Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-05-20
Stock operating environment and is inseparable from the whole market trend, which is already an indisputable fact. But how to determine the broader market trend reversal is more difficult, many investors often feel unable to start with, especially in the medium term and even more so when the short-term trends change. So, is there a more sensitive and reliable indicator for reference? Yes, this is on the card 50ETF trend.
"Happy Spring Duck plumbing prophet." As the ETF participants were mostly institutions and even super-institutional investors, whose transactions will be directly about the trend of ETF, also to a certain extent reflect the entire market's movements. Similarly, if the stock performed well, does not have the ETF trend testified, with its follow-up to trend naturally not be blindly optimistic. Especially in the broader market down turn, when, ETF is a advance directives, and this point of our operations in particular, have reference value.
We found that, when the market begins to start, ETF and the index of the general convergence trend, it seems difficult to arrive at more accurate conclusions. However, can be found by looking at the stock market index (for convenience, we choose the Shanghai index as a reference) on the row, ETF if only to follow later in the index, "slave", that is, whether in the start time or the rate of rise in both lagged behind the index, it should be regarded as a small bounce, followed by broader market will continue to fall; lead by ETF to rise on the Shanghai index has more than the "active" movements, will be brought up on a wave of Quotes. For example, start at the beginning of the current round Quotes June 6, ETF's market-leading strength only slightly, but rose to 2.13 percent the day, while the same day, the Shanghai index rose 2.05%, the full can be considered "active"; July 12 when the market re-strengthened, ETF achieving 4.18% gain, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3.43% on the same day, nature is also the ETF "active"; in September 29 and October 11 of the rally, the Shanghai Composite Index rose, respectively 1.96% and 1.60%, this ETF has gone up two days how much? 1.13% and 1.00%, lagging behind the broader market for the typical "slave", indicates the market's rally has not been co-ordination and confirmation ETF, the market followed by more strength out of that decline.
In fact, ETF and more reference value lies with a leading indicator of declines, and there are more "time and space ahead of quantity", indicating the role more explicit. Say this on the Shanghai Composite Index since September 20 has become increasingly high-1123.57-point decline in the trend started after the bar, in fact the decline in ETF has already advanced from September 15 start, there have been three trading days of the "time lag"; more obvious is that September 20 Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high of the current round of Quotes, but not moved by the ETF, not only to see a new high, and in 15 to 20 have occurred between the jump air down trend, the "space poor" very strong --- indicative ETF if one or two trading days not "lead" or not "follow" the broader market that is hard to appear strong, then, once the leader of its stubbornly and continued weakness in terms of the big city, it was only a possibility: the general trend not good.
Of course, so far, ETF only 10 months of the "history", the data are inadequate, then what kind of changes will occur are not fully known. But we can asked to observe, to find out what some regularity, then "for our own use," Our investment will undoubtedly be beneficial to his career.
