Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-03-19
The last century, the latter half of eighties, China imported a large number of published books on modern Western philosophy, such as Nietzsche, Sartre, etc., but probably the most eye-catching Freud. Published in 1900, known as "psychoanalysis first masterpiece" and "The Interpretation of Dreams" and "girls Dura Story" was the best-selling book, then, Ge You just because of the movie "Wanzhu" and fame, he was bald in the film was considered the head full of wisdom, which is mainly because of his dreams, and Freud to explain to the actress, who popular understanding of a man seeking a partner for the time when in fact he is looking for his mother. We know that Freud's intention is that from the nature of the subconscious desire proceed dream is to meet the desire. However, this article has no intention of reversing the dream of physical parsing, this point is that investors in the stock market wealth have a professional analysis of dreams, but not like Ge You as Huluntunzao The Interpretation of Dreams.
Through the discovery and hold a profitable growing business is the dream of the stock market wealth, the most important part, and the corporate profit is not natural, it has two prerequisites:
The first is that excess capacity can not be. Studies have shown that each additional percentage point of China's investment can be increased GDP0.2%, but each one percentage point increase in consumption can be increased GDP0.8%. Well, from the macro-economic formula we can see that, if other conditions remain unchanged, even without considering additional investment, the impact of depreciation on corporate profits, the former growth mode, the growth of corporate profits, only the latter pattern of growth of the Enterprise a quarter of profit growth. This gives us a lesson that the current domestic investors to the core of economic growth mode, we definitely excess capacity, followed this pattern of economic growth for investors is a very bad news, from the fundamentals point of view, the biggest bull market to wait for the contribution of consumption on economic growth and greatly extend the day of arrival. Around the capacity problems, investors still concerned about whether the costs of business can continue to decline, the loser is out.
The second premise is that consumers are willing to pay high prices to give enterprises more profitable. This is mainly from two aspects: First, a monopoly, forcing consumers to accept higher prices. However, apart from the natural monopoly can be long-term maintenance, other forms of monopoly there is a big risk, such as power generation has a monopoly business, is now almost become a non-profit enterprise. The second aspect of the profit from the business model, or a combination of resources. For example, this year has a brand-name medicine is not a small rise, thanks to economic growth will bring more people consume brand-name medicine of this story, but there was fell in the East A donkey-hide gelatin, in addition to equity factors, Dong-E E-Jiao a model is also still a problem. The remaining companies are firmly grasp the core of traditional Chinese medicine products, such as Yunnan Baiyao All products are built around the core concept of bleeding started. But the donkey-hide gelatin and women are trying to develop the core concept of blood unrelated to health care products, forced to consumers to promote the concept of vague health products, the result is the actual growth of profits is always lower than expected.
On enterprise profitability model, business school professor, has been summed up more than 30, such as Intel's Moore's Law, Microsoft's industry standard, Wal-Mart's low cost and efficient. Each investor when the investment should have the expertise to identify a similar Dongfang Electronics, Magicstor such a false dream.
