Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-13
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The fundamental easing liquidity is difficult backdrop, the central bank may be forced to adopt more tightening monetary policy. The foreign exchange investment management firms surfaced and up to 200 billion U.S. dollars in bond issuance, the market will produce what kind of impact ......
Difficult to alleviate the liquidity of the fundamental backdrop, the central bank may be forced to adopt more tightening monetary policy. The foreign exchange investment management firms surfaced and up to 200 billion U.S. dollars in bond issuance, the market will have some downward pressure.
First, the central bank decided to short-term trends in financial data
Should be said that rapid growth in liquidity to ease the difficult fundamental backdrop, the central bank may be forced to adopt more tightening monetary policy.
1, the financial data to determine trends in the Bank
3,4-month financial data, such as money supply growth, prices, loans, etc. will determine the growth rate of the central bank monetary policy, further trends in interest rates in February and a large number of central bank bills issued after the central bank is expected to shortly enter a wait and see phase of the temporary .
2, difficult to ease liquidity problems
Currently awash with liquidity, the fundamental cause lies in the exchange rate system and the resulting resource pricing and other factors, these matters can ease the liquidity problem will not cure.
Second, you can be introduced more stringent austerity policy
In the short-term excess liquidity is difficult to fundamentally ease the situation, the central bank may be introduced more restrictive monetary policy.
Such as Citibank predicted that this rate hike is just the beginning of the new year tightening, more tightening of monetary policy in the coming days on stage one after another, the central bank will be taking further policy tightening this year include: continuing to raise bank deposit reserve reserve ratio twice, and reached 11%; plus interest once; accelerate the pace of yuan appreciation.
This column that the central bank earlier this year, a substantial increase in the amount of central bank bills issued at the same time to raise interest rates, to a certain extent, on the mark used by central banks tightening monetary policy tools, strategies, subtle changes began to occur - that is tightening efforts will be even greater than ever.
And because the current reserve ratio and interest rates have some room for improvement, such as the deposit reserve ratio by 3-4 points, there are still room for improvement, while China's current interest rates are not high, objectively speaking, to the central bank to take a greater efforts to create a tight space.
Third, to accelerate the establishment of foreign exchange investment management company
Against the backdrop of loose liquidity, foreign exchange investment management whether the company will accelerate the establishment of 200 billion U.S. dollars of the bond issue will be how its short-term tightening of the market are worthy of our attention to the role.
A foreign exchange investment management companies to enter the preparatory stage
Lou Jiwei, deputy secretary general of the new State Council on the 15th of this month hosted the inter-ministerial joint state foreign exchange investment management companies demonstrate the formation of the preparation, positioning, organizational structure and other issues. Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, China Banking Regulatory Commission, Securities Regulatory Commission, China Insurance Regulatory Commission and other relevant departments responsible for more than 10 people attended the meeting. This is a reorganization of the state foreign exchange investment company, held its first preparatory meeting.
The main topic of this meeting is to exchange investment management company of the nature and positioning, followed by the company's management of funds will be the size, direction of investment and so on. Foreign exchange investment management company from a proposal to the preparation, during which more than a month, but in February, but with the mobility pattern of the spread of the increasing might be released as soon as possible to promote the management of this institution.
2,2000 100 million U.S. dollars of bonds to release
Foreign exchange assets management companies, investment quota will be 100 million U.S. dollars between 2000-2500, primarily through the issuance of renminbi-denominated bonds in the form of financing. How will the management of 200 billion U.S. dollars this issue RMB bonds issued in phases, or a one-time issue, its influence on the current market is clearly different.
If the 200 billion U.S. dollars one-time issuance of bonds, as the article mentioned in this column, will cause liquidity in the short term the rapid shrinking of the market stage a lot of pressure; and if adopted a phased release form, will depend on the size of each issue to analyze the real impact.
In addition, the issuance of bonds of the duration and whether circulation will determine their influence on the market.
Fourth, the market impact analysis
While this rate hike will not be published shortly tightening monetary policy, but since the mid-large organizations is widely expected the central bank will raise interest rates further after this meeting to adopt a more stringent means of tightening liquidity, which is expected to affect the mainstream of funds is no doubt operating strategy, and thus put pressure on the market. The central bank's tightening policy until the re-introduced, or the asset management companies set up it may be to eliminate this concern.
Therefore, we must not let short-term introduction of restrictive policies are no longer optimistic about the market simply because it may be that the central bank will also have more stringent measures in the medium-term introduced in the beginning. It can be expected in all the austerity policy can really put the time point, it might result in a low stage to bring about real opportunities.
