Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-01-22
Since the end of October 2006 we raised the rating of Yantian Port is "strongly recommended", and as we paid in 2007 to run one of the industry focus on investment products recommended, the main reason is that "safety margin and profit margins," the perfect combination of In our view, does not consider the overall listing of the Yantian port at least the value of 12 yuan, while the overall market growth inevitably has led to the disappearance of the valuation discounts, profit margins significantly. With the recent price rise, its security aspect is shrinking, more and more reflect on the overall market's expectations, so we need to consider if the assumptions on the overall market to be fulfilled, Yantian exactly how much profit margins, whether worthwhile to continue to wait.
Suppose Yantian port listed as a whole, the company worth?
1,3 extend the building has been completed, the handling capacity of Yantian Port number?
Port handling capacity, and directly related to the length of coastline, we do not consider upgrading the efficiency of shore-based machinery and ship large-scale efficiency gains brought about, only according to the 2003 level to carry out measurement:
Salt 1,2-period shoreline length 2300 meters, in 2003, the highest throughput of 5.1 million, Yantian three shoreline length of 1,400 m, 3 extend the length of 3300 meters, in accordance with the level of 1,2-period calculations, the Yantian port as a whole can be completion of throughput of about 15 million. That is 3 and 3 extend at least 10 million corresponds to the throughput.
Throughput can lead to 2,1000 million, the amount of profits?
Yantian Port is currently the average income of a single-box 690 or so, even taking into account the price too high, according to the level of around 600 yuan calculations, Yantian Yantian Port, 3 and 3 extend the net profit will be around 2.8 billion, 35% of the interest corresponds to a profit of around 1 billion. This is a 24% tax rate calculated under the conditions and did not take into account the income tax preferential policies for five half-free 5, as well as foreign-funded enterprises transition period.
3,10 100 million profit corresponds to what is the level of earnings per share
We assume that, the company relies solely on additional acquisition of assets, 3 and 3 extend total investment 18 billion, according to 10 yuan / stock issuance price, then the additional earnings per share will be after the completion of the 1.16-yuan, even taking into account equity premium of 50%, earnings per share will be 1.08 yuan, but a matter of fact, we believe that the cost of salt with the Tianjin Port and the Yangshan just the level of equivalent acquisition is unlikely to have such a high premium.
To sum up, we believe that if the overall market, the company's reasonable price of 17-23 yuan.
In the overall listing of the timetable is not determined by circumstances, whether it is worth continuing to hold at present?
According to our projections, Yantian port in 2006 of around 0.58 yuan per share to continue to maintain 100% dividend under the conditions of the current dividend rate of return at 4.6%, it is still reasonable.
With regard to the overall market, despite recent market rumors, as far as we know, currently no specific timetable. Of course there are things we can not understand is also very normal. However, we reiterate that this matter after nearly three years of waiting and preparation, conditions are gradually mature and continue to hold the opportunity cost is gradually shrinking.
Messages can not be based on insider trading cases, we conservatively assume that still need two years, then the 2-year expected rate of return of 77% of the investment are also quite attractive. Moreover, rumors, or are not completely groundless, and we recommend that investors continue to hold the Yantian port, waiting for news of further uncertainty.
Risk Tip:
Short-term increase reflects the acquisition of high expectations, they not eventuate, could face short-term stock price adjustments.
