Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-08-16
"5.30" crash has ended more than a year's unilateral increase in the city But the market fell into the city, is also impossible, unilateral economic, financial situation and the stock market the policy aspect, as well as K-line diagram of two clear bands like already indicates that the second half of the stock market will show a band market, and remains the focus of a gradual shift of the band rather than the focus of a gradual downward bull market bear market band, since this bull market is five constitute the driving force, ie RMB appreciation; high economic growth; listed companies performance of high-growth; share the positive effects of reform; restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, equity brought by the exogenous growth, these factors will not change in the second half of this year. Thus, in a continuous drop, investors should not fear and despair, but should be stable and calm and positive attitude of optimism + pay more attention to the bottom band features appear. In my opinion, tape the bottom band to the following ten characteristics:
A volume record low. Such as the Shanghai stock market this week, 3 and Thursday turnover has plummeted to 73.7 billion and 752 billion, 275.5 billion for the top of a huge amount of one third to one-quarter the amount of shrinkage can be extreme, indicating that the short side, sell-off is coming to an end, This is the most important and most realistic long-short conversion metrics.
2, severe oversold technical indicators. KDJ and RSI indicators, such as at 20 below, or passivation, ADR (10 Tian rise divided by the number of companies decreased by 10 days the number of companies and) up to 0.8-0.3.
3, the index under pressure and stay away from short and medium term moving averages. The index has been away from the 5, 10, 20, 30, 60-day moving average, under five days a deviation rate of -3 - 5,10 days deviation from the rate of -5 - 8.
4, exaggerate the bad. Broader market plunged after a row, is also back and forth and even exaggerated fear of a bad effect on the Lido numbness, and even as a bad profit for more than a misreading.
5, blue-chip stocks and high-priced stocks Budie. This shows that even in the long-term investors have been deterred by the decline in aggressive, to dare to insist on value investing philosophy, but only to be secured, and then drop due to other stocks has long been terrible, and the only blue-chip stocks and high-priced stocks are still recovering funds opportunity, this is usually the last stage of decline.
6, popularity were not scattered, accounts have fallen dramatically. This shows a huge decline in the market, lose money effects are more obvious, not new people entering the market.
7, hot spots scattered subjects devoid of. 257 individual stocks lower limit, such as Thursday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (3710.283,172.85,4.89%) index of the sample stocks more than 50 individual stocks lower limit, only 92 gained, and no clear hot spots, long have been unable to resist, as if a bear market phase.
8,大盘heavyweight diving, the index fell to accelerate. Su Liang drop in a row, the short main difficulty in the low back the chips, a natural enough reaction force, only through pressure broader market heavyweight, Crack integer-related, resulting in rapid decline index, in particular, kill the late afternoon, the immeasurable false break end trend of creating fear in order to completely defeat the confidence and the final long psychological line of defense, forcing many to kill more. This is usually the band reached the bottom of the last before You Kong.
9, pre-bitter varieties dropped stabilized stabilized. Since the "5.30" since the month, 50% of the shares was down 30-40% a month, of which 10% of the shares have fallen more than 50%, most cap, lower, ST shares index sharply again in recent days record low, they are no longer new lows, contrarian and even limit-up. This is also the tape-band at the bottom of the upcoming signal.
10, the authorities began to benefit more than the warm air blowing. City is back at the policy, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets at the end of the band must also rely on policies to forge, such as those on less than 1 billion equity reduction of state-owned shares for three years shall not exceed 5%, more than 1 billion equity reduction of state-owned shares for three years shall not exceed 3 %, which indicates that the SASAC is extremely optimistic about the market outlook, unwilling to let the state-owned shares left more than 3000 points on the floor. In another example, the Fund for approval four spin-off will add 50 billion market funds. Profitable policy trends in the follow-up, be sure to continue to pay attention.
Although it can not accurately predict which of the current round of sell into one index point will be limited to bits, but the band at the bottom of the 10 major feature of view, the author believes that the current broad market has entered a band for at least the bottom of the area.
