Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-04-27
At this stage, the investment factor in airline stocks should pay attention to three main aspects: (1) industry supply and demand conditions; (2) international oil prices; (3) appreciation of the RMB rate. Supply and demand from the industry perspective, in 2006 the accumulated 1-7 months, domestic air total turnover grew 16.1%, with 03-05 years of compound growth rate of roughly equal.
Even if the demand growth in 2007 higher than the growth rate of 1-2 percent capacity, the industry load factor will remain high at 70% or more, would not have dropped significantly. From the revaluation of view, appreciation of the exchange gains arising form the first half of the airlines in 2005 and 2006 the main source of operating profit. For every 1% appreciation, Air China, Shanghai Airlines, China Southern, China Eastern's EPS increased by 0.012,0.027,0.056,0.047 yuan. Air China because of the lowest debt ratio higher proportion of income on international routes is a least one benefit. Aviation fuel prices the airlines, the main reason for losses. The recent decline in international oil prices could prompt the reduction in domestic aviation fuel prices, airlines there is a profit opportunity for reversal. If oil prices fall to 2004 levels, the airlines in 2007 a very substantial profit. Decline in international oil prices will lead to the domestic airline stocks rebound. From the international airline's share price movements, the recent two weeks have 5-15% of the rebound. While the industry-tend to make the airlines the opportunity to end or almost the same, but taken together, continues to recommend a better choice of safe sexual Air China (601111
