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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Editor's Note: China is to launch a "full build rich" campaign. The center of the media campaign of the Fund. In the "National Foundation crazy Jie Wei," the wave, people choose this fund an either fund, whose sole criterion is performance. Little do they know this performance was the fund's investment team together to create, and its central figure is naturally the fund managers.
Ideas determine a way out, decided to head pocket. Today's "Fortune Global Forum", we have readers in particular the Fund to hold a grand launch of a fund manager who, his wise investment plans, a unique approach in fiscal management will surely be an inspiration to you.
2007: the risk of holding stocks is less than cash
What to buy when stocks than buying stocks is more important
Smart shoppers buy in the summer, autumn and winter clothing, at the end to buy computers and television, after New Year to buy luxury goods. Less of others when needed, you will need to buy something, the little wisdom also applies to buy stocks.
If this year's major changes to the market, while the adjusted stock price becomes reasonable, and remember to do that smart shoppers. If you can not determine when is the right time, it hard to judge what is right stocks. Right at the wrong time to buy stocks, the final results go wrong. Of course, if you can at the right time to buy the right stocks, congratulations!
Reasonable expectations of the judge than in the beginning is more important
I am not saying the 2007 harvest in 2006 would certainly be worse. However, as many investors thought to reflect the same in 2006, the reasonable expectations will bring peace of mind, but peace of mind in order for an investor is always to stay calm.
So, if in 2007 you invest in a fund or stock returns of 30% or so, maybe you can not help but a little disappointed, but you do not forget that this income is still in many other markets is difficult to get.
To judge the market is up or down more than the market can determine how many points up is more important
Their rush to predict how the stock market can go as high points, he might as well predict in 2007 the market is up or down. My answer is, the market will rise, smart investors will make money.
Because the A-share market valuation while not cheap, but still reasonable, macro-and micro-economy is still vibrant, capital is still abundant, the yuan will appreciate every aspect of the market continues to improve and enhance. So, in 2007 the risk of holding stocks is less than the risk of holding cash.
To understand the market price level is more important than the forecast market
How much the market can go as high point? The market will be altered? These days, it seems that everyone is asking and answering with a such a problem. My view is that, like the beginning of 2006 few people predicted the year above the high point in 2600 as in 2007 rose to the number of points is possible (though, I think it rose to 5000 points, the possibility of less than 1%) . Of course, if tomorrow, the market began to adjust is also possible. However, the important thing is not how accurate your prediction, it is important that when the market reaches a point and time, you can determine at what stage of the market. Smart investors and retail investors, the difference is that when the market bubble began to form, the former would perceive and use it, and the latter a result of irrational and lost. For example, when the market sometime this year's stand on the 3500 point, I will become wary.
Be able to make money to buy the stock markets rise is more important than predicted
A small rise in 2006 to buy shares in anticipation of these shares in 2007 to catch up, or buy a star in 2006, shares the expectation that their persistent efforts? I tend to buy stocks in 2006 the star. Is nothing going on behind the will to reason, if some of the stock to become a star in 2006, but the reasons behind, and did not disappear, then these stocks are still likely to become a star in 2007, as long as their valuations have not yet far beyond the a reasonable level. Of course, if I bought in 2006's laggards, it must be because the changes in fundamentals, not just because it is those left behind.
Look at an example. A few years ago, George Thomas, University of Houston and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Chuan-YangHwang have done such a study, they tested the U.S. market in 1963 -2001 years of transaction data and to develop a dynamic simulation of each combination. This combination has just bought a record 52-week high of stocks, and short selling had just hit 52-week low stocks. A result, the combined average annual rate of return higher than the market average of 7.8%, and such a combination in the next five-year period there is still a good performance.
Their explanation is that people usually have the stock will rise higher and not psychological dares to buy, so that these stocks still have a long time in order to achieve its desired price range.
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In addition, no longer a cheap market, we need not only the conventional business growth, we also need to "surprise": the high rate of return on capital stocks, stock performance and the interests of management or major shareholders close to stock, 2006 year earnings per share forecast at the beginning than the largest stock market in 2007, industry has big "action" of stocks, this year there will be a better performance. Because these stocks are give us surprise.
Professional knowledge is more important than technical indicators
Foundation outperform index do? I think that the equity fund outperformed the index as a whole is not the probability. Because this year's broad market index of blue-chip return will still push down prices, and individual accounts for the main index of large capitalization stocks is still higher than the weight allowed by the configuration of the proportion of the fund.
However, the same as in 2006, the Fund as a whole or individual investors will continue to significantly exceed the overall benefits. Although the fund professionals often been questioned, but in any case, professional investors for research time far more than ordinary investors, but also more organized and systematic. In addition, for many fund managers, the work is not only means of livelihood.
Psychological testing revealed an investment philosophy of
The truth by your side
I have studied at the Chicago School of Business. First class to teach the class so that each person to choose one from the 0-100 number, and then aggregated by the professors, and a mean figure. Who elected the average number of the nearest class 1 / 2, one who will become the winner and received little reward professor of individuals.
Typically, a number of randomly selected from the 0-100 number, with the average nearest 50, then its 1 / 2 is 25, so most people will choose 25. However, think about a step, if everyone think so, that is, everyone chooses 25, then the class average is 25, while the 1 / 2 is 12 or 13. Therefore, the wise student will choose the 12 or 13. Smarter students would think, these guys can be mingled here, of course not stupid, if most people think of the logic of the above and select 12 or 13, select the 6 or 7 chance of winning the immensely great. Of course, there are more smart people, such as our classmate Jennifer. She was with this logic continues, that eventually everyone will choose 0, her final answer is 0. Who are the winners?
The answer is revealed in. Professor Jennifer is the class of the most intelligent, but the winner was not her. Most of the students have chosen the class of 12 or 13, so few students choose 6 or 7 wins. The ultimate victory is more than the majority of groups who want to step, while Jennifer is because more than anyone else would like a number of steps but not to win.
In fact, the stock market, so, too. Most investors understand the industry and the stock is at the same level line. Most of the time recognized the existence of such bias, so the market only pricing error. If you can more than most investors would like to step forward and make investment decisions, the public began to wake up and action, you can start making money; if an investor much earlier than most people want to have further, At this time most investors do not realize what you have to understand, delay in operations, pricing errors may be a long time the existence of a smart investor to put up too much time suffering and to bear the opportunity cost.
Therefore, in-depth industry and mining stocks pricing error, ignoring the mass psychology and short-term trading market factors, adhere to their own judgments, will become the mainstream and is the most effective means of equity investment.
An experiment reflects the expected profit
I have learned in business school in Chicago, the business case is also quite another meaning: Students formed small groups to simulate manufacturing enterprises from customers to retailers, distributors until the manufacturer's industrial chain of information feedback process. Only accept all aspects of the information on a link, but the end-user information can not be fully understood.
When the customer needs in a month increased by 10%, the retailer that the needs of customers next month, may continue to rise, therefore, retailers, distributors asked the Panel to the 20% increase in the supply of goods. And distributors based on the same logic to the manufacturer for an increase of 40% of the goods supplied. Manufacturers in the face of the surge in demand for 40% would be very excited, thus more than 80% increase in production capacity.
This is what we have seen the market overcapacity psychological foundation. One-way flow of information in a relatively closed and each link in the chain on the wrong information to judge the whole industry chain will lead to the loss of great value.
Contrast, the stock market, the more standardized and transparent disclosure of information industry, its stock price more efficient. On the contrary, information disclosure lower than the market average level of the industry, typically military industry, country, amount and timing of military orders often have considerable uncertainty. Based on its specificity, and war to the public listed companies, investors, information disclosure is low. As a result, the higher the possibility of mispricing occurs, the stock more easily be overestimated or underestimated. Thus, the market would inevitably lead to all kinds of predictions and inferences, the pricing errors and extreme volatility in the valuation is inevitable. This is the investment in defense Listed companies may be higher than the market average return of the key to this is how we have to face the problems and must bear the risk.
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