Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-05-02
Now back to the stock market is a zero-sum game of the three theories, the author believes that these three versions exist more or less inappropriate place.
First, the stock market is not a big casino for the following reasons: First, the stock market corresponds to the real economy is the country's economic lifeline, the corresponding casino is made of colorful plastic chips; secondly, the stock market can be raised, casinos can not; third, the stock market so that enterprises can quickly become bigger and stronger, the casino does not have this function; fourth, the stock market can optimize the allocation of resources, casino no such function; Fifth, an important component of the capital market as the stock market can be used as the macro-control of the carrier, casino Nature no such function; sixth, as an important component of capital markets, the stock market can reduce financial risks, casinos can not. Here I want to clarify is, why is the stock market bubble burst in Japan and Southeast Asia caused the financial crisis, while the U.S. stock market bubble burst in 2000, he was not lead to financial crisis? The main reason is that the U.S. has a strong capital market and its real estate financing from different sources. In the U.S., real estate mortgage financing depends mainly on the securitization of mortgage products to get up the completion of the capital markets, while in Japan and Southeast Asia, real estate mortgage financing is mainly by banks to complete. In fact, the stock market bubble burst is not terrible, terrible is that it will lead to house prices fell sharply, if the mortgage financing primarily in banking, while prices are falling, banks are unable to sell off these mortgage assets, so the loss will be more as more and more, resulting in more and more bad debts accumulated to a certain extent is the bank failures, financial crisis. In the United States is different, when prices are falling, mortgage securities and equity products, as long to resolve its crisis in the daily price fluctuations in the. Now, the largest U.S. brokerage asset size has been larger than the largest U.S. bank's asset size, which is thought-provoking, its strong capital market is also obvious.
Second, the brokerage commissions and government stamp duty tax is not approximately equal to the sum of total net profit. Such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2006 a total of 1474 listed companies net profit of 378.1 billion yuan, in 2007 the central level, local governments and private enterprises into the assets of about 2,000 billion yuan, profits of listed companies increased by 15% in terms of gross profit in 2007 will reach record record 634.8 billion yuan. Look at brokerage commissions and stamp duty, according to Shanghai and Shenzhen 270 billion yuan turnover is estimated that approximately one-year turnover of 64.8 trillion yuan, of which about 194.4 billion yuan 3/1000 stamp duty, brokerage commissions 129.6 billion yuan, both total 324 billion yuan . Regardless of its high or low, both the size does not exceed the total profit in 2006 is an indisputable fact. Followed by the stamp duty and brokerage commissions should be excluded from zero-sum game the scope of qualitative analysis. The third is that even allowed to take into account stamp duty and commission and brokerage commissions and stamp duty factors, tax revenue is approximately equal to the sum of total net profit, the stock market is a zero-sum game is still a pseudo-proposition, because the stock represented by the company's plant and equipment is in line with inflation continuously value-added, the value of the stock market is to rely on earnings and assets of the central value of two-wheeled drive will from time to time on the obvious, on one level, and that this process is irreversible, which is why the U.S. stock market rose to 100 points from the current 13,000 points, China's stock market has also risen from 100 points, 4,000 points now causes. And the stock market will fluctuate around the hub of higher value, it is this against the inevitable rise of inflation and long-term look at the characteristics of the parties to ensure the market and win-win situation, this is the real market lies its charm.
Third, the key to this argument is that when the stock market keeps falling sideways or rise up or go back to the origin or the ascent back to the origin, it may also assume that the middle can not have new stock issuing and listing and dividends and so on, that is total market value of the stock market does not change when the stock market is a zero-sum game. However, the total stock market value of the same is not normal, abnormal, according to an overview of the conclusions would not apply to normal stock market. Second, this argument is still not satisfied at what the stock market regardless of price, regardless of the transaction at any time, the winner is always the total profit the total loss is equal to the loser in this zero-sum game set up the necessary conditions. Third, even if the stock market index does not rise not fall, or rise up further by dropping back to fifth straight back to the origin or the origin of its underlying real economy has also been very different, according to level of profitability in 2006, the average of each trading day, 15 billion into the stock market value, as well as the stock represented by the company's plant and equipment is constantly changing in line with inflation, meaning that even if the sideways stock market, its price-earnings ratio and book value are constantly changing, the When the origin or rise up further by dropping back to fifth straight back to the origin, its price-earnings ratio and book value already beyond recognition.
Can not be denied that the domestic stock market is a speculative element, there are also the phenomenon of illegal, but if so they made the stock market directly with the casino and a zero-sum game to be tied to an objective on a number of misleading investors. In fact, China's current stock market and the illegal spread of the rampant speculation and lack of supervision in 1900, the U.S. stock market is very similar to part of the development issues. Speculation and investment in the stock market has always been complex, the key is how to curb speculation, the United States in this respect, the more successful, it is worth learning, it is one way to levy heavy taxes for short-term profit, tax reform in 1997 before the holding period for less than 18 months, capital gains tax rate is 40%, greater than 18 months of 20%. After 1997, the holding period of less than 18 months, capital gains tax rate of 20%, greater than 18 months, 10%; method two is to violate laws and regulations impose heavy penalties.
