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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Bandung Guangzhou
Abstract: This column believes that this increase margin deposits, the main purpose of the rate of recovery is to advance to excess liquidity in the market, while in this report, the central bank's monetary policy can also be a glimpse of the attitude of the management of a further shift in the stock market. Also in this section that from the current situation, there is the possibility of continued rate hikes.
PBC 5, decided January 15, 2007, the raised deposit-taking financial institutions, the RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2006, China has continuously four times so far raised the deposit reserve ratio, the cumulative rise 2 percentage points, the deposit reserve ratio by 9.5% in the implementation of standards.
This column believes that this increase margin deposits, the main purpose of the rate of recovery is to advance to excess liquidity in the market, while in this report, the central bank's monetary policy can also be a glimpse of the attitude of the management of a further shift in the stock market. Also in this section that from the current situation, there is the possibility of continued rate hikes.
In the central bank to control market liquidity as the main policy objectives against the backdrop of real estate financial stocks may be subject to repression. In the long run, monetary liquidity off the market to promote explosive upside of the stock market may be changed under certain conditions in order to drive the market up industrial restructuring, the market layout.
First, the main purpose of raising margin rates
This column believes that this is the main purpose of raising the interest rate margin recovery of excess liquidity in the market. In the current trade surplus is growing, continuing excess liquidity in the context, while a quarter is normally the peak credit, sufficient funds to enable banks to lend a strong impulse. Coupled with the ICBC, BOC and other banks after the completion of listing and financing, funded and have strong lending capacity, to raise the deposit market, the central bank deposit rate is the inevitable choice of monetary policy. Otherwise, it finally was brought under control the excessive growth of money supply is bound to revive.
Analysts expect the central bank will continue to control the mobility of this important task, but raising the deposit reserve ratio or distribution of quantitative methods such as directional bills will become routine tools. This column that raising the interest rate is the ability to fundamentally solve the problem.
Second, management's attitude to further change in the stock market
In addition, it is worth our attention is that in this the central bank's monetary policy report, have repeatedly pointed out in supporting the expansion of the proportion of direct financing, and no words should be said that this means that the central bank support for the red-hot stock market has been transferred but with caution.
Last year, three times the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio. But the central bank had three times the adjustment of policies issued notice, in the liquidity growth rate far exceeded the circumstances beyond the control is still, without exception, made it clear that the future will firm "supports the expansion of direct financing." However, in this adjustment to the notice issued, this sentence does not appear. This means that one of the interesting, to a certain extent, further reflected in the management's change of attitude on the current stock market, from support to care. And we have reason to believe that if the market bubble in the further accumulation of this cautious attitude will be further uncertainty and eventually into the management of more stringent measures.
3, may continue to raise interest rates
In addition, we believe that this increase reflects the central bank deposit rate of recovery of the market a clear attitude of excess liquidity. The trade surplus is difficult to reverse the high short-term circumstances, the excess liquidity will be destined to be struggling so that the central bank. In 2007 the central bank had to face another challenge is the rise of inflation, while interest rates would act as the main tool against inflation. This column that, in the currency appreciation caused by excessive growth of monetary liquidity and price upward, under the dual pressures, the central bank is likely to continue after the raising margin rate hike.
Credit Suisse managing director, Asia, are expected to Dong Tao, chief economist at the latest within six months the central bank will raise deposit reserve ratio by 1-2 times, and there are 1-2 times the rate hikes may be.
4, in controlling the liquidity of the currency appreciation against the background of the impact on the market
This column that in the context of currency appreciation, the central bank to control liquidity as the main objective of monetary policy will likely change the funds drive the market crazy up too well-off pattern, in the long run may be translated into upward adjustment of industrial structure to promote the market situation.
1, the market liquidity does not appear excessive proliferation of
If the liquidity of money growth are properly controlled, then the market will not be driven by the proliferation of mad money up, asset bubble will not reach out of hand. This thesis for the financial and real estate stocks, particularly effective.
2, upgrading the industrial structure will gradually become the market's long-term driving force
The greatest impact the future of currency appreciation will be driven by its industrial structure under pressure to upgrade - including domestic demand-based industry development and export-oriented industrial upgrading, which could be a major market driver in 2007.
