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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Baosteel Warrants risks have a high, playing warrants to strictly stop-loss, there had been a lesson for Baosteel's listed warrants on last Monday after they favored by the short-term trader, day out in vogue in a single day more than 100% turnover generally. This hot scene, the industry they have the view that the price of Baosteel's warrants have been out of a reasonable range. Baosteel warrants because of the scarcity of T +0 trading system, make it there is scarcity premium, if all the shares or warrants listed on other species are introduced T +0 trading, Baosteel Warrants should naturally fall in scarcity premium would shrink.
Baosteel to buy shares or warrants to buy Baoshan Iron and Steel
“现在买权证可能还不如直接买宝钢股份。”海通证券的权证分析师杨海成面对《每日经济新闻》的采访这样表示? He was made an image of the comparison.
Assumptions, investors A and B investors to invest 10,000 yuan respectively, in Baosteel and Baosteel warrants, the current stock price of 4.6 yuan, warrant price of 2 yuan.
Then the due date, the two investors, earnings would be as in Table 1.
According to Table 1, only in maturity, Baosteel shares rose more than 40%, or 6.5 yuan, in order not to loss of investor B; as Baoshan Iron & Steel rose 70% to 80%, and B available to investors and investment A person close to the rate of return; if Baosteel or higher rate of return investors will outperform B owned by A, B risks facing investors is far greater than the investors in A. Because even if Baosteel below 3 yuan, investor A losses are limited, as long as Baosteel price is lower than 4.5 per investor B would lose all the capital.
Baosteel warrant price should be lower to what extent, can be more than the shares of Baoshan Iron and Steel is attractive? Formula is given here, when the warrant price of C, or the need for at least the number of shares, the investment warrants the due date in order to obtain not less than the rate of return investing in stocks (assuming the price is now 4.6 million), the results shown in Table 2.
Can be seen from the table, when the warrant price at 0.5 yuan, when Baosteel rose 10 percent as long as the buying warrants on at least not worse than buying stocks.
It is worth noting that if the misjudgments, the investment warrants the loss is much larger than invest in stocks. At present, Baosteel committed in 2005, 2006, 2007, cash dividends of not less than 0.32 yuan per share. If the 8 months following price below 4.53 yuan, a major shareholder will spend 4 billion yuan holdings. In addition, the gold company's research report predicts that the performance of the next two years Baosteel 0.80 yuan and 0.71 yuan. So, to warrant expiry date, how well can Baosteel how high up it? Each investor has its own view, warrants the price implied by the market considers the various possibilities. If an investor is prepared to hold maturity that Baosteel rose 30% in less than year, then the warrant price of 1.139 yuan less than it is worth buying.
Baosteel's highest share price (based on the right to pre-complex) is equivalent to the current 6.14 yuan. Shares are currently at the early high pressure line connected into the bottom line is the strong support for 4 yuan, net asset value is around 3.6 yuan a strong support level at the frontline. Accordingly, there are industry insiders believe that 4 yuan can buy Baosteel, 0.5 yuan in the vicinity can buy warrants.
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Hong Kong Yu-feng
Money described the Baoshan Iron and Steel, managing director Chen Maofeng warrants, "It is magical, the risk could erupt at any time." He laughs, people tend to like to speculation who are not familiar with. Warrants in the 10-year absence, the Mainland stock market again after coming to market, investors have such enthusiasm is understandable, but the price of Baosteel Warrants have long gone beyond 0.6 yuan to 0.7 yuan a reasonable range.
So, how to judge whether the price of a warrant a high level? Managing Director of Hong Kong Yu-Feng Chen Maofeng fiscal management that the principal should look at implied volatility (Hong Kong known as the implied volatility) and the underlying shares the history of the relationship between volatility. Implied volatility is a market-related assets (being shares or index) volatility for some time expected, and the warrant price is changed in the same direction. In general, implied volatility and historical volatility is not equal, but it should be more or less. To Baosteel Warrants, for example, implied volatility after the listing of 60%, even in the Thursday had more than 100%, while the historical volatility of underlying shares, but about 30%. It is clear that the price of Baosteel Warrants have been greatly overestimated, stakes are high.
A similar situation recently occurred. For example, the recent listing of Bank of Communications warrants, implied volatility by as much as 30%. This is mainly because the market is expected to pay the listing, the performance of a relatively high, but also have "fried new" ideas at work.
Strict stop-loss option worth looking forward to
The main feature of warrants leverage, are up 1% of the shares, warrants may rise 10% to 50%. But once the shares are down, warrants have fallen even faster, and after the expiration of the right If not, warrants will be worthless, so invest in warrants must be strict stop loss.
Chen Maofeng introduction, in order to reduce fluctuations in prices of underlying shares to the nest round of the risks, warrants issued in Hong Kong are generally well-known companies with equity-linked, multi-texture good for blue chips and red chips, and with warrants linked to underlying shares must be a flow of 100 billion market capitalization of more than listed companies. However, in mature financial markets, such as the U.S., investors are more familiar with derivative products are options, not warrants. According to Chen Maofeng analysis, options in relation to warrants, there are many advantages. First of all, options are standardized products in futures trading, quotes consistent with the positive stock price fluctuations there are always new options available. In contrast, warrants are issued by the broker and was responsible for pricing, circulation is limited to a certain extent, and under certain conditions, market makers may not accept the goods, causing liquidity problems. From the investor's point of view, options should be more worth looking forward to variety.
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