to highways, ports and airports on behalf of businesses and industries, these industries through the second half of 2005 after a full callback, the current valuation of the risks have been released. The first quarter of 2006 we stopped the transport sector holdings of assets, maintain the proportion of the original configuration, and to optimize the structural adjustment of individual stocks.
The second category on agriculture, food and beverage and pharmaceutical industries represented by these industries mostly listed companies to small and medium enterprises, information disclosure is not transparent and standardized, so valuation should be discounted. At present the stock of consumer goods does not have a valuation advantage. The first quarter of 2006 we have the appropriate configuration to reduce the proportion of, and to optimize the structural adjustment of individual stocks.
The third category is the service industry, 2006 to configure a gradual increase in the proportion of annual needs, especially those that can improve the quality of life of people in the service industries such as banking, telecommunications services, digital television, urban public transport, tourism services, environmental protection and so on.
Hot Articles New Article 2006 concerns are continuing capacity to increase the paper's daily report of actual Denver Nuggets daily combat report of the daily combat report of the daily combat Denver Nuggets report Yi Eryue investment strategy were: H shares lead A shares, against the big blue-chip return
* Recommended in 2006 with focus on long-term growth potential of the 19 stocks (with broad investment strategy of the Fund that the resources should be focused on mining stocks, the daily combat report of days with the Nuggets Fund: upstream downstream profit squeeze, investment upstream resources, priorities * 2006 concerned about the continued capacity to increase the paper's daily report of actual Nuggets
