Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-02
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The stock market ended five-year bear market, entering a new bull market. It can continue for how long? In our view, be able to last 5 years: the large-scale bear market away five years, a new bull market should also take a 5 years. Went on a five-year bull market, resulting in the factors that a bull market is more solid, better to go for 5 years.
This year's big market, the stock market profits to reproduce the effect: average were 6 into, stocks rise nearly 6-fold, "600,547 Shandong gold", the main hot plate, "non-ferrous metals" average increase of 2 - 3 times the C of E "Wuliangye" increases in nearly 10 times. In this under the influence of social capital the past few years continue, a substantial outflow of the stock market began a large-scale return to the stock market instead. And led to record breaking stock market turnover in recent years, a new high: May 16 Second City, a record volume of nearly 900 million in recent years, the amount of days. This week also hit 361.7 billion the amount of rare days. May 2 City, hit a rare volume of 10727. All this clearly shows that the Chinese stock market has ended up to 5-year bear market, re-entered a new round of massive bull market. And this conclusion has not even reached for the securities industry, as well as society as a whole recognized.
However, as the majority of investors, we are left to further Q: That's a big bull market can last more than long?
We believe that the new round of the bull market should be able to continue for 5 years. Is currently beginning the first year.
1, this a big bear away five years, a new round of the bull market should be able to continue for 5 years.
The great bear market began in 2001, to the end of 2005, exactly five years away. From the theory, the new bull market is also one should be able to walk for 5 years. Bear and bull stock market movement is a contradiction, the stock market is in bear cattle to complete its turn in the cyclical movement. The bear is both cattle with each other, but are interdependent and mutually conditions. The continuing bear market dropped sharply on the one hand to digest the bull market profits generated by a large number of disks, the amendment goes far beyond the value, the lofty stock prices. The other hand, for the next bull market in a sustained, significant increase, create conditions for a solid foundation. Also, the big bull market continued to rise drastically, on the one hand is a retaliatory increase in large bear market slump, the amendment below the value, of great investment value of the stock prices. The other hand, a major bear market for the next generation, creating a decline of space and power.
Clearly, the bear and the bull market is alternating, periodic motion. Their role is equally important. Of course, because China's stock market is not short-mechanism, resulting in the bull market to make money. Therefore, people prefer the bull market.
Therefore, bears, cattle are also roughly the same duration. Therefore, according to a major bear market in general go on a 5-year fact. We speculate that the new round of massive bull market should be able to continue for 5 years. Anti-overshoot, why major bear market could take five years, the new round of massive five-year bull market can not go it!
Second, go on a five-year bull market, leading to a big bull market that the factors that produce a more solid, more likely to walk for 5 years.
Went on a five-year bull market, from 96 years to 2001. This shows that the bull market entirely is likely to continue for 5 years. "5-year bull market" is not a new heavens and shortage of night Tan, but a fact of life in real life.
The last round of the causes of the bull market is: to cut interest rates eight times the cost of capital substantially reduced the community, so that large-scale investment capital into the stock market, triggering a major bull market. Of course, ,93 - 96 years, the big bear market stock prices fell so completely different, also the main reasons.
This causes a big bull market is:
One ,01 - 05-year bear market share prices fell to a low of great investment value.
Second, the share reform to make China's stock market institutional innovation to address the chronic problem of China's stock market.
Third, the renminbi appreciation, triggering a global asset re-evaluation of the yuan.
Comparison between the two, the new bull market causes a more profound and sustained stronger, more influential, so its vitality at the very least should be on a very big bull market. That is, on a sustained bull market in five years, a new round of the bull market can continue to at least 5 years.
Third, from the last round of a major bear market and bull market duration of the comparison to see.
Let us take a look at the last round of a major bear market and bull market on the duration of the comparison: the last round of a major bear market arising from 93 years in May, ending on 96 January. Lasted for 32 months. That is nearly three years. In the previous bull market resulting from a 96-year in February and concluded in June 2001. A total of 65 months. The ratio between bear and bull market is 1 to 2. Namely, the duration of the bull market in a big bear market duration nearly doubled. From this point of speculation: This is a major bear market starting from July 2001 to the end of November 2005. A total of 53 months continuous. So, the new bull market should be able to continue to a total of 106 months or 8 years. From this, it is estimated the new bull market can continue a five-year, there is a certain degree of conservatism.
