Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-25
Source: Huatai Securities Author: Chien-Hua Zhuang
Stocks in 1700 upside-point occasion to do more power is obviously insufficient, turnover continued to shrink, stocks liveness greatly reduced. Yesterday, pushing the broader market in the petrochemical industry, today's Gone, is still estimated to privatization, the opportunity to share reform and other commonplace speculation it is difficult to have good continuity. More obvious characteristics of new shares of speculation yesterday, listing crazy speculation hit Germany and the United States chemical industry, was Run-electronics, today, one after another into a relatively large adjustment, it is estimated in the coming period is difficult to have a good performance. The Bank of China is to adjust the basic trend since listing on the market's impact is more than empty.
We believe that the current lack of motivation to do more broader market, mainly from three aspects:
First, the rapid expansion of the market caused by the financial pressure, a series of large capitalization stocks will soon release the demand for capital than ever before, Datong-Qinhuangdao railway purchase fund has not yet thawed, the ICBC, postal savings banks, the National Air and other heavyweights are accelerating large-cap stocks listed on footwork. It is estimated that this year, shares, refinancing, capital requirements will amount to up to 2,000 billion, which in turn mainly concentrated in the second half of the implementation of a lack of funds is evident surface.
Second, the macro-control will continue, and may continue to strengthen expectations. In the first half of this year, China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 10.9% year on year growth rate 0.9 percentage point faster than in the first quarter of this year, accelerating 0.6 percentage points. The first half of the whole social fixed assets investment 4.2371 trillion yuan, up 29.8% year on year growth rate accelerated by 4.4 percentage points. Excessive growth of fixed asset investment will eventually lead to excess capacity and financial risks continue to deteriorate. In particular, some investment projects which are low-level redundant investment, return on investment problems. This problem has been caused by the central authorities attach great importance to the second half will continue to strengthen and improve macro-control, targeted measures to address the excessive growth of investment in fixed assets and other outstanding issues, which the negative impact on the overall market is obvious.
Third, the lack of variety of valuation advantage. The current A-share market valuations attractive platform for additional funding has been greatly weakened, for example, the current mainstream varieties of food and beverage industry, the dynamics of price-earnings ratio as high as 30 times more, in some strong dynamics price-earnings ratio stocks and even 50 times. This is also reflected in the aerospace industry, new energy and many other hot topics shares. Although the performance of fast-growing support, but in the current valuation of platform, again rose to do? The answer is obviously can not be optimistic. Because the objective is not new money enters the sedan chair, but to be able to effectively access to investment income. A large number of industry analysts study dynamic price-earnings ratio has been the basis of calculation of the earnings per share in 2007 and even pulled in 2008, which means that these stocks share price has begun to overdraft 07,08 years of performance, not only so, how much money there will be eager to approach it now? If you have to wait 2-3 years to get the benefits of this space is not large, it is better to wait for iron and steel stocks significantly underestimate the investment of such species.
Such a phenomenon in the disk also has a clear reflection, like this week, G Maotai, G Changyu, G Wuliangye, etc. have a strong performance Jinliang Ri is very difficult to go completely without the pre-primary Shenglang Quotes in Zhang Sheng Quotes characteristics in one go, which shows the current point and a massive money involved is not much, on the contrary by the rebound lighten up a lot of money then.
Of course, the current market decline will not be room for large, on the one hand, compared to H shares of Bank of China has a price advantage that may arise at any time to support the market moves, on the other hand, the first day of IPOs included in the index calculation method intensive period of a new stock issue of the inflated role of the index will be very obvious, so even if the index break 2000 points, for investors who may have little meaning.
The current investment strategy should be to control the risk-based, may be concerned about the valuation is not high quality banking, real estate stocks, short-term hot stocks can be concerned about the concept of independent innovation, such as medicine, science and technology stocks.
