Technical analysis of the ultimate truth Money Tips

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-11

Orthodox technical analysis is never predictable Quotes of. It belongs to statistical areas, given only a probability analysis. That technical indicators can only be sent to our trading signals, the market certainly can not tell us what will happen. This is a brief introduction to technical analysis. vast number of investors if they can truly understand the meaning of technical analysis, and maybe we will be able to successfully into the big step! Unfortunately we do not seem to understand such simple logic.

Technical indicators from a larger perspective, that is nothing more than the two diametrically opposed ideas. One is the trend of thought; one is thinking of finishing. The former because the rise in buying stocks; the latter because of the decline in buying the stock. The former is the use of moving average system, led by the "trend indicators"; the latter is the use of indicators kdj headed "overbought oversold" indicators. Perhaps the technical analysis is that these two incompatible ideological set up. The use of technical indicators The key is this: in a particular market to find suitable scales of analysis of technical indicators; or find some kind of indicator of market scale.

We fancy card index of weeks (days) line features a clear trend can be found, but they can be found on line, finishing the cycle of significant features; while Lundun Tong monthly line features a clear trend can be found, but in years line but can be found obvious characteristics of the cycle of order ...... perhaps because the cause of inflation, these two markets in a larger scale, they are showing a clear upward trend. any market on different scales are respectively, show trends and finishing two kinds of features, perhaps the market is two kinds of contradictory unity. Perhaps the technical analysis is just that simple. clear trend in the present characteristics of the market scale, using the average system to grasp the trend Quotes; in became apparent Finishing characteristics of the market scale, the use of kdj class indicators to carry out cycle analysis and phase analysis. of course, no idealization of the market. We say that a clear trend characteristic of the trend is not absolute features! ! At different stages, this market also show finishing characteristics, but tendency to be much higher than the finishing characteristics of features. Example, since 2000 year and a half, China's stock market weeks of the finishing line is an obvious feature. Technical analysis bluntly, that is, select scale, commitment to stage! ! Choose a distinctive feature of the scale, take a small range (phase) in the opposite characteristics of the cost! This is the technical analysis are bound to have "defects" (cost) reasons, and that this "defect" (cost) can not be avoided!

Technical analysis is actually so simple. As simple as can be two lines, up to three lines to send a clear trading signal. As simple as only two minutes of indicators can be analyzed Quotes. The simple to the most classic of the two kinds of technical indicators system, was able to In any stock software technical analysis to find ...... I have to say is not a mystery! I can the person in charge, said: average system in the mid-term Quotes Analysis of China's stock market has an extremely important value! to know Shanghai Index Week (days) line feature is not impossible to change the trend, but it will not for quite a long time to change! Since the truth on the decentralization of the computer screen, why do we have medium and small investors can not be achieved profitable? or even the loss of The mess! the problem lie? I hope that a serious answer to my question: There is no one specific use of the card's index line expma indicator to its own unique operating system, and insisted that a few years? ? ! !

A beginning, I have already said: Technical indicators in the statistical categories, giving us only a probability analysis. Therefore, technical indicators do not tell us what would happen the market must! This means that any technical indicator is a congenital "defect", and of course I will be referred to as the "cost"! Perhaps the problem is in here: investors can not tolerate technical indicators such "flawed", they always try to pursue perfection! ! Perhaps everyone is in this pursuit of perfection in the process farther and farther away from success! They always try to be smart to think about "better", "no matter how good a little," "a little more perfect." . . . . . When a stock investors to sell shares through certain technical indicators, it is already 20% from the highest point of space. Then, he began to try to be smart to adjust parameters for indicators of playing the game; when issuing a false signal, he began to modify the parameters of the game to continue playing. He did not understand (adjusted sensitivity) are gains and there will be a loss! Even some investors in a number of false signals, will be such a complete denial of the value of technical indicators. To completely abandon these indicators and targets to find a more perfect!

Perhaps human nature is the pursuit of perfection. Of course, already a master of technical analysis is not in the above two, within the cycle of struggle, they began to use other means of striving for perfection. They began looking for more sample characteristics, to expand the technical index analysis thinking. Have joined the turnover, have joined the fundamentals of information. . . . . . There are even learn to master the technical specifications of different grafting to achieve a higher accuracy rate! Fortunately, we live in an age of highly developed science and technology. In the computer into the family circumstances, the above seems to start simple. This leaves us with many strange indicators, many I have never seen.

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I'm not saying this high sampling received technical indicators can not improve the accuracy of the analysis. But the more accurate indicator of the stability of the worse! Just a little time goes by, the slightest change in the market, such technical indicators will be out of the market! Perhaps this took place out of research and development stage, while the indicator! Fuzzy and defects may be more than perfect Everlasting! Einstein said that the formula can predict the future there is bound to the uncertainty! Wave Theory and Gann does not belong to the orthodox theory, that two kinds of technical analysis technical analysis is really a formula to predict the future! But the reason they can survive for long on the market. It is because of these two formulas to predict the future is uncertain! (Here I do not talk much about these two kinds of non-traditional technical analysis of the value and meaning, I just hope everyone can understand. The reason that they perfect, absolutely perfect for a vague, uncertain perfect) Simple is beautiful , the simple is stable. Hydrogen atom is very simple, but very stable. The more the speed of decay of heavy nuclei quick!

Perhaps everyone in the stock before copying. Learn philosophy, learn physics is entirely a good thing. All sectors of the masters are busy to find the commonality of all things, but make every effort to ignore the difference. It is a kind of philosophical reflection problems. is to a complex issue, summed up to simple! biologists in the world numerous biological evolution, dating back to the origin of single-cell organisms. physics scientist Albert Einstein discovered "relativity" after his old age, is committed to "grand unified" theory of the study (the unity of nature, four kinds of forces). trying to make physics, universal brotherhood! Of course, he only out of step "a unified theory of weak," Maybe he's thinking of the need to continue to study descendants. Moon was also a big universe is not derived from a simple "singularity" is a colorful world is not composed of a small number of elementary particles. Of course, scientists are not satisfied, still looking for elementary particles in common! This is the way scientists think the analysis, they find all the phenomena of nature. and us? is the embroidery, is embellished, the simple things get complicated! perhaps our world is to have two opposing forces developed to form a colorful world ....... Haha, which indicates that digress a bit, there is no interest that can be ignored.

Here I would like to master the research and development technical indicators say a few words. Moving average system and kdj indicators (same scale) graft, and technical specifications can not be cultivated invincible, but can only let you live forever in the constantly contradictions! Analysis of indicators of the ideological contradictions between the more opportunity the more, when you get a profit when the natural and inevitable absorption of a disadvantage! Think is very ridiculous, technical analysis expert can spend a life-long effort to improve the accuracy of technical indicators, but they refused to accept the cost of a small! It's like selling ice cream to an aunt, not to focus on how to increase sales to get more profit! Instead to focus all efforts on where the ice cream wholesale prices lower, even where the ice cream wholesale can do without the money! Haha, nice to so many. There is no cost, sales revenue is equivalent to profits.

Finally, I make a very appropriate for me since I think that analogy. The market is like 5 cards, of which four spade a hearts. There are two forms of gambling: one is able to get into hearts earn 10 yuan, while the pumped Spades lose 1 yuan; the other one is able to get into hearts lose 10 yuan, while the pumped spades earn 1 yuan. Changes in the market (different) is just black and red black and red odds ratio and the change! Of course, you can gamble every time before the arbitrary choice forms of gambling. Technical analysis can only tell us to choose which form of gambling is not the first time to tell us how to draw in the hearts and earned 10 yuan! ! Or how to use two different forms of gambling alternate ways to maximize profits! ! Interested people can play this game, try using the first gambling specific way, the second form of gambling is used interchangeably. What kind of final earnings more? ! ! I do not think anyone would be dumb enough to try such a silly game, anyway I was bored experiment many times. Unfortunately, the majority of the stock market is to use the second form of gambling! Often due to "short-term experience," the relationship between the people who use alternate forms of gambling are likely to lose more!

Technical analysis is not an exact science, but rather a mindset, exercise, a cultivation of Du Shu. Successful investors, are in complete markets do not have the necessity to find a trace of the necessity to achieve the ultimate profits! This necessity is often not the slightest from the market, but their own Dushu! Members may feel that my poker analogy is ridiculous, but if you replace the 10000 to 1 yuan to carry out the game. Three times to see if they can, or even six times, while the indifferent consecutive lost 60000! ! This is the mentality of exercise! ! Du Shu is very simple, more critical mindset. Want to know when we play the game is fixed, the probability knows! The market only give us an approximate probability, could not be so clear! !

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