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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
(A) on the 10th moving average method proposed by
I have been in the Stock Market Bosha years. Heart has feelings. Hereby make a few comments, for your information.
1. Less involved in the stock market of small investors
I know that friends and kicking the tires every time the stock market, always advise them not to set foot. Without him, because China's small shareholders it is all too easy to lose the money. Found to have 100 percent every time I need to ship when there are still many small shareholders in the pick-up. These people must have become stuck with a family. Professional and amateur investors for speculators in terms of both psychological and technical comparison of different
2. Do not believe stock analysts
I believe that many friends all agree, followed by stock analysts Zuo Gupiao impossible to make money. I never write stock analysts, mostly people do not want to lie and waste of time, the author of some of my friends and colleagues to do stock analysts, and some are quite famous. According to my observation, are always the more "rallies shipping, bargain-hunting" or similar nonsense. A truly rare quality for speculators. Occasionally a few master again mostly in stocks on behalf of large organizations. Due to conflicts of interest, a critical moment it is difficult to expect them to give you speak the truth.
3. The current policy
On the best way: wash her hands for some time, and to do more points down to business and the stock market is not the only avenues. To wait for the next wave of bull market. This is the highest realm of speculation hand.
The best way: Lapping technology only did intermediate Quotes.
The worst: bargain-hunting ground, making a rebound.
4. A few stocks tips.
Fundamentals and technical indicators.
In China, mainly technical, fundamental supplement.
Fundamentals, the more macro (economic situation), and less micro-(and dividends, individual notice).
Technically, a little more classical indicators (KD, MACD, MA), and less modern indicators (wave theory, four space).
5. Easy to operate method
Some people may think that I said too broad, the actual manipulator is not much help. For those entering the city fighting and repeated sets of shareholders and the old investors, I recommend one of the most simple principles of trading.
The average closing price in 10 days online, before they can consider buying the stock. Average share price fell below 10 days, you must sell the stock.
Some people will think this is too simple. The challenge is you do not do it. You do not believe you look at its own shares over the past year trading history, if that time you bought the stock will be caught, Jiucheng 9 you are under 10 days average bought. If that time you just sell the stock on the Caikong, Jiucheng 9 you are an average of 10 days to sell online. If you insist on that principle, it will certainly earn less lose.
(B) on the 10th moving average method Xiangjie
On the 10th moving average formulation is: the average closing price in the 10 days before they can consider buying stocks online. In the 10 days average closing price, must sell the stock.
For example you are now short positions, ready to buy shares, you must wait until the stock price moving average rose to on the 10th before we can consider buying the stock. Some investors immediately asked certain shares are listed on on the 10th moving average, can buy. Still others have asked the highest price the stock is usually on the 10th moving average, buying it not to trap?
Please note that I did not say in moving average purchase will make on the 10th. In fact, this is just one of the prerequisites. The other implied condition is that the unit should have more room for growth. In my view there are at least 20% of the profit margins Caixing. But whether the increase in space is probably the most difficult question to answer. There are many factors involved, such as: how the general trend (bull, bear market, adjusting the city), whether the subject matter, making power, on the 10th from the moving average, the distance between the historical lock-bit ... and in different stages of the weighting of various factors different. Difficult to enumerate here.
The final decision will depend on your personal experience and feelings, and sometimes even to rely on luck. The decision to buy should be under the most difficult. This is what I say to be careful to buy. In fact there is no buy is a sure win, only a small chance of winning.
Once bought, the situation is simple (in fact, is not easy to do). If you buy right, and the Unit continued to rise, you wait until the last unit on the 10th below average before profit-taking, or have been held. This is what I said had to be defensible to buy right. If you bought the wrong, the unit just a few days on the below average on the 10th, you have to sell at a loss, or liquidation closed. That is sold must be resolute. In fact, this simple average for France on the 10th contains a lot of behind the stock market know-how.
(C) on the 10th moving average method based on
The theoretical basis on the 10th moving average method, or why a larger chance of winning on the 10th moving average method?
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Analyze why buy in on the 10th and above average. You can look at, a stock rise and fall process, obviously the process of buying the stock up, only thing is wrong (the highest point), in the process of buying the stock fell, only one point is the (lowest point in ). Therefore, we believe that the process of buying the stock rose a larger chance of winning (assuming 90%), while the average stock on the 10th the technical meaning of the Unit are on the rise, so buying the stock on the 10th moving average chance of winning a larger (90%), The shareholders, if any, on the 10th, as professionals in the average of the winning bid under the surface of small (10%), at least for the short-term probability of a great quilt.
Why should we wait until further analysis of the stock price fell below average on the 10th before we sell? Most investors see the hands of a stock is up 20% -30%, or even only 10%, ranging from a quick throw-breaking on the 10th moving average. If you look at trap, that is broken on the 10th moving average can not bear to sell at a loss indemnities. MA law practice and on the 10th just the opposite.
We might compare, assuming that we have to buy a ten-dollar stock, there are two possible scenarios, one stock continued to rise until the average 15 yuan on the 10th after breaking down; second is to continue to fall to 5 yuan, two kinds of assume that the probability of a considerable (if you buy on the 10th rise in average probability of the next lower). Order on the 10th moving average method, the situation is bad when a Powei to sell, I spent a little (such as 1 million), a good time, I earn 5 yuan, in general I make a 4 yuan per share; their way to do that, the situation is not good lose 5 yuan, the situation is good and they can only make 2 yuan, together also lose 3 yuan. On the 10th moving average method is clearly superior. This is in fact stressed the need to know how to control risk, once you buy should just make do, to make up for buying the wrong may be incurred once the losses. This two-step together, 10 days average method is even greater chance of winning.
Some investors think the stock is cheap when the stock fell on the buy, a rise in profits also brings a little worried that they fall further back, wanted to sell, to trap again and again refused to sell it will surely lose more than I lose, this is the psychological weaknesses. Reason, many people know, but a lot of people that can not do. In addition to the necessary theoretical training, cultivates the heart is also very important. To make big money can ignore the short-money gains and losses, a rational analysis, sense of normalcy to see the city is this not the pursuit of the highest realm of speculation hand do?
(D) on the 10th MA Theory of Law and the fish
Many friends, after reading my article asked, If you press on the 10th averaging method that must wait until the stock price moving average rose to on the 10th before we buy, often have lost up from the low profitability of this paragraph; in below average on the 10th after the sale, has lost the highest price down from a profit this paragraph. In fact, this reflects the well-known the fish is the essence of the theory.
Namely, the reserve price in the stock area, the situation is not clear, at higher risk. Belongs to the head, good bite. Or Bibi is better. Up to the discovery of a clear rise in the stock into the stage, the risk of smaller, larger chance of winning (the fish) before buying. In the later rise in stock prices, though still may have room to rise, but the risk has been higher, as fish tail, it should not intervene. Many people are aware of this truth, we must fish body.
But how do know which is the fish? 10 days moving average method is to provide an objective method to determine the fish. When the stock price on the 10th from the bottom up through the moving average, we can assume that the head has now followed is that the fish must have is only the size of the fish, so you can buy. Shares on the 10th moving average continued to rise, the fish are constantly displayed, but failed to see the fish of all, of course, not for sale. Until the stock finally fell below average on the 10th, we can have is that the fish tail. That one is the fish is very clear, and do so without hesitation take the truth.
There is a wrong practice is: when in the hands of the stock up after a while, I feel it is almost sold the stock, saying that to let others eat fish tail behind the bar. But you said it was up 30% of the counted the fish, in case it has doubled the last rose? You said the fish count doubled up, then if the last rose tenfold? Some of the Hong Kong red chips has recently risen to 10 times, so you do not necessarily abide by the final. In fact, the idea is very simple, the fish must wait until the fish tail exposed to be confirmed! See Zuo Gupiao, as long as it adhered to the correct principle, not required to have a strong imagination, like the huge profits.
(E) on the 10th moving average method and long-short-term investments
On the 10th moving average method is an implication of the sound does not advocate short-term speculation.
Generally, there are three kinds of difference to do a short scenarios:
First, the course of a normal bull market correction Zhang Sheng, which is overbought when the indicator when you sell, buy later correction. This will not Caikong greater risk because the bull market of the Zhang Sheng sometimes surprisingly fierce. Overbought and then super-bought is nothing new. Even if you out of the way, when the goods which saved to have a problem. The adjustment and intensity of each can not be the same, difficult to grasp.
Second, the decline during the bear market rally. That is, when the indicators of oversold when buying, selling a rebound later. This situation is similar to the kind. Even if the bounce up, the difference is limited. Under adverse operational risks are great, like a blade licking the blood. Does not decisively settle the case, the little profit might be lost even quilt, suffered heavy losses. The average law on the 10th is not moved by short-term fluctuations in order to maintaining the status quo.
Third, a balanced long-short period of adjustment for volatility. Rallies shipping bargain hunting. But once the long-short winner, the formation of a breakthrough. The result is not Caikong is stuck. Law on the 10th moving average processing is in this region after the stock fell below average on the 10th, first to sell out to say, wait and see. Break down if it was, of course, you fortunate escape. If confirmed break up, you can still catch up again. The loss is only a small difference.
In general, the more short-term stock market movements, the more difficult to master. Short-term to do the more chances of mistakes. For a little bit of petty profits, to take big risks is not worth it. Might as well do a foothold in the long-term trend. Some people have to ask whether the long-term investment holdings in one or two years be considered? Definitely not. On the 10th moving average method to focus on differences rather than holding a large length of time. But generally speaking, stock prices rose sharply changing hands take longer to disk. In fact in the highly speculative market, a higher risk of long holdings. I ask if they can earn several times a few days, so why have to wait eight to ten years then?
(F) MA law and stay out of trouble on the 10th
How to stay out of trouble in the stock market is a compulsory subject for each client.
Stock market (especially China's stock market) is full of opportunities, but also full of pitfalls. A more reasonable market, its probability should be evenly divided. How to make money in the stock market, in fact, due to how to seize the opportunities and avoiding pitfalls. 10 days on average-line method is providing a means to avoid danger.
Let me start to avoid fierce. In a bear market phase, the market decline may presented in different ways, Pan Die, plummeted, rebound, fall any further. Experience a little shallow investors see a rebound on the thought that bottomed out on the chase, did not intend to buy the culmination of the rally has become a victim of the next wave of fall; clever I must take some of indicators of oversold bounce when you do buy, but these differences generally small, the risk is high. Moving average method to use on the 10th, only one on the 10th moving average before they can considering the purchase of more than 80% can be filtered out to buy the risk of such errors, most of the remaining 20% can be filtered out other factors, a comprehensive, even if bought wrong, you The second principle can also be used in time stop. Therefore, this method may be possible to avoid the risk. It is no exaggeration to say that if you strictly on the 10th moving average method, a stock market crash anywhere in the world you are not on the share.
Besides trend Kyrgyzstan. Once you buy the stock, on the Kyrgyzstan boat, it can not easily let go. Some investors see the stock up for a while, or to the psychological price on the throw, as well as the shareholders in the process of shocks increases adjusting, Bachibuzhu was Xipan washed out, while the average on the 10th to provide an objective way to see the city so that we less susceptible to the impact of market sentiment is not broken line is not to sell, are not easily washed out. Of course, you want to ride more stable, you can choose the antenna 15,30 and so on, but lose some more profit at the top only. 10 days is actually a trade-off result.
Looking at China's stock market, due to the deep-seated institutional problems, most of the stock is hard to say there is investment value, and thus lack of long-term investment funds, but should be noted that the external short-term hot money is very abundant, resulting in the non-cow that is the stock market bears, do not peaked, the next not bottomed. China's stock but also has a high speculative value. In this context, on the 10th line method to earn both a high speculative price difference, but also to avoid a high degree of speculative risk. Belongs to a general shareholders biased for sound investment strategy.
Of course, I can not deny the shareholders according to their own situation and take a more aggressive strategy, they are willing to take greater risks, earn more money if it is reasonable. Otherwise, if everyone on the 10th by law to do average, the stock fell below a moving average on the 10th there will be no deal, and how can we ship it? Our brokers, exchanges, listed companies also depend on who is going to support it? This is the market lies its charm.
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(Vii) on the 10th moving average method and Technical Analysis
The average line method on the 10th is actually the main emphasis on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, supplemented by.
First, we might look at how the stock form? A simple fact is that the stock price is trading behavior of investors, the sum of the decision. The amount of time to buy = sell volume, stock prices remained relatively unchanged; to buy the amount of "selling volume, stock prices upward; to buy the amount of" selling volume, stock prices down. The question then boils down to how an investor to buy or sell decisions. First, only stock investors to analyze the underlying factors. Microscopic, such as earnings per share, net assets, earnings, profit forecasts and so on, a macro, such as industry analysis, economic environment, the market environment. Some of these factors is conducive to stock up, and some are not conducive to stock up. Our analysis is based on the circumstances virtually to these positive and negative elements into the psychological trade-off weight. Give a simple example, you may buy a bull market in the inferior stock, so they sell a big bear market in high-quality stocks. This is because you are weighing the market environment is far greater than the proportion of the trade-off factors, the proportion of micro-stocks. A quantitative expression is:
Trading behavior of stock prices = = (I * the basic factors of psychological balance the proportion of I)
(Vii) on the 10th moving average method and Technical Analysis
The average line method on the 10th is actually the main emphasis on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, supplemented by.
First, we might look at how the stock form? A simple fact is that the stock price is trading behavior of investors, the sum of the decision. The amount of time to buy = sell volume, stock prices remained relatively unchanged; to buy the amount of "selling volume, stock prices upward; to buy the amount of" selling volume, stock prices down. The question then boils down to how an investor to buy or sell decisions. First, only stock investors to analyze the underlying factors. Microscopic, such as earnings per share, net assets, earnings, profit forecasts and so on, a macro, such as industry analysis, economic environment, the market environment. Some of these factors is conducive to stock up, and some are not conducive to stock up. Our analysis is based on the circumstances virtually to these positive and negative elements into the psychological trade-off weight. Give a simple example, you may buy a bull market in the inferior stock, so they sell a big bear market in high-quality stocks. This is because you are weighing the market environment is far greater than the proportion of the trade-off factors, the proportion of micro-stocks. A quantitative expression is:
Trading behavior of stock prices = = (I * the basic factors of psychological balance the proportion of I)
A fundamental analyst is likely to be through the above method to determine the price trend. But its shortcomings are obvious.
1. To master at a certain time, all the basic factors is very difficult. Give an example. Makers in the domestic stock investors may be more concerned about the underlying factor. Some investors have heard of a stock with a dealer to look inside to kill, thinking that the dealer will be able to follow the money. In fact, the size of the dealer also points, there are 50 million of the village, there are one or two hundred million of the village. Banker's style is different. Some to be eaten slowly slowly pull (slow collection of slow-pulled), and some fast food quick pull, and some light to eat does not pull. Some people will surely ask Is there light pull of the bookmakers do not eat? Tell you the truth that the writer's done such a village. Such Zhuang abroad have, for some time, stock prices strong, then a huge plate, and so on you and go in the near future, suddenly no indirect plate, stock prices fell. What it is an organization from the stock holdings of certain shares to buy finished naturally do not buy them. This situation is very difficult to outsiders actually known. Off than I previously did a stock up 70% before and after and lasted several months, the fundamentals do not change. So far, brokers say there are two, one acquisition, and second, the company issued warrants, so pull stock. But they were not confirmed. The speculation in the country were much more vigorous, the dealer can easily create a theme of an ulterior motive. Even there is no subject matter, is also engaged in a Fried theme, because the dealer is itself a subject! Obviously if you insisted to find a clear support for the fundamental factors in stock price rises to buy stocks, you are likely to miss a lot of money-making opportunity.
2. Even if you are in a period of time to master all the factors, but these factors are constantly changing, you can not fully grasp the change. For instance, your stock's earnings according to a judge it should be the value of 10-15 million, but recently it has risen to 25. One possible factor is the company's profits increased considerably.
3. Even if you can master the basic elements of any period of time, you can not fully grasp the various factors on the psychological weight of the investing public, as this weight over time, location varies, for example in the country for some time, "Pudong concept stocks" popular while the recently become a "blue chip stocks" of the world. Another example is a recent focus of the international market, Asian stock markets, then the Hong Kong stock market movements on the world of psychological weight of equity investors is clearly much greater than in the past. So you can easily understand why the same fundamentals of any under all there is always more than the short side differences, it is so long-short pairs of the same basic elements the parties have different psychological weight. The technical analysis does not proceed from the analysis of fundamental factors, but avoiding the relatively simple analysis of stock price movement itself. In fact, it does not analyze the internal factors stock price movement, it is just a description of stock price movement only. As opposed to fundamental factors, psychological factors, and many other aspects of uncertainty, the stock price movement itself is very clear, and can be clearly shown on the chart. All the combined result of internal factors will eventually be reflected from the share price. Technical analysis has actually admitted has its own stock at any given time must be reasonable, if you think a stock price of the unreasonable, it is possible that you overlooked some basic factors.
Of course, I am not here to a complete denial of the basic analysis, I only said that fundamental analysis can not serve as the sale of the first diagnostic tools. In a technical-based premise, the basic analysis can be a good auxiliary tool. Or you can insert a formula in front of technical factors, and assigned at any time with the greatest weight, so that can also technical analysis and fundamental analysis of organic combination.
(Viii) on the 10th moving average method and the flow of
Many people know that the flow of theory. It emphasizes Zuo Gupiao can not be too subjective, to obey the general trend direction. And on the 10th moving average method is a manifestation of the flow of spirit. When the share price on the 10th, under average, you can think that our city is down and can not buy, but also sell. When the stock on the 10th moving average, we can think that our city is up, you can buy.
Many people say I look at the chart, but also to understand technical analysis, are technical faction. Cooked I do not know the theory of the use of technology there are two kinds of usage of homeopathic and contrarian. Take the 10 days average for this indicator, a usage as on the 10th moving average method, is a homeopathic action. Another typical usage (you can at any one technical analysis to find the book) is on the 10th when the stock price well below average (eg 10%) can be bought, when the stock price much higher than that on the 10th moving average (eg 10%) can sell this overbought oversold so obvious ways are gone against the tide into it.
As another example, the trend-line theory. I use it when the stock price in a rising orbit, you can consider taking an upward trend in stocks; when stock prices decline in orbit in a run-time can be considered stock take a downward trend. This theory can be used as a method of analyzing the general trend. But I never used to make specific trading basis. But I know some of the chart were those who carry with them like some historical charts, in the above draw on a variety of rail, the next track, support lines, resistance lines, and tend to fall back to support line when the stock price to buy, up When the resistance to sell, in fact, this has unwittingly fallen into the scope of the operation times of adversity.
In fact this method of death is mechanical Cutout table, a bit obsessed. I will not speak at all root for each high and low points to link support lines, how the reliability of resistance, even if he has a technical sense, in each particular case, its role is also very difficult to estimate how much. In fact, in the broad market up, any one technology, resistance will eventually be broken; in large city down, any one technical support will be broken, the end bit.
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