Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-01-11
By the early rise of money in real estate, non-ferrous metals, as well as Sinopec (600028 market, information, advice, more), etc. have started weight species affected by changes in short-term A-share market sharply lower on the confidence of investors took a heavy blow.
We believe that the recent leading decliners in the market a lot of weight is more important species are subject to the technical and short-term profits from the selling pressure plate, but its fundamentals are judged, we believe that the advantages of these varieties of A share market to further adjust reasonable range is expected to be relatively limited. In this case, we recommend investors to the market's future performance also should not be too pessimistic. On the contrary, as long as the relevant industry and company fundamentals are no fundamental changes, these A variety of short-term advantage of stock market correction in line with the market rather than making long-term investment value of which is further reflected, thereby long-term investor strategy species involved in these advantages, providing an ideal opportunity.
We believe that the performance of the next phase of growth remains the focus of the market, and although the performance of medium and long term, we remain optimistic about banks, real estate, non-ferrous metals industry and the performance of the continued growth of investment opportunities faced by individual stocks, but the short-term and words, the continuing rise in the short term, these recent hot stocks on the short-term attractiveness to investors has been somewhat reduced. Therefore, for short-term investors, we propose to refer to the following two main lines of its might, to find the next phase of the market potential of varieties.
1, the industry boom degree of recovery in species A typical such as steel and telecommunications industries Subject to competition in the industry continued to intensify the impact of iron and steel, telecommunications and other industries continued to intensify competition in the relevant company's profit also showed rapid decline in trend. And from the latest data, the steel industry overcapacity is still a trade, subject to the strict supervision of the management.
However, the recent market environment to determine, we believe that iron and steel, telecommunications and other industries in the economy has gradually picked up degrees.
To iron and steel industry as an example. The current domestic and international market prices of steel products which are in slow recovery from the so far this year, the Shanghai Baoshan iron and steel market, the composite steel price index has rebounded nearly 10%, plate steel index is 690 from the lowest point of the end of 2005, continued recovery in until March 8 to 862 points in just over two month's time, or more than 20%. Show experienced continued falling early, after the current steel prices have bottomed out showing signs of recovery.
Meanwhile, at the recent G Wuhan Iron and Steel (600,005 market, information, advice, more), G Anshan (000898 market, information, advice, more) have increased the product sales price in March, after the recent G Baosteel (600019 market, information, advice, and more) also announced second-quarter price increase 13% -18%, and price increases far exceed the market expectations of 5% -10%, indicating that iron and steel enterprises in the future market conditions generally remained relatively optimistic.
In addition, the joint inter-industry mergers and acquisitions, but also for iron and steel stocks may bring about active opportunities. Affected by excess capacity, competition in the industry continued to intensify the impact of Baoshan Iron and Steel market steel price index in 2005 fell nearly 35%, such as wires, plates and other general homogenization of a serious product, its price fell to cost or even below This has led to some of the steel plant began in 2005, the operating environment continued to deteriorate, making some of the lack of competition and scale advantages of small steel plants one after another out of the market, in order to improve the future supply and demand of the domestic steel market and steel prices fell further delaying play an active role.
At the same time, in order to further enhance and holding the position in the industry, steel industry, the advantages of enterprises in the near future also have launched a merger or joint initiatives in the hope that the advantages of scale to further improve production costs, improve the overall advantage. This makes the acquisition of joint behavior, frequently emerged in the steel industry. As previously powerful combination of Anshan Steel and Benxi Iron and Steel, the world's steel giant Mittal took over Valin, Arcelor acquisition of Laiwu Steel and so on. Iron and steel industry mergers and acquisitions and joint frequently emerged in the degree of concentration to further enhance the industry and enhance the competitive advantages of leading enterprises at the same time, but also for iron and steel stocks may bring about an ideal opportunity for speculation and active subjects.
The secondary market, subject to performance continued to drop, as well as the influence of investor pessimism, steel stocks share price since 2004, generally showing a weakening trend continuing, and many individual stocks share price had fallen to the lowest level, price-earnings ratio, book value and other indicators continue to new lows, indicating the stock market, steel stocks already reflect its business fundamentals and gradually the negative factors. Strategy in the market gradually shifted from a positive defense against the backdrop of these results are expected to gradually rise from a low stage of the industry faced "hold value" is expected to be more and more investors of all ages.
Thus, while the current iron ore price negotiations is still uncertain, making steel companies may face upward pressure on costs and risks, will continue to affect its share price performance. However, the current view of price increases of steel products, such as G Baosteel (600019 market, information, advice, more), G Wuhan Iron and Steel (600,005 market, information, advice, more) and other industries the advantages of enterprise, it has fully ability to remove 20% or less of the iron ore price increases impact on corporate profits.
At the same time, for G Baosteel (600019 market, information, advice, more), and G Wuhan Iron and Steel (600,005 market, information, advice, more) as promised, a high dividend companies, which hold long-term value has also been very prominent. To G Baosteel (600019 market, information, advice, more), for example, its commitment to the next three years, not less than 0.32 yuan per share dividend. To G Baosteel (600019 market, information, advice, more) is now about 4.15 yuan a share prices, G Baosteel next three years, the dividend yield is expected to reach about 8%, far higher than the corresponding one-year Treasury yields and lending rates. Therefore, even if G Baosteel (600019 market, information, advice, more) as a bond to hold, its yield is also quite good.
And iron and steel industry, similar to the current communications industry in China is about to enter the commercial 3G, digital TV transformation stimulated by such factors as the industry boom-degree is also being gradually restored, the advantages of the industry's profitability is being gradually improved. For these results have recovered species may face trading opportunities and equally deserving of investor attention.
Second, competition in the industry continue, but the company's profit is expected to improve the varieties of a total of 2 1 [2]
