Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-24
Split share structure reform policy, has just come to an end an intensive introduction, a listed company launched a pilot program also makes a variety of investors, dazzled them. This is a matter of opinion of experts and scholars on the market 1:00 crowded.
Aside these programs and ideas, it is our first attempt to analyze the market performance of the pilot's Sany Heavy Industry, large shareholders intentions and its future positioning of simplified, perhaps from another perspective, outlines the post-split share Reform era a number of important market characteristics for investors are now beginning the next phase of investment opportunities in mining to provide some reference.
The market after the reform valuable
Recalled that in 2001 the non-tradable shares in circulation since the policy orientation of the evolution from direct market sell-off to the market looking forward to the net asset value of the Placing, to the current right price to pay, generally showing a tilt to the shareholders of the outstanding shares of the trend. If a longer-term perspective, with the equity value of thinking to see, and in the past compared to today in the split share is finally beginning to address the policy used when, for the outstanding shares of shareholders is undoubtedly the most beneficial.
Sany Heavy Industry cases from the point of view, the split share structure reform pilot project before the start of April 29, Sany closing price of 838 million (at the right price of re-diluted basis, following the same), plus 0.35 shares Major Holders and 0.8 yuan in cash, the actual cost of 5.61 yuan. After several months during the daily limit and the first two days of resumption of decline from June 30 closing price of 7.69 yuan. As long as the last two limit-on-board recovery in, at any point in time since 2005, Sany investors bought so far are profitable. It is worth noting that this year's decline in the broader market index was 13%.
From the market's overall perspective, the current average market price of 5 yuan, about 20 times price-earnings ratio for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dynamic price-earnings ratio for the 13 to 14 times. If the market as a whole, non-tradable shares to tradable shareholders, the shareholders pay the price is right 20%, the average stock price could be reduced to 4 yuan, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 blue-chip company's earnings may drop to 10 to 11 times. Such a standard, that is, in the international market, we can not say no investment value.
A rare win-win situation was finally
Data show that by the end of January, by the end of March, by the end of April and the end of June, largely in Sany Heavy Industry shares between 7-8 yuan, but by the end of June the shareholders holding tradable shares increased by 35%, so the actual costs fell by 35% . In other words, assuming that the index of this range is 1000-1100, as the index is calculated by the total capital and the current share price determined by two parameters, the stock still 7-8 yuan, the total capital stock has not changed, but the cost of circulating shares / income has gone through great changes. In accordance with static calculations, even if all the prices paid for companies in the auto-ex, share prices will fall, leading index fell, but the flow of the stock market value is not actually suffer any major losses.
Through the price paid, Sany Heavy Industry to the flow of major shareholders presented a 4200 million shareholders, so that it increased the original cost to 1.5 yuan, but the current market price is 7-8 yuan, a full five times more value-added profits.
The circulation of the original shareholders have been holding the cost of 15.56 yuan, coupled with the acquired right price, the cost reduced to 10.93 yuan, diluted to 5.5 yuan, although much higher than the major shareholders of the original cost, but also from the market price 40% of the space, although with major shareholders five times the value of earnings are not comparable, but there are still considerable profit space.
China's stock market the past 10 years of high IPO and the issuance of additional premiums, resulting in high costs of tradable shareholders. The reform of non-tradable shares on the price paid by shareholders although with a number of outstanding shares of the shareholders is expected to have the gap, but the end result is, after all, the reform of the outstanding shares of the shareholders also received a profit. This is a rare "win-win" outcome.
In order to find out the true meaning of forward-looking investment
Whether investors are right the injustice of history how sorry we should be in circulation shareholders may finally be profitable with the right commitment and happy about it. Have been "G" of the Sany Heavy Industry and the Taurus on the price of energy in the day suffered from an automatic compensation for ex. Chart in the coming months, the period of history will remain in the upper and lower shadow line, the final decision of the company's share price is its profitability and future prospects. Construction Machinery Industry and macroeconomic highly relevant, particularly highly correlated with the fixed-asset investment and industrial boom has been the high point in 2004, appeared in 2005 the downward trend appears a foregone conclusion.
However, we have to look at another big company market, controversy
Baosteel, even without the right price paid circulation of non-tradable shares at current prices, current and foreseeable future, its profitability is the ability to send, PE, interest rates have also shown a great attraction. We should see is that, QFII, social security, insurance funds, etc., as the new funding will not be too rigidly adhere to the historical cost, which is looking at the prospects for the future.
Forward-looking, this is our only way out.
Tradable share reform is completed, we expect a large proportion of some listed companies will be sent to share transfer and, if possible to do high performance, high prices cash. As a result, we could argue that, while economic growth will be lower, but the enterprise performance may not happen in a big decline, a listed company, after all, than the overall economy improves, more importantly, more than half of enterprises have high cash desire, there is to do high-profit impulse.
The next six months to a year, the market may still be at the right price game, digestive expansion pressure and the "new old", the pressure process. After exposure to two major stress, the market is expected to appear before a really big bull market.
Most investors now may be a more at a loss. Most companies on the price of the program uncertain, the program has been clear dozens of companies, its stock price still need to undergo a targeted expansion shocks. However, there is one thing we can know, that is until all of which eventually, after the dust has settled, the market focus and the focus must return to the competitiveness of enterprises and shareholder return up, those who have been seriously undervalued high-quality growth stock there will be a substantial price increase. Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are few second-line blue-chip, front-line broad-market index stocks, while a considerable part of the enterprise is the industry leader, has an internationally competitive, even at the stringent international standards for the valuation also has its investment value, if they can continue to reduce the circulating shares of the holding cost is far greater value for money. The future will be the first outside the capital, the most intense chase of the prime species.
Experienced a four-year bear market, an outline of the bull market has been gradually clear the new century, one of the largest market opportunities are coming, today, although the reform of opera has not yet reached a climax, but the practice of "buying the stock is to buy the future" stock market investors, is not it should now start thinking about post-split share structure reform strategy of the Nuggets era?
