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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Investors are in contact every day fundamentals of information and various research reports, every day there are a number of experts to give you analysis of market supply and demand, as well as macro-economic environment, investors trading results and has not been any major change Why? Because investors do not know how to take advantage of fundamental analysis. In fact, in terms of ordinary investors, fundamental analysis of what features and functions are unclear, most of them are either blindly or reject the fundamentals of doing so if the fundamentals for them is almost nothing in terms of natural meaning.
How do we position the role of fundamentals in the transaction do?
The fundamentals of a generally contain large amounts of data and charts, and a good report of the data not only comprehensive, but very accurate, most of them are the researchers collected more than themselves, and some even the fields themselves to trade or visit come. Researchers through the analysis of large amounts of data and charts, will arrive at a conclusion: the future market up or down more likely that they adopted the analysis of large amounts of data and charts to predict the market's future. This report is definitely written with a value, but also to be recognized industry experts and academics will naturally get most of the investors. In fact, we recognized not only the report, more a recognition of this analysis method and spirit, as human beings to develop to today's level is relying on such an analysis method of thinking come. Therefore, many investors would be natural to think in this analysis approach to trading, but he soon found that it seems difficult to do in the transaction, the market trend often run counter to fundamental analysis he received, and the The analysis also runs counter to many experts! This is really confusing! Why? Because he was not aware that the study could be recognized experts and scholars, but can be recognized by the market it is difficult to determine the market is the only authority and the referee!
A lot of people through the fundamentals of the market to predict the future, they always think that by studying the fundamentals of the market's future direction can be drawn, they mistakenly thought that the role of fundamental analysis is to predict the future of the market, they mistakenly thought that master a great deal of information can grasp the fundamentals of the future. I think this is a fundamental mistake. Researchers such as life, will live in pain because they are doing will never be able to achieve something - to predict the future. Quotes may be in a meeting in which they do very well there are many such examples, but never someone or agency can be stabilized by continuous analysis of the fundamentals of the market has always been to make the right judgments, or the international market for large The investment fund will not do two-way deal. You should be aware that investment funds of large-scale power than any of our domestic company must be strong, if they be able to know the fundamentals of the future direction of the market, then make unilateral trade is much higher than the profits it was not doing two-way trade profits? Fund manager is not foolå‘€. I say this not to say that the fundamentals of no effect, but rather that fundamental analysis features not predicting the market, its role more of is: tell us the reasons for fluctuations in market prices make us a clearer understanding and to understand the market, because they can not know anything about the situation on the fundamentals of the market price changes, but feel confused and frightened. Fundamental analysis does not predict the future direction of the market function, which we reap the benefits of this feature is the desire to impose it. Fundamental analysis is an objective to tell you what happened on the market and the market price is how to react, and in some cases, we simply can not even find a price change from the fundamental reasons, because:
1, no one can fully and timely grasp of fundamentals. Fundamentals, including many elements, in addition to commodity supply and demand, there are national and global economic conditions, policy, political, military, security and other factors, but also including weather, natural disasters, and so on. It can be said not only failed to individuals, or even there is no organization can fully understand the fundamentals, we can only say that many who know little understanding of just who, as to keep abreast of even more out of the question. The market will always price sensitive and you do not know the fundamentals of the situation, so you have to master the fundamentals of the information will never be comprehensive. Rather than comprehensive, timely information is not in terms of the transaction information is wrong, because you have mastered the information may not necessarily give you a profit, but you do not know the situation has often bring you harm. Market, often you can not understand the market, it means that the market has been the emergence of new changes you do not know. Market, there's always time you do not know the situation in the event.
2, the fundamentals are themselves dynamic and changing rather than static. Fundamental changes and market price of the future as unpredictable. The future market price of the fundamentals of the decision by the future, rather than from the current fundamentals of decision, we can not now grasp the fundamentals of the static analysis of the situation to predict future dynamics of the market. Many people often say: the fundamentals are very bullish, why prices fell? Prices have fallen below the cost price of the how is still down? Fundamentals can be a good price why not up? He is committed to the fundamentals of using a static dynamic market price of the corresponding problems, he always thought that the fundamentals ... .... Then the price should be ... .... That must exist between fundamentals and price of this causal relationship. In essence, the existence of this causal relationship, but the crux of the matter is that you must complete and timely grasp of the fundamentals of information is really only after the existence of this causal relationship.
3, the changes in fundamentals is always not keep up with changes in market prices. In fact, not a fundamental change in the price changes can not keep up, but rather investors to understand the fundamentals of the speed of change will always catch up the speed of changes in market prices. Changes in market trends is certainly because the market itself or the whole economic cycle of supply and demand fundamental changes have taken place in the result, funds do not change the transportation market trends. However, in any one market trend changes occur, we can know that the fundamentals are still in the original trend direction has changed the direction of the market, but investors still regard it as adjusted, because when the fundamentals also has not changed! Usually have to wait for prices to go back 1 / 3 or 1 / 2, we begin to worry whether the fundamentals change it? The turnaround in the market is it? Specifically, companies should feel very uncomfortable spot, while the high level of investors in futures positions have been the depth of hold-up, and this time a fundamental change in the fundamentals of various reports to appear. For example this year's soybean and cotton market is one such typical example.
Discussed above are fundamental analysis of the inadequacies of, or investors the fundamentals of the disadvantages caused by improper use. In fact, the fundamental analysis has its own advantages, it is this: the fundamentals will not easily be undergoing a fundamental change, once the market is some sort of trend, then this trend will not easily end, it will run for a long time, that is the nature of the fundamentals with a relatively stable, it will not change with the market price of the same as every day. Because any gains from the formation must be caused by the long bear trend. The long-term bear trend led to the decrease in supply, production capacity shrinkage and reduction in capital investment in this industry, this process is gradually formed. This state has always been a certain period will be extended to the market suddenly began to feel that goods in short supply, and then starting with the first reaction to the price that is rising, while prices increased profits, business began to increase investment, while the input from the beginning to the product listing is by no means a few days will be able to do so. Therefore, if a fundamental change in fundamentals lead to a new trend in the beginning, then we can think that the trend will continue, this time Ruozai with some simple technical tools, you can put to good use fundamental research to form the real trading profits, this is the fundamental analysis where the most valuable place.
In fact, the fundamental analysis of major function is to enable investors to better awareness and understanding of the present market situation, so that we can better keep up with the pace of market operation to make to adapt to the market trading strategy, and under the new circumstances adjust our trading scheme, rather than predict the market's future. In the transaction, we have to price based on the market as the center to carry out transactions, but the fundamentals of data can not be based on their own judgments as the center to carry out transactions, because we are to master the fundamentals of data is certainly not comprehensive, timely, , so we must pass the market price to test our analysis is correct. Fundamental analysis is akin to a comprehensive understanding of a person's family background, work, age, social relations, through this research to determine that person's future development direction, prospects and space. While technical analysis is that the market to make friends, it is cheap no matter your wealth of friends, as long as congenial temperament that is a good friend. If you really and the market to make friends, then you will be able to understand the market, trading signals. Technical analysis is through to read the market signals to trade.
Fundamentals and technical analysis of the role of fact are intended to enable investors to better understand the market so that investors can better keep up with the pace of progress and, therefore, to adapt to current market conditions to develop trading strategies, rather than to predict market future. So, essentially fundamental analysis and technical analysis is exactly the same, they do not have to predict market functions, by its very nature is to enable investors to understand the market more effectively by tracking the market.
