Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-06
Source: Huaxi Securities Author: Xu-Yang Luo
In the Hong Kong stock market plummeted 564 points, appeared five years, the biggest one-day drop under the influence of the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market opened 103 points lower, respectively, 32 points, but then buying continued surging approach, the first to hit again this year Shenzhengchengzhi a new high of 5490 points. In the sad but also happy occasion, the pace of the bull market continue to steadily move forward!
The secret of a strong bull market
Wednesday Dikaigaozou Shenzhen and Shanghai stock index, the market will soon overcome the effects of Hong Kong stocks plunge, in which wine-making industry, aerospace industry, nonferrous metals, financial sector, steel plates, etc. dominate. The volatility in the external market when the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a strong record high after adjustment, which has internal and external for two reasons. External factors: First, to enhance the appreciation of the yuan to accelerate the value of stocks. Yuan central parity against the U.S. dollar another new high of 7.838 yuan finally more expensive Hong Kong dollars. Under the accelerated depreciation of the dollar, U.S. stocks plummeted; As a result of the Linked Exchange Rate system, Hong Kong dollars followed the depreciation of local stock re-measures; alone do not change the trend appreciation of the RMB, Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares is naturally a pair of little red 10000 green. Second, the stock market diversion savings, housing market, futures funds. Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market has been rising since the beginning of sustained upward trend in the bull market continue to attract capital inflows, savings decline in the growth rate, the real estate market, regulatory constraints to higher prices, non-ferrous metal commodities bull run after the diversion of funds into the stock market a robust type, which are to further promote the the stock market can be a variety of channels to absorb the funds. The new rapid distribution of securities investment funds, QFII quota upgrade adds to the backbone of the stock market, according to Shang Zhengbao reported that the board's data show that institutions in the vicinity of large electrical Masukura 1800 to the fund, QFII, insurance companies on behalf of institutional money in the bank's hosting a special account A surge in the stock market value of 60 billion yuan, while the A-share market in 10 months in circulation amounted to 90 billion increase in market value. Shows the main institutions have Kongpan Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets, break 2000 points, just Lagaojiancang first step.
Internal factors: First, the three plates generate money effect oversold. Non-ferrous metals, new energy, aerospace military plate was once spike dampen investor enthusiasm, but it has recently been re-excavation of new capital into the new gold, there is renewed interest in radiate investors. Due to zinc, gold prices soared again, Chihong Zinc and Germanium, in gold and gold by the market re-positioning, which Chihong Zinc and Germanium high of nearly 60 yuan for the non-ferrous metal plates bring new excitement. Tianwei change security, aerospace mechanical and electrical for the new project will bring additional profit, a further increase in market valuation. Hongdu Aviation, Baoji Titanium because of its monopolistic position of charm and high-speed growth, re-cover their short positions to attract funding. The profitability of leading shares in the demonstration effect, the three plates have oversold the performance of a 82 phenomena of "eight" the main force. 2, the major agencies continue to do more, wine food, financial services, iron and steel plate in Wednesday to continue trying to flaunt. Clearly the mainstream funds continue to be optimistic in wine consumption in the food industry profitability, out of liquor during the Spring Festival next year's expected price increases, Maotai, Wuliangye and other companies have been early on bought in advance of funds. Because securities markets are booming market, securities companies have been raising earnings expectations, leading to benefit from the plates again robbed chip brokerage. Mainstream funds have a clear profit growth is clearly optimistic about the industry leading company, but do not underestimate the value of the miss of the leading iron and steel plates of care, Baosteel, Angang Steel Company Limited, etc. especially in the potential. When the oversold Bacheng a sustained rebound in the stock, while the blue chips in the second-echelon has continued to perform, then the 8 +2 "10 will be clearly revealed the internal factors of the A shares arrogant.
Banking stocks extravagant treat?
Even if the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market bullish, but investors remained attached to bank shares plate movement. After all, it already accounts for Shanghai and Shenzhen market value of more than three banks into the regulation of the plate every move for each investor's nerves. So, now the price of bank shares in the end extravagant treat it?
Recent Swiss bank latest report that the current stock price Mainland banks in 2007 is expected to roughly 2.5 times book value, while the current global banking stocks in emerging markets average of 2.1 times, which led to the Hong Kong market in the Chinese bank shares fall and drag the performance of its A shares, mainland investors began to worry about its A shares with high premiums or for the taking after soaring, which ultimately led to the stock market avalanche. We need to look into the reasons bank shares have been promising, mainly to maintain rapid growth of its profitable actions, the main factors of growth from the assets, the net interest margin expansion, as well as intermediate business income has increased significantly. Such positive factors have led to bank shares in 2006 and 2007 earnings are still able to maintain rapid growth. The market is also expected that, due to the macro adjustment factors, bank lending slowed in the second half in 2006, but in 2007 a quarter turn the massive increase, which will surely further enhance the bank's profit forecast. The margin trading, the introduction of stock index futures will increase the banking stocks institutional needs in 2008 will be tax reform is expected to increase more than 10% of its performance. The current appreciation of the renminbi against the backdrop of bank shares should enjoy a high premium above the market average.
A bank shares weighed on the current basic traction by its H shares to China Merchants Bank, for example, its H shares in the Thursday closing price of 14.7 yuan, A share closing price of 12.72 yuan, China International Capital Corporation that its H shares positioning reasonable A share is a discount of 15.6%. In the short term, A shares are still up space, but hard to shake off the constraints of H shares. However, conch cement, and China's Sinopec A shares is higher than the phenomenon of H shares of view, with the change in investor preferences, as well as the background of appreciation of the renminbi, A shares of bank shares is higher than the future possibility of its H shares, banking stocks in particular, with the introduction of covered warrants in the future, as well as margin trading, stock index futures and other new system was in place for the inevitable increase in demand for banking stocks, which the bank shares hit a new high stability and poised to bring support and motivation.
In December the two suspect
While the bull market atmosphere on people's minds, but in the face is about to enter in December, investors still hold different views, which lead to the December afternoon two guess.
First, in December crash? In 1996, Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market crash had occurred in December, or as high as 21.11%, 11.22%. From a technical perspective is the surge was continuing the trend of the amendment was subsequently adjourned to rise in January 1997; From a policy perspective, the management of 11 consecutive made to recover gold, and finally to make cattle back. Indeed, the current technical overbought need to be amended, but the policy side control the stock market measures are not obvious, the macro adjustment is only a partially overheated sectors of regulation. The soaring prices can be unbearable, but the rise in stock prices seems to cause for optimism.
Second, continue to boom? The Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market soared in November has been 18%, 11%, from the component B means the record breaking run, the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock break 6103 points and 2245 points, the general trend. From the Wednesday close of view, Shanghai and Shenzhen cities to go beyond the all-time high, must continue to surge 11% and 9.3%. Plate and steel plate from the bank is still the leading shares rose more than 10% of space Eighty per cent of oversold stocks are also entered an upward trend in view, this possibility can not be ruled out. The risk is that the external drag on the stock market crash, expansion pressure and so on.
