Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-06-08
Looking professional journals, inadvertently Miaodao a report, the League of Nations led by toshiba as excellent manufacturers, began to feel an interest in the company, how it all seems great company, and its use MOCVD technology, there are strong barriers to entry or even, LED and in the future of lighting revolution miles, last year's allotment more than 5, the current 53 yuan, super cheap, the next day apart from anything else, buy 50, over the two days, the stock began to rise, rose to 63 yuan, "I know! !! "I am filled with a sense of achievement with the practical psychological sense of my analysis turned right and started thinking about when stock prices rose back to 100, intended to take the money would replace the United States that Taiwan hi, just get a new 320 blue sky, his face can not help but laugh Polygonum posumbu exposed. Unfortunately, the next 2 months, the stock actually fell to 36.7 yuan, I am reluctantly forced to stop-loss selling, and even more unfortunately, the stock shot up after I sold, and even rose to 140 yuan, I swear "In the future No matter how closely I have to hold down prison! "
Fundamentals is a very interesting analysis, analysis is correct, the thrill of that kind of fun teach people to forget .... Fundamental analysis is the correct one powerful tool, but if the wrong use, the consequences will be disappointing and not acceptable "How will this" ....
Following these points, is the most basic analysis of the mistakes that were easily (and I also often unconsciously guilty):
1, the fundamentals of information as time-sensitive diagnostic tools, for example, when I study "Chroma" in fundamentals, carefully evaluate its debt ratio (wow! 10% only), current ratio (the terrible 600 %), inventory, annual revenue growth rate, business growth rate of benefits .... Chroma is a letter found in a good company, and the price earnings ratio is very low, I can not wait to buy 5 in the next day, over half a year, during which stock prices up anti-down, I wonder, "my research no Cuoa, how could this be? is obviously a good company .... "The complex, in my university to buy the stock often occurs, the fault is not the results of this assessment, but" timeliness, "Just think, if I am 3 months ago look at this information, whether the shares in respect of 3 months ago I discovered early response? An analysis of the reaction may be three days, it may be three years away .... We often because of a sudden to make an analysis would consider it a great discovery, hastened to establish positions in the market and look forward to an analysis of stock prices as I go. But the market reflects the results of this message or the time it is difficult to grasp. Our "instantaneous discovered" as a stock "At this time the up or down based on" In fact, it is absurd.
2, from the vacuum perspective on the fundamentals of information one file at this time the stock price of 80 yuan, so the stock is engaged in the import file processing, and is expected to exchange rate depreciation, devaluation will result in raising the cost of its raw materials, for a bad, so this stock will likely decline, falling prices are a reasonable response. Suppose now stock began to fall, fell to 70,60 it might be reasonable, but the note fell to 40, the "fundamentals bad elements" still bearish? Fell to 20 yuan left, this so-called bad news, you may become a "profitable", incredible, right? ! Other words, "bad news to a price will no longer be bad," so fundamental itself should be no such thing as bullish or bearish, but opposed to the "price" is concerned, there is only beneficial to a lot or bad.
3, set a price not lower than its actual price of a stock with declining, I am very interested in it that this is a stall value stocks, I figured for this stock with the "real value" at a reasonable price-earnings ratio or other means which calculates an estimated value of 25 yuan, and the shareholder's equity of 15 yuan, 40 yuan price at this time. After a fortnight, the stock turned down to 25 yuan, I have actively buying, unfortunately, the stock price continued to decline, down to 15 yuan, I have almost all their household possessions shuttle on top, because at this time is the net value of the!! Not would fall!! a result, even down to 7 yuan was arrested, or even below face value .... This story is a real place in my friend's father's body, which he bought the stock file 200, and now he did not even dare look at this file's offer .... My conclusion is that "real price is not necessarily a strong and effective support," someone is nothing and, as often it will still have an effect, over a period of time, stock prices often return to the "reasonable price", but remember, support is not will occur at this very moment, it seems that there are other factors that we have overlooked .... Similarly, the corporation has a stock with the cost is likely to fall below the absolute, legal, despite the large stock price will rise is not 100% the kind of thing, corporations would lose money. Each trend will be short some people started figuring the cost of corporate holdings that this cost would not fall below, I think it would be better this time calculate their own profit and loss brought it, "trend is not because you pulled a partner instead of having to turn. "
Often see a lot of people do not correctly use the correct basic analysis of information, hoping to provide some help.
