Position analysis tool for success financial management tips tips Bar

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-02-11

In futures trading, the price, volume, open interest are what investors are more concerned about the three elements. In the fundamentals are determined by circumstances, the short-term price movements to determine, in addition to technical analysis, the positions and the position changes in the structure more clear and concise reflection of the basic viewpoints of all market participants. Positions change with the period of price changes often have a certain degree of regularity, it can provide more accurate to investment in out timing. In a certain market stage, the relationship between prices and positions can be relatively stable for some time. Accordingly, operation, trade a higher probability of success, while the positions of the changes in the transaction a

Head clear understanding, also in line with futures trading, "as concise as possible" principle.

The traditional laws of supply and demand that the relationship between the market price affected by supply and demand, price fluctuations around the value. When a glut, when prices fall, is in short supply prices. Although the current information technology and network development has been fused into the global economy, accelerated the speed of the flow of information, but timely, accurate, comprehensive access to information still needs a complex information gathering process, and retail investors in the process there are still some understanding and use of information on the bias, so the average investor is concerned, do this work is complex and has a lot more difficult.

Investment in domestic stocks, quarterly publication of the investment funds, pension funds, insurance funds and QFII holdings listed company status and changes in the total number of ordinary investors often become an important basis for analysis in the market on the grounds that their R & D capacity than their own strong, the fundamentals of a better place. Facts have proved that once you have a certain rhythm, be able to keep up with the pace of institutional investors, then the probability of a successful investment is significant. Like the domestic futures market was also present on the CBOT market participants used to fund positions, CFTC position analysis of copper, as a basis for judging the direction of one of the market outlook, in the long run, the effect is still obvious. This is based on the laws of the market itself produces analytical methods, namely by analyzing the market, buyers and sellers to predict the balance of power changes in the direction of the market where buying and selling power status through position to analysis. Position analysis of the actual transaction has an important guiding value.

In the futures market, there are two forces: the buyer and the seller. The buyer to see more than that in the future market prices will rise; seller to see empty, that in the future market price will fall. In response, the general understanding that the buyer and the seller on whose army wins, who's capital strength, the market will develop in the direction to whom. As the fundamental factor determining prices is the direction of the changes in supply and demand, therefore, a higher degree of market futures varieties, any kind of financial strength are not adequate long-term control in the market. The real power of decision to the buyer and the seller is to changes in market supply and demand trends in the level of certainty.

In general, the main body of the positions tend to indicate the direction of the price direction of development, which is particularly evident in the domestic market. As the fundamentals will not change one day, in the basic fundamentals defined circumstances, can be said that the main institutions, especially large set of investors than the general insurance business on the fundamentals of an advantage, they are more understanding of the fundamentals of thorough, more comprehensive, so that their movements guiding significance to the transaction more. The following few examples illustrate a better position to change the meaning of price forecasts.

Copper is the most arrogant in recent years, the futures varieties, aside fundamental factors, released only from the exchange positions to analyze, it is obvious features are two-fold degree of concentration was significantly higher than long shorts, first, there are a few seats transaction success rate is very high. The long-term observations, intraday trading Another feature is the price after a certain level of callback and if it increases the overall positions, then the afternoon rise in the number of significantly more than the number down; if after a certain rise in the overall positions after the drop, then the afternoon performance of To fall more frequently. The author summed up the position of copper bull market rule is: drop Masukura, up the probability of large; up lighten up, or the probability of large. So, along with a high chance of winning the institutions do not make themselves in a passive position, which is in the copper market is obvious.

Over the past year, due to fundamentals did not support soybean prices rise, CBOT soybeans in the back and forth between 550-630 cents oscillation, corresponding to, the domestic soybean price movements also continue to seek support for the main oscillation. In the corn market, as energy prices continue to rise, the concept of corn, the energy they gain sufficient market speculation, Dalian corn futures prices continue to climb oscillation, were active, position a significant increase in incremental funding to intervene significantly. In this context, many investors invest in the international well-known master of the call under the influence of buying, but the profitability is not ideal, the main problem is not the fundamentals have changed, but the investors in the market structure and market participants spread a lack of in-depth understanding of the structure.

Dalian soybean meal and corn futures market, a higher degree of market-oriented, and the number of participants, the author of more than a year of position analysis found that there was one thing very clear: sets of security forces much larger than the speculative forces. Investors can forecast price list to verify the long-term track positions, especially in the background of the main concerns are spot changes in body positions. From the DCE position released list view, in a single day of enormous change positions a few days, the sets of security forces is much greater than speculative forces, it is very obvious.

May 9 this year, soybean meal to increase positions 70940 hand, the previous day's 376,296 to 447,236 hand in hand, Masukura increase nearly 20%. The top 20 overall positions 108,656 long hand, increase 19833 hands, while the top 20 overall positions 160,323 short hand, increase 24776 hand, it is clear that the degree of concentration greater than the short-long, and from the seats of view, holding the head of the seats in a lot of clearance has obvious spot background, but this volume look at a few seats on the day is not particularly large, indicating that the short-selling hedge involved in the probability of a larger disk. On the contrary, a great volume of seats to hold long-based, but the net is not much more than a single. Presumably, in the course of the day's prices, buying power is decentralized, while the selling power is more concentrated, the market to see an empty main body, and a resolute attitude (from a few trading days after the position once again a substantial increase position structure and May 9 no significant change in circumstances can verify this).

Currently in Dalian soybean meal market, a large number of individual investors holding long positions, while the limited institutional holders of short positions, which positions the maintenance of the structure, so that meal out of a strong rally to be difficult. From a game perspective, this conclusion is valid, unless the afternoon the reverse position apparent change in the structure. The corn market also exists the phenomenon. According to state positions, for soybean meal is concerned, from the short-term trading perspective, the continuous increase in the overall positions in the process, can be considered short rallies, but in significantly lighten up after the open positions can be considered more than a single, and group-buying auction.

Analysis of the above phenomenon, starting from the investment psychology can also find a basis. Quotes in a bull market rise, the retail price of the callback is expected to take part in short, the main body is a short-term bullish until prices fall again after buying, this operation will lead to position changes regularly: lighten up, down Masukura. In the bear market decline that, because of falling prices, from the trading psychology, the general investors are buying there is a strong feeling in order to group-buying auction-based, while the sellers are mostly available from stock in the strength of the background institutions, this when the rise Masukura often means tob powerful, while the fundamentals are not supporting rose up space is limited so to participate in short-selling, then there exists a good opportunity. On the contrary, in the fall, the spread is easy to stop the bull out of the city that corresponds to that the short was also short-term profit-taking, resulting in reduced positions. In the continuous cycle of life, the formation of market characteristics will be more obvious, that is, the rate of increase and the position is not a significant increase in the afternoon rise indicates the limited space, there are opportunities for short rallies; down lighten up a big margin, then the short-term market outlook fell space is limited, there are short-term buying opportunity.

Of course, the direction of determining prices is not the position the structure, but the basic supply and demand relationship, but the position changes of an objective reflection of changes in fundamentals. In the different market stages of the meaning of changing market positions will be different, in conjunction with a concrete analysis of the circumstances, but long-term perspective, position analysis of the transaction guide is obvious. In addition, a good variety of market participants based on the position analysis has been particularly effective, but for those transactions do not rely on market makers to maintain liquidity of active species, position analysis does not mean much.