Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-05-14
Speaking of probability, we thought of some time ago on a popular president Jianhao Group, YUAN Bao-jing. Allegedly because international oil prices continue to rise, with more than 50 billion assets of the Chinese "investment king", is likely to become the richest man in China this year well-deserved. Of course, this can only be a hypothesis, and micro-incitement to murder, he can only say that a graduate from the University of Politics and poor childhood afraid of knowing, he has the arrogance of the insolent in Dacheng later fall into a terrible gap among the displacement, making him the thinking of the law ignores the probability of a fatal exist: too successful, he seems to matter to his name, has nothing to do it in, and went so far as regards even the common-sense " in case ... ... "not worth a ponder! This probability to the slight possibility that once become a reality, its destructive power is almost devastating.
It can be said of the probability of a correct understanding, will benefit greatly in many areas --- especially in providing profitable investment activities. Ancient Italian mathematician card when love gambling, and he had two dice may be towards the top of the 36 species were found and for the seven points of the probability of major. To the mid-17th century, probability theory by the French mathematician Pascal in resolving a result of forecasting the outcome of the rational allocation of money for gambling problems, when pushed to the front of the world. Today, probability theory has not yet caused great concern of ordinary investors.
In fact, such as futures, stock market, foreign exchange, type of investment that is a probability of play! Sorrows and joys, not a single victory or defeat, unless the termination of the investment process, it is difficult to determine winning or losing. Simply put, investing in stocks, and win more than 50%, that is, the winner of the. If the win rate was 100%, then even modest profit each time, stacking up, the overall profit rate is considerable. However, like the past few years I have so many Hong Kong stocks operate without a loser, there is fortunate Nai Shi light shrouded in general, this theory of probability can only be whom. If a lower win rate, that is, making a little money into the state lose lose, then win or lose the hedge after the final overall profitability may not be over. So, captures, and both are strongly avoid the possibility of indemnity.
Warren Buffett do ourselves a set iron rule: "First, never lose money; second, always remember the first." To do this, the investment should be preceded by a minimum 50% of chance of winning side to start with. Doubt about, and would rather give up or have long to wait, can not be easily input, can not arbitrarily do first after the count.
Some investors seem to grasp what the secret before the hot-off "rules" do not ask soap BAI Qing-hong, stock up a few boards, but also considered themselves more stupid than people who take their own rods, into the fierce pursuit, I have "probability "Cross: the case operation, 10 --- at least eight sets of short-term case, and its set pieces in general is not small, as long as the cutting off of the bottomless pit, a few rounds of the purse is almost on the withered. So, ah, a windfall of ideas difficult to riches results, since the missed opportunity, and went to catch another chance, anxious not to eat hot tofu, patiently waiting for is the investment "virtue" and can not see the Italian forgetting risk, Know every times have a small profit, and as small steps to a thousand miles also!
Investment market is a relatively unique battlefield, many do not speak the principle of air armies fought and are subject to change sides to join the other's camp, making the operation of the price trends in the rational and irrational forces of this elimination contest between Peter Long dynamically changing constantly, and often people touched the door. Set the index to investors to judge the market as a whole tend to provide a reference. But often the situation is: tape is one thing, individual stocks is another matter. In the same period, the trend of individual stocks vary. A few years ago-cap stocks, the broader market lower, but there are still hundreds of stocks Huchihuchi to puffing arrogant. Thus, it was also the banner waved and shouted: cast aside the broader market to do individual stocks. Many of the respondents will be tape aside, a vigorous start to stocks, but most people lose a mess after the dingy to get back out. This is the probability play a role in virtually! Index is the overall status of all the stocks to run a comprehensive tips, when it became Qingchao really hard left too many eggs will survive.
Generally speaking, the market for investors box set a range, within range, the index should be a big money as a prerequisite for large-scale operation. Generally not available to the arm-twisting the thigh, unless he is the best cross-agency or agencies with the most horizontal wear the same pair of pants --- But for ordinary investors, this probability of another geometry!
