Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-10-21
The layout of the fourth quarter of
External shocks caused by the excess liquidity was through a very long period of time in the future China's capital market, the key issues. So far, the central government promulgated a series of regulatory policies have failed to effectively address the root causes of excess liquidity.
Appreciation of the renminbi is no longer a simple trade friction, but to solve the domestic excess liquidity important means. Effective exchange rate data show that the pressure of RMB appreciation not only not weakened, but further enhanced, which makes consumer services, corporate earnings and valuation will continue to remain optimistic, but the real test of the domestic manufacturing enterprises only just begun.
The short-term commodity price adjustment is expected to benefit petrochemical, aviation and other industries, to support with supply and demand gap in oil and base metals stocks are still holding value judgments. The maintenance of a cyclical industry, the expected recovery in the second half of stage, but still not enough to form a long-term trends. To maintain 2006 profit growth of listed companies, 15% of the expected market valuation and the balance will be able to continue, but the increase in consumption of the supply of liquidity to face threats. Stock index futures is expected to reduce the pressure on large capitalization stocks IPO at the same time increasing the impact of lifting the ban of non-tradable shares and the birth of a new one the size of Quotes to start the second quarter of 2007, market pressure will gradually appear.
RMB appreciation and the global economic slowdown are the two main investment theme. Suggested the use of market shocks in the fourth quarter to conduct rational distribution, focusing on configuration telecommunications, aviation, media, finance, commerce, tourism, real estate, energy and other industries, and has the assets into the subject company.
Both offensive and defensive shares a concern about the highway. Institution believes that taking into account the heavy charges, asset injection, cost reduction and many other positive factors, together, the company quarterly results will be increased by 3 125%, thus a strong impetus to stock up, space for at least 50%.
