Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-29
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Large city staged a two-day roller coaster game, index of amplitudes of up to 109 points, trading volume is quite large, two consecutive daily total trading volume in more than 80 billion. Big City massive shock, is the main force has been shipped do, what should I do to understand this phenomenon.
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) Xinhua News Agency issued a document abstract possibilities: Xinhua News Agency issued a document that the stock market to a correct understanding of the status quo, rational grasp the stock market. In the text, although reference to the risk awareness of problems, but there is speculation on the part of the market means that the phenomenon, and there is not much criticism was intended. On the contrary, the hype prior to the work of international phenomenon, met with the Commission investigated and dealt with severely. In fact, speculation in the shares, the North Star, China Merchants Energy Shipping China CAMC little different than that. Just five days, the biggest jump ship investment has reached 2.5 times; striking of the North Star once rushed for more than 9 yuan, while its corresponding H-shares less than 4 yuan.
Can be seen that the attitude of management before and after difference is not small. Such a gap, are nothing more than two points, the first is the most frenzied speculation on the two new shares are still at a reasonable valuation range in the vicinity; second, the management needs of an active market sentiment. This column that the latter more likely, an active market will help attract external funding, be conducive to the smooth quality assets into the market, can help to solve the problem of non-tradable lifting the ban.
But one thing to note, this paper highlighted regarding the stock-index futures. In theory, the value of stock index futures have a stronger discovery, when the value is significantly deviated from the value, under the effect of the stock index futures prices will return to the value of center. In other words, big city, or too big, or too small are not ideal, prone to boom and the crash situation.
2) The dividend is the layout of the fuse body troop movements: The data show that in order to meet year-end bonuses, some funds have cash out behavior. Of this phenomenon, the industry has a different view. This column that the profit out is inevitable that there will be a very simple way to determine, within two days in a row, the two cities a total turnover of more than 160 billion has been considered as the amount of historical days, but the indices with no apparent directionality, but in a substantial way the shock occurs; this high trend of stagflation heavy volume is a typical behavior of the ship.
The key is in the capital flight in the same time, there is no admission outside the capital. Change the base from the investors look at China's boom, the new fund selling data, outside the capital is quite adequate, and the expected return of funds is higher. Therefore, these funds should be a high desire to enter the market, the reduction in any one of Ling Li could be their chance to intervene. In fact, some individual stocks of the Handicap are also demonstrating their entry behavior. Take the recent strong stock, for example, the Stock Trader extremely cruel way entirely unlike the stock of capital committed.
In addition, the profit-taking part of the funds do have to cope with factors such as dividends, but more positions may be adjusted behavior. In Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, for example, the weighted price-earnings ratio of 18 times, the overall look is still in a reasonable range. The most important thing is, a considerable part is not up to this price-earnings ratio, and is very likely to become the first choice after the agency transferred positions.
B) the main financial Game:
In the big city of violent shocks in the trend of individual stocks also showed a visible differentiation, again showing the pattern of early differentiation, which is the most direct embodiment of the flow of capital. A fund-based armies, still choose to underestimate the large blue-chip as part of a target, which mainly include large-cap stocks listed as a whole, or the poor transport facilities, large capitalization stocks and so on. The hot money is in love with technology stocks, relatively speaking, much speculation in technology stocks early, and there will soon deliver a major theme --- 3G. Overall, the strength of the two types of funds are quite concentrated, target is also quite clear.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
As the market turmoil plays out, there a certain degree of differentiation of patterns, suggested that goal orientation part of the adjustment in place of the large blue-chip, or the texture of a good technology stocks. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: is expected tomorrow will shock higher, Zhongyang at close.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: anticipated the tech sector, the Department of Banking plate still has better performance of the stocks.
Market Risk points: short-term oversold bounce or too large stocks, pay attention to rallies out, bearing in mind the risk of market fragmentation.
Protection measures: It is recommended rallies to trim, proper control positions.
