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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Investment: refers to well-designed in accordance with prior expectations for profit rates have a positive game plan;
Gambling: refers to the lack of rigorous pre-design has a positive expectation game plan profit rates, and in the interests of pure heart-driven approach under the bet.
Here, I re-introduce the distinction between investment and speculation:
Investment and speculation in the moral judgments on the difference between good and evil does not exist, but mainly on the length of time holding the two. If the long-term operation of the main Yaomu way they are called investment; Yao Mu, if short-term operation of the main places they are called speculative.
The essential difference between investment and gambling: it is based on an expected profit rate has a positive game plan or the operating system, if investors have such a plan, casinos can also be a real sense of investment in places (there have been similar cases).
I think that the speculative market is the world's most perfectly in line with the principle of fair competition in the market, there are no birth, family background, education, and interpersonal relationships in society are complex issues, as long as you own through our efforts will certainly pay off.
First to have a correct assessment of their own, speculative markets, most investors have a misunderstanding, that is equivalent to the experience of winning winning capabilities. Investor's success in other areas does not prove the same in the investment field will be successful. After the first of China's reform and opening up rich people, for example, a considerable number of winners is owned by its competitors do not have access to certain advantages and the first pot of gold. However, in the investment market, to help them succeed in those areas the conditions are in the investment market does not work and even counter-productive. As the saying goes No pain no gain, in any field should make efforts to be successful there is no opportunistic short cut, especially in speculative market.
Second, to achieve self-discipline and patience in the face of ever-changing market, we should always stick to their investment principles. Before making a transaction must first do their homework (see my "how to select the chart market timing," a paper on long-term and short-term charts, as well as how to analyze the benefits of trade advantage of the opportunity), so that to know ourselves in order to Baizhanbudai. Good trading plan should not be easily changed, for investors, and each time failed consistent with its trading scheme (loss) of investment is right; each deviation from its trading scheme is successful (profitable) investment are wrong. Patience is the patience to have the quality of lonely hearts, although the market opportunities for profit every day, but the real profit of 60% or more the opportunity is not a lot of the price. For example: 100 points each day fluctuations in the market, net of bank charges 20:00; you can not buy a day, minimum selling a day, the highest (if there is also luck, but we can not each have such good luck), and then planing to go 20 points (up and down a 10-point), if you can profit of 60 points every day, you are already a master of. My operational experience is that most of the time stare disk is looking for and waiting for the emergence of market timing, the event of an immediate transaction. My own motto is: opportunity is not out chasing other out.
Third with a keen sense of observation and forecasting ability (sixth sense), a large number of market information can smell the market ahead of the main trends in the forthcoming reversal signal, and to take action before a change in the Quotes. This capacity comes mainly from investors in the long-term investment practice, constantly sum up experience from the successes and failures. As for the sixth sense I think so, if there is no such inspiration, investors hard to reach a certain level after a big leap.
Finally, to overcome the four main weaknesses of human nature: "lazy" "greedy," "Wishes" and "fear." Sloth: There is no free lunch (if there must be leftover meal), any vocational skills needed to master a long learning time, speculation in the industry is the hardest one of which Moreover, speculative markets, the factors that affect the all-encompassing, so it can we need to keep learning. Corruption: Transition speculation or to make a little money to eventually lead to lose a lot of money. May wish to: wishful thinking, only willing to listen to the news to their advantage, or lose to continue to lose do not recognize overweight. Fear: fear of successful investors (in awe) market, but are not afraid of (self) itself. The failure of investors to the contrary, they have no fear of the market (chase sell into), but you are afraid in their own markets, when a rose has another nearly missed the bus high, a continuous fall in the market near the lows, when fear of their own race is not out.
According to legend, martial arts have the "canon" is any person who Xuewu lifelong pursuit, a kind of speculative industry technical analysis method is investor lifelong pursuit. Have "canon" does not necessarily be able to excel at martial arts masterpiece, master technical analysis methods may not be able to beat the market. In fact, the highest state of martial arts and speculation is not a masterpiece martial arts and beat the market, but how to challenge themselves. Martial arts can be learned first, the market is also can be overcome, and the most difficult is how to overcome their "lazy," "greedy," "resentment", "fear." Only people who can overcome the words Swordsman, with the market.
Introduce the trading rules and how to choose the method entry points, there are many, such as Gann's 12 trading rules; John Murphy in the futures market technical analysis trading strategy, and so a book is very classic article, interested Friends may wish to refer to learn. Here I will briefly introduce my operational experience as well as how to find, to determine the market price (please refer to my book, "how to look at fundamental analysis and technical analysis of the distinction between" one enclosure).
The saying goes, all roads lead to Rome, in the speculative market in the right investment approach is not unique, but the correct way of thinking is unique. First of all to master the correct way of thinking, including the proper analysis methods (such as: reverse form of the fundamental difference with the continuous form); the correct transaction methods (such as: homeopathic transactions), as well as proper financial management.
Speculative market is a high-risk markets, fund management, the most important. Fund management is a systematic project that contains all the analysis methods and techniques, content, and on this basis, reasonable arrangements for the proper use of funds process. Fund management do a good job, even if analysis, and trading have taken place in a serious error does not appear too much risk; the other hand, if fund management is not good, even if the analysis of the accuracy of transaction prices in good times will eventually lead to a loss of previously All the profits of all the taking.
The principal amount of 100,000 U.S. dollars
The percentage of the remaining principal amount of the loss (10000) the need to recover the principal amount (million) profit percentage
10% 9 1 10%
20% 8 2 25%
30% 73 42.9%
40% 64 66.7%
50% 5 5 100%
60% 4 6 150%
70% 3 7 233%
80% 2 8 400%
90% 19900%
95% 0.5 9.5 1900%
Now I will brief analysis of support levels, resistance methods and trading skills (Note: the basics of technical analysis methods see John Murphy wrote, "futures markets, technical analysis," Elliott's "wave theory" and Treats in the book, "Gann theory").
(A) support and resistance
To find more accurate support and resistance, it is necessary from the medium to long term charts (day chart, weekly plans, monthly plans) to start. (1) finding transaction-intensive areas, that is, consolidation range. This interval is the maximum volume and long-short market, buyers and sellers the greatest differences between the two places (refer to the "four-dimensional Space," a book). Market liquidity, the degree of difficulty is based on market operations and the value judgments of difficulty is inversely proportional relationship, the easier the more transaction-intensive, market liquidity, the higher the value the more difficult to determine; On the contrary the more difficult the more sparsely traded, market liquidity, the The lower the value judgments easier. Once the break (below) transaction-intensive areas, short (long) multi-stop disk + new (new space) + more than the old (old space) coded buying (selling) will cause the exchange rate to accelerate progress. In the following callback (bounce) in this price is a very strong support level (resistance). Support level (resistance) into a degree with a major price break from the road after the length of time proportional to the proximity of the road price. (2) to find the pre-head or bottom. The market early in the first (bottom) is a round rebound (callback) of the resistance (support). Resistance (support) into the degree and the current round of a major rebound (callback) The required length of time is proportional to the relationship between high and low price. (3) to find symmetric relation. The market in the early rising (down) process did not encounter any stop (support), in turn, in the fall (rise) is certainly not encounter support (block). And the dollar rose in the early (down) the number of days during the run, in the down (up), the same number of days run. (4) The place to find the golden section. Fibonacci sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144, etc. To infinity) is the wave theory, based on Golden Section (0.382,0.5,0.618, etc.) in nature be seen in (a friend may be interested in-depth studies). Select a trend of high and low points in gold division, support level (resistance) in Golden near (the use of Golden Section in the futures market is higher than the accuracy of the foreign exchange market).
(B) transaction techniques
(1) on-line transaction-intensive areas (offline) short selling (buying), break (below) after the stop and the chase to buy (chasing sell).
(2) In the pre-head (bottom) throw (the bid), break (below) after the stop and the chase to buy (sell to recover).
(3) Calculations up (down) trend of the golden price, in the callback (bounce) in the process of 0.5 and 0.618 to buy (sell).
(4) integer price above (below) to buy (sell).
In short, how to find support and resistance, as well as operation of the trading techniques are difficult to explain one or two sentences, which depends mainly on the long-term deal from the process of absorption of summing up experiences and cultivate the market feel.
