Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-20
"5.1" after the holiday, A-share market into the bull's point of view for many investors to accept the market enthusiasm. The number of accounts from the new situation can be seen in April of the new account has been the high point in 2004, close. The May 11 one-day of new account number is 3.4 million, according to this speed, though in May the existence of a long holiday, but the new account would also be beyond the 40000, even to 50000 about. In the external funding, driven mad, we expect the market median line there is room to rise, expected 1783 points will be challenged.
Pay close attention to 5.19
As the volume continued to hit new highs, the market traded more than 4% in Japan, which indicates that market psychology has become impetuous, while long-short differences also growing. From the new account position, at present, has at its height position, the pace of increase has surpassed the February 2004 high point, once the additional funding it difficult to maintain, the market is unavoidable that there will be adjustments.
From the time-cycle perspective, May 19 is an important point in time. First, this is 1999, 5.19 Quotes 7 years since the first 95 years, the first since the 5.17 Quotes for 11 years. Second, it is 2245 points, trading since the 60th month, is a 998-point since the first 49 trading weeks. Or 1783 points, trading since the 25th month. So much time in the cycle focal point, the probability of the market adjustment should be relatively high.
As the market is already taking heat, the overall strong market has cooled completely in the short term, but also the medium term, we believe that market is still cause for optimism, the operation should be based on individual stocks instead. From this month, since the characteristic index situation, the trend apparent in small-cap stocks to outperform stocks, while growth stocks or value stocks and also beyond the other units, the development prospects of listed companies that tap the aggressive sexual behavior is the inevitable bull market characteristics, investors are also in operation of listed companies should focus on development prospects in the next few years, the development of large space, investors, listed companies will lead to more lucrative returns.
Situation from the industry, in more than 50 two industries, aerospace and defense, trade, media and other industries strong, including aerospace and defense is the year we have been reminded investors to focus on industry. Telecommunications services, and real estate performance is weak, investors should pay particular attention to the real estate industry risk. Since the state price of the highly concerned about the regulation and control may be increased, the real estate in the next 1-2 years, full of the development prospects of greater uncertainty. From the reaction of the real estate stocks on the regulation of view, the other by the state regulation and control and will be subject to state-controlled industries have great prospects for the development of uncertainty, investors should pay attention to one of the investment risk.
Potential Industry Analysis
Aerospace and defense. Economic development needs a stable environment, China has always attached considerable importance to the national defense, "two sessions" to disclose the information also shows that China will continue to strengthen the national defense force, we believe that the next few years defense Listed companies should have a relatively good development.
Transmission and distribution equipment. Eleventh Five-year plan, power grid investment of over 11,000 billion yuan, an increase of 120% during the period compared with 15 over network equipment building to develop the great potential. Kim Shin-Transmission & Distribution Sector Index shifted up, there should be continued to rise potential.
Hotel dining. China's sustained economic development and people's consumption steady growth, while an upgrade requirements, growth in demand for hotel and catering, hotel and catering industry will develop steadily.
Supermarket retailing. GDP, the troika, the fixed asset investment and exports have a lot of uncertainty, but residents will be steady growth rate of total spending increase, the supermarket retail industry will be steady and rapid development, the industry index rising rapidly, cause for concern.
Bank. In economic development, the inevitable need for financial support of the industry. In recent years, steady and fast growth in the banking sector, performance-year growth remained at around 30% expected the next few years will continue to maintain the momentum of steady growth, but also the People's Bank adjust the loan interest rates, the deposit-loan spread widened, the banks will further increase the performance, the banks the industry is worth in the long-term bullish.
Afternoon operation strategy
A share has surpassed the rate of new accounts in early 2004, daily trading volume has surged to new heights, once the rate of decline in foreign capital entering the market will adjust the situation there. The mid-May is the focal point for many time periods, the market need to focus on the possibility of adjustments. But generally speaking, the market has entered a bull market, the median line there is up space, market activity will not be dwindling fast. Operation proposed to individual stocks as the most important, focusing on the small-cap growth stocks. Situation from the industry, development prospects, consumer upgrades will benefit the industry deserves attention, such as defense aviation, retail, catering and tourism, and real estate influenced by the macro-control of industry should be treated with caution.
