Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-07-24
Shen Wan that low at 1000 points to 1050 points, between the gold that will be reversed next year, profits in some industries
It is now the end of 2005 remaining 40 trading days, the domestic research institutions in the two brokerages --- China International Capital Corporation and Shenyin Research Institute's latest report that the change in the stock Quotes tide, the market declines of reintegration, the remaining stock of two months of this year the focus is likely to continue downward. However, Shen million forecast in November -12 will appear on the market tactical opportunities, will be Jiancang opportunity.
A shares will continue to focus down
In October, the Shanghai Composite fell 5.4%, Shanghai and Shenzhen into just two or so stock. Listed companies in the third quarter report shows that the profitability of listed companies is not optimistic. The first three quarters of 2005 China's economy still maintained rapid growth of 9.4%, but the increases have occurred in non-listed companies to increase profits with the total sales revenue increased by 24.7%, but the overall net income was a negative growth of 2.7% occurs.
Shen 10000 report that the fourth quarter, and even performance of listed companies in the first quarter of next year downward trend will continue, and still can not get rid of blue-chip performance to bring the pressure down to the stock price, some cyclical industry leading company's share price is still some room to come down . Quotes of the stock of accumulated gains reform is too large part of the junk stocks will move toward the reunification of the road, and lead the market focus continues downward.
China International Capital Corporation study also points out that, A-share market there is a structural problem, namely, "overwhelming upstream downstream, earnings tend to focus on." At present, the upstream industry, earnings growth has slowed down, the downstream sector profitability further deterioration of the polarization seriously. The report predicts that poor fundamentals or earnings growth in the future of the high valuation of the risk of lack of sustainability of the stocks will gradually appear, there is a bubble valuation of individual stocks will be further adjusted polarization in individual stock price trend will continue. In this case, the lack of rebound in stock basis.
Tactical selling points at 1,000 points -1,050 points
Shen 10000 report that the decline was largely caused by short-term stock or IPO, and the first IPO of the plate is about to complete share reform small and medium plates, but the stock fell to 1,000 points in the vicinity of the market and policy game will be more intense, This determines that in November -12 on A-share market may bottomed-based. Triggered by events over the market down Jiancang will provide investors with a better chance at 1000 points, -1.05 thousand points can be overweight equities.
Shen Wan The study also said that from the interval to analyze the market volatility, in 1050 near, high-quality asset allocation opportunities will emerge. For a long time, high valuation and low percentage of institutional investors led to a long-term A-share market distortions, each time after a pause to resume issuing new shares and the broader market shares, "landing" will result in decline stage of the market, but overkill, the market in the shares then it will find a listing of repair of Quotes. In 2003 and 2004 by the end of the market have gotten a similar market, the new shares issued and not yet listed before the announcement, investors are often in the most pessimistic expectations of the stage, thus providing a better configuration of the opportunity.
Shen Wan believes that if the small plates can be completed in December the "new old", and make full circulation of the IPO, the market may appear a rather significant drop after the first opportunity to repair, it would be the best tactic to buy this year into an opportunity. Taking into account the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets also have significant monthly effect in December will also be the first quarter of next year, the strategic layout of the timing of major institutions.
Reversal will occur in some industries profit
In the Jiancang process, the next year, up opportunity will appear in which industry? China International Capital Corporation research report, Jiancang opportunities include two aspects. First, the profitability of listed companies under the overall decline in the defensive sector will remain the focus of the market; Second, some industries will be a profit opportunity for reversal.
China International Capital Corporation believes that the future earnings growth is more clear and better defensive industry and the leading stocks cause for concern. If a large drop in demand is not the case, banks, food and beverage, retail, pharmaceuticals and other consumer industries, as well as major ports, airports, toll roads and other transportation industries leading corporate earnings growth will remain relatively stable.
Next year, the profitability of some industries may appear reversed. Such as cement, electrolytic aluminum and other cyclical industries, along with the gradual digestion of excess production capacity and demand continued to grow, these industries will restore the balance of supply and demand, product prices stabilized and began a slow recovery, the industry's leading enterprises will benefit from the recovery in prices or a new the project capacity and effective resumption of the release of the profit growth; In addition, inflationary pressures are weakening as the future, oil refining, urban roads and other industries leading enterprises to benefit from relevant national price adjustment policies, the performance will be restored growth.
Shenyin is optimistic about recycling, environmental protection, economy and advanced manufacturing, due to benefit from the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan". Government's recycling economy and encourage the improvement of environmental protection requirements, making recycling, environmental protection and the economy as an investment hot spot. While those which have capability of independent innovation, technological innovation to reduce energy consumption in advanced manufacturing enterprises, but also will be more favored by the market.
