Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-05-07
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: In the broad market return to the previous highs, the market in the bad rumors began to emerge, such as raising interest rates, abolition of interest tax, etc.; However, the market has not crashed down, but Yuecuoyueyong, behind this seemingly contradictory, What kind of main hidden conspiracy?
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) The pre-peak intensity in the vicinity heard bad: In the broad market return to the previous highs, the market in the bad rumors began to emerge, such as raising interest rates, abolition of interest tax, etc.; However, the market has not crashed down, but Yuecuoyueyong . Most worth noting here is that this position is a bargaining chip in the early lock-point and just get out of trouble, but the market sell-off demonstrated significantly less than expected.
So, is it bad rumors on the market does not constitute a substantial influence? In order to have a better understanding of this issue, let's find out about them one by one. Interest rates and the abolition of interest tax, there are rumors say, the management may again use a portfolio of strategies, that is, raising the benchmark one-year deposit interest rate 0.27%, while removal of the 10% of the interest tax, and this will be the end of the actual deposit interest rate is negative interest rates in history. However, such a combination of punches may be difficult to change the pattern of savings and to move the stock market, relatively high-yield in terms of the stock market, the attractiveness of the savings deposit interest rates is rather limited. In addition, the regulation of combination punches are not directly aimed at the stock market, so bad ingredients is relatively limited.
China Banking Regulatory Commission punish illegal funds into the market, the China Banking Regulatory Commission announced on the 18th, the CBRC decided to diversion of credit funds by corporate banking arm of the eight administrative penalties. It should be said, the CBRC in the attitude of prosecuting illegal money into the market relatively strong, but in the current published data, more than 4.4 billion in illegal funds from being diverted, entering the stock market more than 2.5 billion, relatively close to each day 300 billion turnover point of view, illegal funds is difficult to constitute an effective impact on the market.
Outflow channels, China's Tenth National People's Congress, chairman of the 61st conference recently announced that it will 24 to 29 June of the Tenth National People's Congress held its 28th meeting, the consideration of the Ministry of Finance to issue special treasury bonds purchase of foreign exchange, that is, the establishment of the State foreign exchange investment company will be a step towards real; In addition, the Shanghai-Hong Kong cross-border transactions are prepared and ready to work. In the long run, these two measures on the A shares of funds diversion effect is not small; but in the short term, its negative impact is reflected in the more psychological level.
The above overview of several negative factors, their substantive impact on the market should be very limits. More importantly, they do not reflect the nature of the management of pressure will be a tough market, meaning, therefore, they bad failed to a great extent the main force to do more to combat the courage and confidence.
2) The main really do not fear bad: Despite the current retail of A shares have tended to dominate the market, but the trend is still the backbone of funds, private equity funds and large institutions such as shareholder. For funds, this column article in the 5.30 on the view that they are not easily short the grounds that the company's fundamentals have not changed the background of excess liquidity, the short may have to pay a higher price (Takong Quote). Second, the rational management of the fund should be able to realize the attitude, that is aimed at cooling, not strongly suppressed. Now it seems that this column was underestimating the ability to sell into the market, but to determine the Fund and other bodies should still accurate, they do take advantage of this opportunity to re-configuration of the position. From this point of view, in the back of the stock market, the Fund and other institutions should also not easily short.
For private and some large shareholders, routinely, they must belong to the relatively flexible style, class and policy trends are more sensitive to pay attention to the situation and not easily lean against the wind. But this time, in the bad case of the continued rumors in the management of the wind against the background of speculation, they are still challenging the previous high point, it seems that is not a simple lure more. Column that shares some themes with substantial assets, reorganization or injection, is that they are not afraid of bad, brave do more backing.
B) the main financial Game:
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of configuration varieties of higher margin of safety, but the overall position has also been a relatively early stage decline. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken while walking to see, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger, even in the heavyweight competition, the same is not deep wading.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: tomorrow is expected to be repeated shocks.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: proposes a focus on mid-year report by the concept and directed issuance of the pre-concepts, to maintain a certain degree of caution.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions.
