Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-06-06
Investment Points
2006 Yunlvgufen to achieve earnings per share 0.57, an increase of 119%, aluminum, and alumina prices remain high 06 runs in the second half of the significant downturn in the performance of the clouds, aluminum driven by substantial growth factors; sub-quarter view, four-quarter aluminum cloud to achieve earnings per share 0.31 yuan, lower than our previous forecast of 0.36.
With the average price of spot alumina and aluminum prices remain high down to run, the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is entering a cyclical profitable harvest. Recent domestic spot alumina prices have rebounded sharply, we believe that because of: high profits in the domestic electrolytic aluminum production in the rapid release of the formation of strong demand for alumina; the stocking effect of aluminum before the Spring Festival and domestic transport capacity of the tension; as well as government New alumina project to domestic restrictions on efforts to strengthen the implementation of corrective measures.
However, large quantities of alumina production capacity under construction, still exists and the gradual release of expectation, the recent rebound in the price of alumina capacity will increase and continue to be restrained, high alumina prices have been given to domestic non-Chalco alumina business good profitability. We will be in 2007 raised the average price of domestic alumina 3,000 yuan / ton, to reflect changes in the fundamentals of alumina.
We continue to maintain the pre-2007 aluminum price forecast, China's rapid growth in output and Europe and the United States cut the high cost of checks and balances, the 2007 International aluminum will be maintained at 2600 U.S. dollars / ton on average high, the corresponding average price of domestic aluminum 19000 yuan / ton.
Currently Cloud plans to invest 800 thousand tons aluminum Wenshan alumina project in progress, but bauxite resources and aluminum industrial chain integration, the point of view, the relative domestic pure aluminum company, cloud aluminum can give a higher valuation .
According to the 2006 Annual Report cloud aluminum and alumina price forecasting adjustments, we will Yunlvgufen 2007 earnings per share down to 1.27 yuan, based on 14 times 2007P / E and the recent sharp rise cloud aluminum stock, we will Yunlvgufen investment rating from "buy" down to "overweight."
