Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-01-08
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: If we say that two days before a massive amount of shock is the main ship, then the phenomenon of capital flight in today's even more obvious; In addition to morning performance of the sector, slightly outside the disk almost do not see any hot spots, on the contrary of funds flee act is strong, does it mean so Quotes stop it?
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) public face is suddenly one of doubt: I remember a few days ago, sang many arguments could be heard everywhere, what 2245 points have been something in the bag, what the market can continue to rise into three or more; even worse that the market now or in the mountains at the foot of , as well as scoop Cheng poured cold water come out that there are people who got dizzy, ill-founded. The hot market and the media, optimism, people can hardly believe that the pace of the Urban will stop. However, after a few days after the massive shock to see more than one night, the whole argument seems to disappear, long active in the past suddenly became immobility.
Is it a listed company within a few days all the samples changed, can suddenly become the stock market bubble in Montreal, apparently these are not reasons. There is anecdotal evidence that the fund mandatory dividend is a major incentive for the main escape, but in fact only a part of the fund companies have cash deal with the pressure on dividends, a considerable part of the fund companies have already made a dividend capital reserve. More importantly, the new fund is no pressure on dividends, and normally there is no pressure on dividends, not to mention their access to higher cost is unlikely to Qi Li short.
2) have all sell into is the suspicions of the two: Today, two days before the disk and there is a quite different, that is, although in today's disk pull action, but in general be regarded as a unilateral decline; particularly in the afternoon, it kinds of situation is more pronounced. In addition, the process of decline had not occurred largely support the market behavior, including yesterday's strong stock account, the market did not appear hot. We can say that sell into the behavior is quite consistent. Of this phenomenon, because only two, the first is the market big bad, and the second is the main intention of working against. For the former, this column is currently unable to confirm; but that the more likely the latter column. First, there is capital flight is yes, but if the escape was so determined, it does not seem necessary, because the overall market is still supported by the value of the bubble are not many.
3) are still the backbone of the space down the blockade: the current round of large blue-chip Quotes to start one of the reasons is the stock index futures, a considerable part of the financial involvement of large blue-chip, both to grab a strategic bargaining chip to obtain the index right to speak, while sharing to the value of the benefits of regression Quotes. At present, the large blue-chip has entered a reasonable valuation of the region, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 weighted price-earnings ratio of 18 times; another 3 months after index futures launch, allowing agencies to continue to hold a strong impetus to the spot as soon as the introduction of stock index futures, holders of There can spot the body through the short index futures to lock in early gains. Combination of these two factors, large blue-chip has become a scarcity of safe assets, of which the funds should not be stationed in a large-scale cash out. In other words, a larger weight room for a large blue-chip drop much, they should be to stabilize the backbone of the broad market.
The foregoing analysis, the current market volatility should fall within the finishing stage, the adjustment of the space should be minimal.
B) the main financial Game:
3G and the large blue-chip two strong efforts to block callback great shows that institutions have fled the capital and hot money movements. However, because these two types of funding early intervention deep in the short term can not come out alive, in fact, there is no need to get out, because the current market is still a valuable foundation for a good long-term trend is not changed. From today's disk of view, Kongfangliliang the release of more adequate in the short term there is a rebound requirements. Note that part of the mainstream funds transfer positions fleeing behavior, the pressure on the market stage.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
As the market turmoil plays out, there a certain degree of differentiation of patterns, suggested that goal orientation part of the adjustment in place of the large blue-chip, or the texture of a good technology stocks. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: is expected next Monday to test a low volatility is expected to rebound.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: anticipated the tech sector, the Department of Banking plate still has better performance of the stocks.
Market Risk points: short-term oversold bounce or too large stocks, pay attention to rallies out, bearing in mind the risk of market fragmentation.
Protection measures: It is recommended rallies to trim, proper control positions.
