Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-09
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: We estimate that the broader market may take a big second bottom Quotes. In other words, again an 3400-point probe. From the fundamentals, the policy aspect, at present, a lot of unfavorable factors. From a technical side, the market psychology perspective, is also quite optimistic. So, ... ....
Today, stocks in the basic case of no particular news, first out of the shock advances, 10:30, when the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3859 points, the highest point of the day, up 37 points. A growth rate of 1%. After the index to fall, fell to 1:30 pm of the day's low of 3724 points, a record low this time decline. 尾市multi-point counterattack, the index a slight pull. The final day on the Shanghai Composite Index rose 15 points, the increase rate is 0.41%. The Shen Chengzhi day down 71 points, the fall was 0.57%.
We estimate that the broader market may take a big second bottom Quotes. In other words, again an 3400-point probe.
1, from the fundamentals, the policy side, the current negative factors, hardly take a good opportunity.
Recently, the introduction of a lot of very negative on the stock market policy.
First, last week, the Ministry of Finance issued 1.55 trillion to be issued a special bond. This will have to take away the market a lot of money. This generated a bull market is the main reason for excess liquidity, that is, too much social capital. Tear down the great bull market funds are most afraid of is that he lost money. So, this time the policy side, that is fundamental for the big bull market, from the source to combat the right track, take away the community a lot of money.
This has long be hard to make a difference. From this point, should be quite optimistic about the market outlook.
Second, the right banker blows the market speculation will be a heavy blow. GF Public Security Bureau before the boss was away, which means the management of the banker, to crack down on illegal funds to upgrade. This is the theme of the recent huge drop in shares of the main reasons. And the speculative rise in the stock market an important driving force, policy makers face a heavy blow to the market in a relatively quiet phase.
Third, there will be a large number of new shares issued to change the market supply and demand. Recently a large number of red chips return to A-share market will make the market a large number of large capitalization stocks issued. This should only take away a large number of stocks in each tens of billions of capital, which in turn allow the market to a considerable loss of valuable funds.
Therefore, the market outlook is not optimistic.
Second, from a technical side, the market psychology perspective, is also quite optimistic.
First, from a technical side, the current Big City has fallen through several technical support levels, 4,000 points, 3,800 points were 11 short break. Average system also have issued a sell signal. The most important is that the market volume in the continuous, substantially reduced. The increase in volume is the main driving force broader market, and its sharp reduction is resistant tape to go down the main indicator.
Second, the market effect in significantly reduced profits, market confidence has been a heavy blow. Investors no longer the source of market power. Recent topics shares fell sharply, so that significant losses to investors, so that the stock market lost profits effect. Also enable investors to enter the market in a substantial reduction in power, but also a great blow to investor confidence.
The gradual loss of market confidence in the circumstances, the afternoon the trend is clearly worrying.
Several aspects from the above perspective, the market outlook is not optimistic. We are currently look at the first step, take a large secondary market outlook bottom. That is, estimated that tape would likely be dropped to near the pre-3400. Bottom to form another pattern.
Of course, the location, if the situation is not optimistic, to go after a rally, do not rule out the possibility of further decline.
