Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-30
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The recent rapid appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar, the part that the rapid appreciation of the yuan but for the future tightening of monetary policy in a substantial expansion of the space, so in essence rapid appreciation of the yuan mid-market fund is not a good side in terms of the signal. In addition, there is a real depreciation relative to the euro and other possibilities are also weaken the yuan against the U.S. dollar medium-term bullish influence.
Since the yuan against the dollar this year, showed a "slow appreciation of the main shock wave moving supplement" the general trend. Since the exchange reform since the yuan against the U.S. dollar exchange rate has experienced several relatively large fluctuations, in particular the July 27 yuan rose to 7.9808 against the U.S. dollar, reaching in 1994 the merger of China's exchange rate since the yuan exchange rate, the highest level, compared with exchange rate reform Before cumulative appreciation of 3.6%. Most experts believe that in accordance with the present situation continues, the yuan would rise to 7.8 end of the year or so, the rapid appreciation of the yuan against the dollar trend is quite obvious.
In general, the RMB appreciation on the medium-term market funds face, and some individual stocks benefited from the appreciation of the RMB should constitute a certain degree bullish support. However, based on current realities, we believe that the medium-term yuan appreciation on the overall market trend and the stocks of good little effect. Investment strategy in the second half, the yuan appreciation theme should be put back burner.
A fast appreciation for the tight monetary policy to provide space to display their
China's current monetary policy independence to a large extent by the impact of exchange rate policies more directly, the central bank if you want to take such a drastic increase in interest rates and other means of tightening too much liquidity, then the question is one that must be considered to add further yuan appreciation pressure. Exchange rate policy of the central bank's monetary policy tightening that such interference had a direct impact on monetary policy room for this.
However, once the exchange rate to accelerate the pace of reform can be an early release of some of yuan appreciation of space, the central bank's short-medium term for the completion of the macro-control goals, we have previously described in the article to take a more severe tightening of monetary policy, open space, and This is undoubtedly the market is already tight funds had a negative impact surface.
Therefore, we believe that while a market capitalization of RMB appreciation in itself a good role in a favorable surface, but in today's complex macro-environment, the tight monetary policy, the negative impact on the market trend is more significant.
Second, the appreciation of the RMB against the euro and other currencies slowed
According to the relevant data show that in the first half by raising lending rates and deposit reserve ratio in the second half of economic growth will slow; the United States also continued to raise interest rates and high oil prices due to the impact of the real estate market cooling, add jobs reducing the number of leading indicators, consumer confidence index declined. The real estate market index from January's 57%, fell in May to 45%; in April new home sales decrease 5.7% year on year; motor vehicles and parts declined by 0.3% year on year sales. May consumer confidence index in April fell to 109.8 high 103.2, signs of economic growth continued to slow significantly. With Guangzhou Bandung Network article in this section referred to the "double red" issues affecting the U.S. dollar in the second half of the weak trend will continue to develop.
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However, there is a good economic environment in the euro area, leading indicators to maintain an upward trend from month to month, 1-April and 109.3, respectively 107.9,108.5,108.8, which in April to its highest level since the euro zone in 2000; especially the entrepreneur confidence index improved from month to month, 4,5, rebounded to the point above, it was the January 2001 euro-zone business confidence index for the first time since the return to the basis points or more. Climate index rebounded, suggesting the euro zone economic growth will accelerate, and because the euro zone the United States, China and other positive economic trends, the euro more attractive to investors will continue to increase.
In fact, having regard to the performance of future economic growth, the appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar rate of appreciation of the euro may not be as fast. Interest rates and foreign exchange controls and other effects of the euro in the medium term attractiveness to international investors may be higher than the yuan. This would greatly diminish the weight of speculative hot money on the possibility of pressure in the yuan, so the RMB appreciation on China's capital market benefits generated by multi-role will be greatly weakened.
Third, domestic policies are also "buffer" RMB appreciation impact
On the one hand, the management of domestic enterprises and individuals to relax in overseas financial markets, restrictions on the formal launch of QDII. Since then, the People's Bank of China Banking Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued the "Commercial banks offer offshore wealth management services Interim Measures," and the first approved by the Bank of China, ICBC and Bank of East Asia a total of 48 billion dollars in the collection valet purchase foreign exchange for overseas investment quota. Such encouragement of foreign investment, foreign exchange funds would directly alleviate the situation of excess domestic liquidity and ease pressure on RMB appreciation also weaken the yuan appreciation on the domestic stock market brought about positive effects.
On the other hand, directed at the appreciation of the RMB funds into the domestic market is mainly in the capital market and hoarding of real estate market, and as speculative hot money exacerbated the impact of the relevant market, the state will take appropriate measures to limit access of foreign investors . Such as the country with a New Deal for foreign capital in the domestic real estate companies set up and the purchase of commercial housing made more stringent regulations to strengthen macro-control of real estate, but also imposing a strict control of foreign investment to enter the domestic collection.
To sum up we believe that in the current macro-context, because the complexity of the relationship between monetary policy, as well as the possibility of a real depreciation relative to the euro to ease the rapid appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar while the domestic stock market funds to bring positive side effects. Appreciation of the renminbi on the capital market influence has been greatly weakened, so we in the medium term for the concept should not be overly concerned with the appreciation of the renminbi.
Finally, it must stress that it is not concerned about being a profitable major impact of RMB appreciation is based on the current medium-term macro-environment in terms of the special. In the long run, RMB appreciation on the capital market bullish impact and improve the valuation of assets related to listed companies is still evident, so the concept of yuan appreciation from a long-term perspective is still worth investors in mining.
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